Menor the Destroyer

Will reach about 37-38k at least once everything is updated, with even mediocre weekday bumps Endgame should get to 50m at @Deep Wang chain unless Fandango correlation breaks down. Very good bump today.

Oh I wasn't referring to you, your analyses are normally very levelheaded. But there were some in here who were claiming it was a lock due to the crazy overall presales which I don't think is true.

What was Baahubali 2's OW in the end?

I think Fri/Sat will indeed be the spots where it will really surge, even Sunday will probably be well over IW. I'm not saying Thursday can't beat the record, but people shouldn't be disappointed if it "only" does 55 million or something like that.

Can it beat BB2's overall presales record?

I think y'all are being a little too confident about the preview record. If you look at the data @Porthos and others have provided, its far from a lock (I might actually bet against at this point, but its close). Presales are insane yes, but that's for the whole OW, not just Thursday.

Well if it was flat then yes, but Endgame had a couple of relatively large hourly bumps, and generally the pop happens on Sunday so with the depressed Saturday it's not implausible that it would happen earlier. Still, with the last update being flat it seems that it was just hourly variation.

compared to yesterday same point?

Endgame up to 20.4% on MT, I wonder if the release week "pop" could already be starting.

It's weird because I would think they should increase, since people have more time to buy tickets.

Honestly the FSS numbers are so insane that I think it could even be more than 10% above IW (not based on anything hard, just eyeballing a comparison to the Thursday numbers), I mean even Sunday is having massive sales already and it seems like theaters have gone all out on adding the showings then.

Do you have any idea why presales decrease on weekends in China? This happens in the USA too but I attributed it to inexact data collection

Probably bc the Saturday bumps this week are very small due to Easter weekend

Endgame Data from all Cinemark Theatres with Reserved Seating (all + numbers are from the last update on April 😎 Theaters: 205 (apparently I didn't count correctly last time) Showings: 21681 (+6996) or +47.80% Tickets Sold: 1190079 (+357668) or +42.9% Tickets Available: 2512554 (+657419) or +35.4% Percentage Sold: 47.37% or +2.5% (interesting...all the added showings leaves quite a bit of room for a late presale surge/walkup boom) Daily Breakdowns: Thursday 4/25: Showings: 3384 (+368) or +11.9% Tickets Sold: 268980 (+33940) or +14.4% Tickets Available: 371985 (+32255) or +9.5% Percentage Sold: 72.3% or +3.2% Friday 4/26: Showings: 6194 (+2246) or +57% Tickets Sold: 347537 (+111878) or +47.5% Tickets Available: 729294 (+206591) or +39.5% Percentage Sold: 47.65% or +2.6% Saturday 4/27: Showings: 6243 (+2255) or +56.5% Tickets Sold: 356446 (+122733) or +52.5% Tickets Available: 737221 (+209497) or +39.6% Percentage Sold: 48.34% or +4.6% Sunday 4/28: Showings: 5860 (+2127) or +56.9% Tickets Sold: 237137 (+94354) or +66.1% (!) Tickets Available: 695687 (+200374) or +40.4% Percentage Sold: 34.1% or +5.3% Now my takeaway from this is that Thursday is pretty much bled dry at this point. I'm not sure it'll beat TFA, but should be above $50 million at least given that the percentage is in line with what people have posted in this thread. However, the FSS sales are monstrous, and I'm confident it'll easily smash IW's records for all 3. Hopefully it'll be enough to get that $300 million.

I was going off of Charlie's chart

I meant underperforming relative to expectations for growth. Obviously it's not underperforming in absolute numbers.

For the experts on here, are overall presales for the 5-day also slower increasing than expectations or is it just OD that is underperforming?

That makes sense, but didn't other movies see an increase in WTS after presales started?

My best guess is that the crazy growth before tapped out the audience for CBMs, so there's just not much room left to grow. May explain the slow presales as well.

I don't understand why it slowed down so much after presales started. You'd think as the movie gets closer to release it would increase more

Panic aside, I'm surprised the growth rate didn't increase today. Hopefully it starts to see a bump tomorrow

If the presales for one day are well below projections, then the projections will be lowered. It could make up for it, but that's not guaranteed, and it could just as easily increase less than predicted.

No, 250 is for final presales. He predicted an increase of 14 million today (138-152), and it will only end up being about 9 million.

250 is for presales, 460 is for actuals

Wednesday. And I think Charlie had accounted for that in his projections chart, but today will still come in well below what he predicted which is not great.