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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    About 120
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    Hopefully it gets some good walk ins to boost that up
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    Would point to a 10x multi, so probably 120 exact. Hope it can outperform that
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    What are you thinking for today?
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Friday seems like 36-38 from the pace so far, assuming it has a good increase in the next couple of hours, and assuming that previews come in close to 12 million. If they come higher than this would adjust accordingly
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Will finish at 39k or so on Pulse. Probably about $12m in previews
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    Setting my guess at 12.5 million for now.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Dragon 3 is not a good comp, it has consistently underestimate previews by big margins, I think maybe due to seasonal factors like people are more likely to pre buy in the winter. I2 + small upward adjustment should do the trick.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    Same day business from online sales tends to correlate with walkup business. It indicates there's more demand than earlier presales indicated, which should translate to higher walkups
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Excellent pace on Pulse the last few hours. It is definitely getting walk in business. Updating my projection from 12 to 13, could go higher if it continues to be this strong.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    So we will be switching hats then
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Won't happen. The presale distribution is only slightly less frontloaded than I2. The internal multiplier won't be above 12 imo.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    Ended with 64591, added 25770 on that day so it had 38821 at the beginning of the day. Toy Story at the very beginning of today had 22206, has added 4783 since then. Imo it'll end up with about 15-16k for the day and be at 38k, doesn't seem to be much movement from the ~60% of I2 that we have been seeing. Even the pure animation comps like Pets 2 and HT3 only suggest 13 million for previews. Gonna guess around 12 for now, in between I2 (suggests 11) and those 2.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    TS4 begins with 24724 on Pulse for Thursday at 9 am. If it's going to have a strong bump in same-day business (normally an indicator of walkup heaviness as well), that should be reflected in today's Thursday pace.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    Thing is most of that bump was done before reactions dropped. It had an extremely strong morning/early afternoon and the latest increases haven't been too different from that trend. @keysersoze123 it was in the 1400 range yesterday, so today was a strong increase.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    imo, it will take some time for any boost to happen. we will see. it was also already having a very strong trend on Pulse today.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    5 ET/2 PT
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah I'm also thinking 150 million. Wang should be more reliable than Pulse as he has actual sales.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    Yes that utter flop Fallen Kingdom, which made over 400 million domestic.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    The rate its going it would have exceeded CM without any reactions. With reactions, I am hoping for much higher. This Endgame "re-release" may also drive sales a bit, idk how that will affect things.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    FFH surging on Pulse today, it's already up to 1600/24 hours, OD has already added 200 tickets or so. Once social media reactions drop at 4 CT it should heat up even more.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    It generally works pretty well. For example with CM and Endgame I was able to use the Pulse pace to predict Wang numbers with good accuracy.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    If OD ends up being 225 million (high variance this far out), then 100+ should be locked
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    TS4 Fandango Report vs I2 TS4 (end of yesterday) - Thurs: 15234 (57% I2) (+2987) (58% of I2 pace), Fri: 19142 (57% I2) (+4898) (57% of I2 pace), Sat: 12949 (64% I2) (+2853) (64% of I2 pace), Sun: 6936 (59% I2), (+1549) (57% of I2 pace), Total: 54261 (59% I2), (+12287) (59% of I2 pace) As expected, didn't much pick up the pace against I2 yesterday. Today will be another big test.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    Shrek 2 > Finding Dory
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