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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    Problem for FFH is this week it's basically impossible for it to go on a tear like CM did because TS4 is shifting huge numbers of tickets. TS4 has sold 34158 tickets on Pulse for today, that makes it very difficult for anything else to do that kind of number.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    Also, Endgame is getting a bigger bump in sales than I anticipated. It's sales for FSS are way higher than anything except TS4, Annabelle, and Yesterday. I don't know how much of a bump it'll get but it isn't gonna be a total whiff.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah that's the only one I can think of either, BaTB barely beat Civil War in total PS so I would expect BvS to have been above it, and since TLK took that record from BaTB it makes sense
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    TROS first day will be the second biggest this year by a good margin, but I doubt it will be anywhere near Endgame (sorry @Porthos).
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    It won't until the second week before release (July 8th)
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    I will wait and see. By the time TLK appears on the akvalley report page (July 8th) the effect of competition should normalize somewhat. After that point Fallen Kingdom should serve as an ok comp (given that it's presales for the last 2 weeks were deflated by I2).
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    Looks like the Pulse for yesterday was definitely deflated by competition. Something to keep in mind going forward.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Btw for those who are worried about the frontloading of FFH presales onto Tuesday, it's sales for Day 2 and 3 are 230% and 300% of those days for AMATW at the same point (Day 1 (MN + OD) is 332% of AMATW (previews+OD) at the same point). Actually it's utterly destroying AMATW in all metrics, and that made 99 million in its first 6 days. I'd be pretty surprised if Spidey couldn't at least double that.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    I think so, but it won't be that useful until final days as Ant-man had very backloaded presales.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Nah, Pulse only shows a sample of tickets, and it only shows sets instead of individual tickets. Endgame sold millions of tickets on Fandango alone on its first day, not even counting those from chain websites.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    CM comp suggests 28 million MN+OD, AMATW comp suggests 110 million MN+OD (AMATW had a very short presale run). The pace yesterday was 40% of CM, 215% of AMATW, which suggests a final of 110k and 185k for MN+OD on Pulse respectively (then how you interpret those numbers is based on whether you think CM or AMATW is a better comp). I think it will be closer to 120-130k as AMATW had a very strong last couple of days.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    No idea, it's just one hour and I assume these sales will be a lot more online loaded since its mostly hardcore fans.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    Endgame jumped to 4th in latest Pulse hour. I guess the sales for the "rerelease" have started.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    I thought most theaters weren't honoring the discount. If they are, I will have to rethink my comps.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    Should retake the lead from Venom by midnight right.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    Summer vs spring release makes a huge difference for Pulse
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    I don't usually track Mondays as Pulse becomes a smaller portions of sales and thus less reliable each day after OW
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    Extremely strong start for FFH today, hope it keeps up
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    I am not convinced about 25 million in previews for TLK yet, but we will see. It's not an easy number to reach, especially for a family-oriented film.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    IW - 29k EG - Pulse crashed, from the general ratio of theater sales at chains it would probablyhave hit the 4k cap every hour it was on sale that day and ended up with 60k or so, but if Pulse didn't cap people on this thread estimated it would have done something in the 300-400k range
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    6*I2 opening is 1.096 billion. Thus, "With TLK opening to 250M, did Disney leave Avengers: Endgame on the table this weekend?"
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    I think @VenomXXR is thinking a bit small here. Using I2 as a comp, TLK is heading for the first ever BILLION DOLLAR DOMESTIC OW. Every single lost dollar, every single underperformance or flop has led up to this moment. The King will arise.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    BRB making the club. In all seriousness, I wouldn't be surprised to see Deadline make some calculation like that. "The Lion King is tracking for 200-300 million OW, with some believing it has a shot at 350"
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    No, because I expect TLK to outperform FK in the week-before and week-of. FK had to deal with I2 sucking a huge amount of buzz just one week before, whereas TLK opens 17 days after FFH.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    A few thoughts. If it hits 80-85k I would say that should be more indicative of a low 30s OD, reason being that compared to say Ant-man and the Wasp a lot of online sales that would have gone to previews would go to OD, so it's best to compare combined previews and OD, which for Ant-man was 81k. I'm not sure that CM is a good comp at all given that TS4 is still shifting large numbers of tickets, which will skew the Pulse numbers kinda low for Spidey (meanwhile, AMATW did have to deal with some of I2 and JW2's later weekends throughout the runup to its own OW), but if we use CM as a comp then it would imply more like a <20 OD which seems ridiculous to me. For the same reason, I think that OD will continue to be a huge percentage of Pulse sales, as it's acting like a combined previews+OD for online ticket buyers, which should help get OD to ~120k. That's the only way I can explain the trend that we're seeing on Pulse with the ridiculous Tuesday frontloading. If it does get to 120k I'd expect an OD of 45-50 comparing with the 81k of AMATW (which had 33 million previews+OD).
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