Menor the Destroyer

I mean yeah but that's like saying Saturday decreases from Friday. FFH's July 3rd number won't have previews.

Transformers 1 didn't

If everything else can combine to be flat Asia will easily put it over. I don't see it being flat there.

I just threw the flat/below HC thing out there as a point of curiosity, I still think it'll increase. I'm not sure we will have a good idea of the trajectory until Friday. And yeah if it did go under Homecoming that would certainly be a domestic disappointment, there is absolutely no way it should flat or decrease, it has everything going in its favor and increased by significant margins over Homecoming in China, SK, and Japan. But I don't think it will. Even if that does happen, if it manages to still pull out 1 billion worldwide I'd still label it a success overall, though a disappointment domestically.

Iron Man would have affected it in other countries also, IM3 did very well in Asia. That further accentuates the point.

Same factors would apply to USA. In fact TASM2 was received worse domestically than in Asia so it should have been even more deflated.

Wouldn't the same factors apply to China/SK/Japan? Spiderverse did better domestically but I don't think it was so huge as to create fatigue. But as long as it doesn't decrease from HC we are good for a billion so this is all just a matter of icing.

I have no expectations for the 6-day until I see today's number. Yesterday performed very weirdly with $20 million in presales leading to only $36 million pure OD, who knows how this will go from now on.

One thing if it does open to 160-170 6-day then that's probably around what Homecoming would have gotten with the same sort of calendar configuration. So then it would be curious why this movie increased by a good amount from Homecoming in Asia but not domestically. Yeah WOM but that wouldn't affect the openings too much.

Presales 68k, down 25% from yesterday.

Presales based on Cinemark was also half of yesterday. However yesterday had extremely poor walkups. Hopefully it improves today.

The "better" refers to PostTrak scores after the first evening.

Even IW didn't get an A+, only Avengers, BP, and Endgame have managed that and those were three uber breakout hits. I would be surprised if FFH managed it.

Worse than BP (and IW and Endgame). On par with Civil War but that was a weird situation with seemingly very positive WOM not matching with legs. Better than CM. A Cinemascore seems very likely. One thing is that all of the above movies had their ratings after previews whereas Spidey has had a full OD already, doesn't change the conclusion much though.

In line with an A Cinemascore.

I thought the post I quoted was referring to the critical reception of the MCU.

Maybe, you could be right. We'll see how it goes. I just wouldn't put too much stock in those comps (or any comps, since we don't have any great ones).

Iron Man 3? That hardly got great reviews.

Neither of those you mentioned are good comps at all. SM2 had July 4 and 3 on weekends so it basically gained nothing from them (in fact it may have even been hurt by July 4 hitting its first Saturday). Transformers 2 opened on June 30th and thus gained nothing from the holiday either.

FFH OD presales were more than double Homecoming OD but actuals were about the same.

Guess it depends then. Hard to say but I still doubt the effect was more than 5 million.

Not so in the USA, and that would have to make up a decent portion of discount giving theaters for it to make a big difference like you're suggesting.

Not all discounts are 50%, that tends to be the max but at my theater it's more like 30%. Even with all 50% discounts (very very high estimate) and assuming 40% of theaters (very very high estimate) gave the discount and assuming that demand would have stayed the same without the discount the difference would be 7.2 million, so the true difference was likely much less than that.

Even if 25% of theaters gave the discount it would only affect the gross by 3-4 million max (assuming an average discount of 30%). Bigger factor imo is that it was a pure weekday with no holiday or holiday the day after. We'll see how today goes.

My local actually gave a discount on some evening shows but not others. I suspect a decent fraction of theaters may have given the discount out of habit since it's become such a big thing now.