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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    Another thing is that I'm now wondering if Fallen Kingdom will be a good comp to think about here. Very similar length of PS run (23 vs 25 days), very similar first days on Pulse, and Fallen Kingdom was as walkup heavy as TS4 or I2 according to Charlie.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    I am not sure if it will beat FFH. That had 8600 after 7 hours. Great start for a family film though
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    That would be very low. I'm thinking 120k+ for the final number. Keep in mind it should have huge sales on Monday since there aren't previews taking up attention, then I expect same day sales on Tuesday to be pretty strong as it is summer. But it's a very unpredictable trajectory since the weekend comes at a weird time before opening.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    Yes, agreed. I was just using that to project the final daily number lol.
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Very similar trend to FFH which had ~8600 after 7 hours. That finished with 13,600 for its first day, so I'm guessing TLK will get around 15k.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Nvm, misremembered Venom's number. Still, finally beat projections for a day.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    At 17.82 now
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    These sales, while good, are not indicative of anything close to that.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    What I meant was, BATB was as presale heavy as big CBMs of the time (Guardians 2 etc). But you're right that summer will also affect things. Hard to think of a good comp, tbh. Maybe I2 but even that was animation which makes it significantly more family heavy.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    IW did 29k in its first day on Pulse. That will be a better goal for TLK.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm not sure that TS4 is the best comp. If this plays like BATB it will be pretty presale heavy. OTOH if it plays like Aladdin it won't be, but Aladdin also had pretty poor buzz which probably forced it to be more walkup heavy.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    No. Only one I remember off the top of my head that was even close to this was FFH which had somewhere in the 1200-1500 range I think.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    This hour isn't fully updated though
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    My guess is this first hour on Pulse will be ~2500 all formats combined.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    Excellent
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    Problem is TLK huge sales are gonna throw another wrench in this. Not going to give out an actual prediction until we get closer, as my range right now is hardly helpful.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    Using CM OD + previews vs what I expect for FFH midnights+previews - 36 Using AMATW OD + previews vs what I expect for FFH midnights+previews - 61 I guess it will probably land in between these two.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    Very, very impressive start
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    I'd be perfectly fine with that, and based on how I expect presales to go that OD is what a CM comp will suggest. I just eyeballed an AMATW comp though and if it goes like I expect it's pointing at 65 or so. So I'm just going in between those numbers (summer movie, but more Pulse heavy than the family oriented Ant-Man)
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    Just being honest right now I'm expecting in the 50s for OD $250 million 6-day, 480-500 million DOM total. But I'm not going to panic or anything if it comes in way lower than that.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    I am getting 26795 for CM at end of today, where are you getting 32700. CM was able to basically tie it but Spidey's pace may overtake tomorrow depending on trend tonight. Different weekday/weekend schedule is affecting things in weird ways.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    Also, keep in mind that presales for summer releases tend to be significantly deflated. Ex: comping TS4's final Pulse sales to HTTYD3 would give a weekend # in the 80s. Thus CM may not be the best comp. AMATW was released in the summer and had drastically low #s compared to the early spring releases like CM and BP, comping it's final Pulse sales to Captain Marvel would have yielded a weekend of 49 million instead of 76. It's better to compare to something from the same season, but that yields its own problems because the only MCU summer comp is AMATW whose presales are way way below Spidey (like right now Spidey total 6-day PS is more than 3x AMATW was at 1 week before release), making it difficult to compare.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    I don't think it will have better Day 1 sales than IW. What the actual number will be I'm not sure, but IW didn't come close to crashing Pulse. Tomorrow is definitely gonna be fun though We'll see, it's a different situation than most MCU movies because we have TS4 opening just 11 days before, so it'll have a shorter amount of time to build buzz. I still have a good feeling about it though.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    I don't think TLK will be Pulse crashing levels of presales. I expect it to be more in the CM/FFH level of day 1 sales, but it will still skew things a bit.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    Not great yesterday, but with TS4 releasing I kinda expected that. I am thinking of bringing in an AMATW comp as well as CM, although those two movies had very different presale size.
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