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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    I think it can hit 200 but we will see. Seems like a more traditional conservative tracking projection, hopefully they learned from TS4.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    I think it will be high 8s, isn't it only IW, Endgame, and the GOTG movies (surprised by that) that have 9+ on Maoyan out of the MCU? Btw what was Captain Marvel's 3AM number.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    FFH hit my target for yesterday thanks to the late explosion, still on pace for 120k
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    Depends on how you define impressive. That is a very subjective word
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Hmm I feel like it hasn't really been promoted as much as CM premiere was.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Is FFH not having it's premiere today? I can't find any coverage of it. Was expecting a bit of a pulse bump from it but I'm not sure about that now.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    It doesn't have previews. Hence the OD is getting both preview and pure OD demand
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    By this logic the Friday of CM (insert any other movie with decent-to-great presales) would have been below the previews since its preview sales were above Friday at this point, and CM's Saturday would have dropped from its Friday for the same reason. That's why you can't really project the daily trend just from PS ratios. Both Day 2 and 3 are more than double AMATW at the same point, and well below CM at the same point, just like OD+MN is for CM and AMATW OD+previews.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    2019-06-26 10:00:00 1494 Toy Story 4 2019-06-26 10:00:00 317 Annabelle Comes Home 2019-06-26 10:00:00 289 Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) 2019-06-26 10:00:00 234 Avengers Endgame (2019) 2019-06-26 10:00:00 228 The Secret Life of Pets 2 4th now. You can look for yourself at http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    As long as it adds a decent amount tomorrow it will be well ahead of AMATW and SMH. I don't think CM is a good comp since that movie had extremely frontloaded PS.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    Eh, not really to your point about the PS. We can't really project anything from the PS since it's very OD loaded, but for example Fri and Sat are higher than Thursday. Depending on the drop from OD to Day 2 I think it will have a pretty solid trend. Looking at TASM's drops I think FFH will drop much better from Day 1 to Day 2 as it's going from non holiday to July 3 whereas TASM is going from July 3 to July 4 (movies tend to drop on the 4th). Then TASM dropped a further 32% on Thurs, FFH can probably match that since its going from July 3 to July 4. Judging from PS it will have strong increases on Fri and Sat and then an average Sun drop. Biggest unknown is the drop from OD to Day 2, that will determine the trajectory of the weekend.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    I am hoping for 250, but would be very happy with 200+. I think for 250 it may need OD more like 55 (so it will need to overperform Pulse comps), which is possible since it's final PS week is facing crazy competition from TS4, much higher than AMATW faced). But I won't get my hopes up too much, 200+ is very good.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    Still #3 on Fandango hourlies and it's actually increasing from yesterday. Way stronger than I expected, but it will also be much more online loaded than usual.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    33.55 now, heading for 34.2-34.3 in line with the projection.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm not very skilled with predicting the 6-day. I'd suggest if it gets that OD that 200 million is pretty much locked though, hard to say how much higher than that.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    Behind CM by a lot but that movie was extremely presale heavy. Better than AMATW, SMH.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    TASM had much higher midnights as a percentage of OD, and was the day before the 4th rather than 2 days. I think FFH will have a much better ratio.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    FFH added about 3k yesterday for MN+OD with overall sales 5k, 8k today (in overall sales) and 10k overall tomorrow will keep it on course for 120k final which should be 50 million OD (including midnights)
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    Because there aren't any previews except midnight (most people don't go for that and has small show count), so a lot of that demand gets put into OD.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    Ok, I guess my local probably just messed up or something (they allow discounted rates for all showings except the ones between 7:00 and 8:00, which probably-not-coincidentally are the ones that have sold by far the most tickets). So the effect should be pretty small.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    Worse.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    So my local appears to be allowing the discount for FFH on some showings but not others...can anyone else report if their theaters are allowing the discount or not? That will make a big difference for the OD
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    CM got 43k on its last day. I think FFH can match that. So it needs to be at 77k day before that, 27k Monday sales seems good as well so you are on point with the 50k by Sunday target. Won't be easy, but I think it's very doable. I am also including MN in my projection btw.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    Wait, are we talking about the number before OD (i.e., OD sales at end of Monday), or are we talking about the final Pulse number after OD (final at the end of Tuesday)? The latter is what I'm saying will hit 120-130k, it won't get close to that before the day-of.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    Reviews out Thursday. Also Endgame boost (whatever size it is) will be the whole 3-day weekend imo, the Saturday and Sunday ps are way higher than all but the 3 I mentioned as well as Friday.
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