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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    Lion King Friday: Theaters: 232 Showings: 6547 (+756) Tickets Sold: 121954 (+26615) Tickets Available: 882221 (+69253) Estimated ATP: 11.07 Estimated Sales: 1350042 (+286,636) Estimated Nationwide Sales (note: multiplier adjusted down to 8 from 9): 10.8 million (+2.3 million) Following CM's Pulse ratios: 2.6, 3.6, 4 for Friday presales around 21 million. Following TS4's Pulse ratios: 2.6, 4.5, 6.8 for Friday presales around 25 million.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    Note:Based on DW data I lowered my multiplier of estimated Cinemark sales to estimated total sales to 8x from 9x, so that number has been adjusted TLK Thursday: Theaters:232 (+1) Showings: 3906 (+287) Tickets Sold: 102339 (+15445) Tickets Available: 475051 (+21173) Estimated ATP: 12.55 Estimated Sales: 1,284,585 (+191213) Estimated Total Sales: 10.3 million (+1.5 million) If TLK plays like CM the next days should be something like 1.5 million, 2.3 million, 4.6 million + late walkups of say 2 million so about 21 million. If it plays like TS4 then it will be more like 1.5 million, 3.6 million, 8.4 million + late walkups (again say 2 million) or 26 million. I think the 1st case is more likely given how much it's sold so far. Btw the CM and TS4 trends are drawn from Pulse.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    Huh? Where are you getting this from. Patterns have barely changed.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    I mean these Atom deals have happened before and I've never seen them make a huge difference with comps
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Estimated ATP/Cinemark sales doesn't account for that, it's only intended turned account for different ATP between days for example July 4th ATP being way lower than 3rd or discount Tuesdays, on addition to different levels of 3D/PLF penetration. I account for the kids tickets by giving it a smaller multiplier of Cinemark sales to nationwide sales than FFH had for it's OD.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Isn't that a press screening though?
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    Sat I haven't been tracking since it should be more or less predictable from OD. The trend between previews and Friday is pretty healthy though as will be shown in this post. Thurs: Showings: 3619 (+14) Theaters: 231 Tickets Sold: 86894 (+9985) Tickets Available: 453878 (+435) Estimated ATP: 12.58 Estimated Sales: $1,093,372 (+120765) Estimated Nationwide Sales: $10 million (+$1 million) Fri: Showings: 5791 (-5) (not sure what happened here but it probably didn't make a huge difference) Theaters: 232 Tickets Sold: 95069 (+14383) Tickets Available: 812968 (-804) Estimated ATP: 11.19 Estimated Sales: $1,063,406 (+$154,262) Estimated Nationwide Sales: $9.5 million (+$1.5 million) Btw @Charlie Jatinder if Friday presales on that morning were say $23 million then what would you predict for the day?
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Well OD presales overall were very deceptive for FFH, it's OD was massively presale heavy even accounting for it being a weekday. But as TLK has a normal OW pattern it'll be a lot easier to predict.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    So now Endgame's record-breaking OW is being used to devalue its gross. That's ridiculous. It's a credit to the MCU's continued success that so many people were desperate to see it as soon as possible. Btw if we're going to account for market expansion then Endgame having increased competition from streaming and other entertainment options should be accounted for as well.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Thursday: Showings: 3615 (+11) Theaters: 231 Seats Sold: 76909 (+5397)/453443 (+702) Estimated ATP: 12.65 Estimated Total Sales: 972607(+66097) Estimated Nationwide Sales: $9 million (+$1 million due to rounding) Friday: Showings: 5796 (+22) Theaters: 232 Seats Sold: 80686 (+8385)/813772 (+3724) Estimated ATP: 11.27 Estimated Total Sales: 909144 (+90689) Estimated Nationwide Sales: $8 million (+$1 million) Bit of a slowdown today but show count growth was also much smaller. Next week should see a big growth in showtimes and hopefully a big bump in sales as well.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    I'd be very surprised if Thor wasn't in Avengers 5
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Endgame was an April release tbf, but yeah it would be very impressive
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    Yes for both. Final week bump will be key.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    TLK Thursday: Showings: 3604 (+143 since Thursday night) Theaters: 231 Seats Sold: 71512/452741 (+10514 since Thursday night) Seats Available Per Theater: 1960 (107% of Avengers: Endgame at the same point) Estimated ATP: 12.68 Estimated Sales: 906516 (+130788) Estimated Nationwide Sales: 8 million (+$1 million) TLK Friday: Showings: 5774 (+143 since Thursday night) Theaters: 232 Seats Sold: 72301/810048 (+12371) Seats Available Per Theater: 3492 (98% of Avengers: Endgame at the same point) Estimated ATP: 11.32 Estimated Sales: 818455 (+137141) Estimated Nationwide Sales: 7 million (+$1 million) Keep in mind the estimated nationwide sales is conservative, based on FFH OD the true sales could be as high as 9 million and 8 million respectively. Either way, excellent numbers. As long as it doesn't flatline in the final week $20 million previews and $60 million true Friday seem quite in reach.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    I think it'll need to start bumping in presales after TLK opens. Right now all buzz is focused on that. That tracking is definitely interesting though.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    Maybe...we'll have to see how it goes. Depends on how many people use that deal. But that's why we have multiple comps.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah it's a nationwide estimate, based on some of @Charlie Jatinder's statements about FFH presales during it's opening week it seems the theaters I track make up 10-12% of market share. Obviously the share may fluctuate but it gives a decent rough idea. @VenomXXR yep and TS4 was similarly presale heavy to I2 and JW:FK so 200 million is looking pretty good.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    Doing some conservative estimations. Based on Cinemark sales I'd say Lion King is at about $21 million in presales. Based on @Deep Wang's numbers for CM (CBM but it did have a similar total at the same point) its presales multiplied by 2.5 from now until release, if TLK does the same it's looking at 54 million in total PS.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah, I mixed up your post and the one that you were quoting.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/star-wars-the-force-awakens-surpasses-100m-in-advanced-ticket-sales-report.html This is where we all got the 50-60 million for OW figure. Odd discrepancy between the two sources, although imo the independent sampler is probably less trustworthy than people who have access to actual numbers. Plus if Christmas day was bigger in presales than OW Saturday and Sunday there's absolutely no way that the 94.5% number is true.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    Rush to avoid spoilers = wanting to experience the story without having it ruined = content. Avatar was successful because it gave people something they'd never seen before in a really beautiful and immersive way, hence Avatar was successful due to visuals/effects advancement. This is not a knock on Avatar, it absolutely earned its success and Endgame was nowhere near as revolutionary with visuals as it was. But Endgame's spectacle, while good, was barely highlighted or even shown in the marketing, wasn't a huge step forward technologically, and was definitely not the main draw for the movie. Endgame was successful because people wanted to see the endings of the characters they'd become attached to as well as the continuation of the story they saw in IW. Thus Endgame was successful due to its content/story. Also, saying that "nobody was having a conversation about Endgame" is just completely wrong. It dominated discussions like I'd never seen before and pretty much everyone in my social circles wanted to talk about it after they'd seen it. In fact I'd say more people were having a conversation about Endgame than any other movie I've experienced.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    I actually do think SW and Marvel should generally be reasonable comps against one another (assuming they're from the same year or two to account for higher PS loading every year), just not Endgame because it's total PS was so ridiculously high (although if TROS presales are higher than I expect, it could be a factor). A lot of times IW's supposedly lower PS is cited when saying SW is so much more PS heavy than Marvel but the 50 million number that gets thrown around is from the Friday before release, and from Pulse IW's last few days weren't that far behind EG (although they both hit the cap a lot). But still, Endgame added like 60-70 million after its Friday so I think it's reasonable to say that IW could have added 40-50 million. This would make its total PS 90-100 million, so it's PS for OW only was probably higher than TFA and TLJ.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    Holiday season makes a much bigger difference than that. I think IW presales for OW was something like 93% of its total PS and I assume Endgame's ratio wouldn't be that much lower. Plus Endgame's 120-140 was only from the Monday of the week it opened, it definitely went higher to probably the 160-170 million range (estimated from DW data @Thanos Legion). As did TFA I believe since that 100 million figure is from its Wednesday morning, but it makes a difference in the ratio. The big thing with TFA was that Christmas Day took up such a large portion of presales that it was higher than OW Sunday. That's why that ratio of OW PS/total PS was so low.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    I don't think Endgame will be a good comp for anything, even TROS
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    In that case shouldn't we mention it for Avatar when it beat Titanic. After all Titanic surely sold many more tickets
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