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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    On track to hit that 35k target. I think it'll remain at ~1.5x IW until Sunday. After that I have no idea, but hopefully it gets a healthy release week bump.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    How accurate is it compared to Maoyan?
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    Hmm ok, in that case it would need to pick up the pace to be on course for a TFA-beating number (if your theater is representative)
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    The +101 is from when?
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Dug around this thread around release week of Captain Marvel and found that 84,000 tickets sold on Pulse corresponded with about 3.9m in @Deep Wang numbers. So if Endgame was at 29.4 million on Friday then it should be ~33m today, should beat TFA and TLJ 36m by Friday, and assuming the Pulse multi drops to "only" equal to IW, should be about 48m by release
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/0/uk-box-office-report-april-12-14-hellboy-freezes-dumbo-soars/ 1.19 million tickets sold so far for Endgame as of Monday. Wonder how far it will increase in the next two weeks. TFA iirc was around 1.8 million? (not sure of the number) in release week Tuesday.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    Have been pretty busy this week and forgot to do it for last weekend. I'll definitely have #s by Saturday night.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    What's up with Sunday sales? It was selling at a pretty decent pace compared to other days then suddenly froze.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    In the opening day presales tables that people post in this thread (like the one where Captain Marvel was ~70m), does that number include midnights?
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    And already the Maoyan WTS seems to have had a massive acceleration
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    My theater had about 26 showtimes for Friday and Saturday and 23 for Sunday before, now it's 39, 40, 36 each.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    I think Shazam will pass it on Friday/Saturday
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    Wouldn't be so sure, the 24-hour rolling tracker is at 26,000 and has been increasing for the past few hours.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    The revelation that Pulse is merely a subset does clear up one source of confusion I had, which was why movies with 2 weeks left would see drops on Discount Tuesday/weekends just because other films sold more. But if it's a subset that takes the same raw amount of tickets and other films just took more of those spots, suddenly that makes a lot more sense. But, since we normally use Pulse for comps and not raw data, it shouldn't really make a difference.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah, I would agree, but the other way I estimated by using the Thursday ratios seems to give a similarly high result. So I think it's almost definitely over $100 million (unless something about my sample was really unrepresentative). And @VanillaSkies I was purposely being extremely conservative with the estimates in order to give a low bound, it's easy for me to get overhyped so I've been trying to put my projections low.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    Using this method I would tend to be a little more conservative on the theater count (some theatres haven't started presales for Endgame yet), average ticket price (decent amount of sales even already are in matinees), and sellouts (at least in my theater, the sold out auditoriums are always the smallest), but even doing say 4000 theaters, 865k tickets sold, and $8/ticket would give $127 million, still an insane number.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    Breakdown of Cinemark data for Endgame (218 theaters) All numbers are without sellouts (I overlooked putting a sellout counter into each day's tracker, will add this along with a ticket price estimator to next week's run) Thursday, April 25: Showings: 3016 Tickets Sold: 234940/339730 (69.15%) Friday, April 26: Showings: 3948 Tickets Sold: 235659/522653 (45.09%) Saturday, April 27: Showings: 3988 Tickets Sold: 233713/527724 (44.71%) Sunday, April 28: Showings: 3733 Tickets Sold: 142783/495313 (28.83%) Now what I find interesting about this is how the tickets sold is almost exactly the same from Thursday through Saturday. If we take @Porthos Sacramento data as showing that Endgame has currently almost the exact same sales as IW final on Thursday, then using IW's preview night of 39 million we would get currently $117 million sold from just Thursday through Saturday (!!!). And then using the ratio of Sunday we would get a total of $140 million already sold for the OW (!!!!!). And keep in mind this number is without sellouts, of which there were quite a few. However, there are some caveats with this extrapolation, as we don't know what percentage of that preview # for IW was walkups (can't imagine it was very large, though), and it's possible Thursday showings would have a significantly higher proportion on higher-priced premium screens which would again skew the data (I will add a ticket price estimator which will give lower and upper bounds before I run this next week to test this hypothesis). However, looking at this it seems quite possible that Endgame has already broken TFA's $100 million presale record, which would be unbelievable for a movie 2.5 weeks out.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    My data is horribly formatted hence why I don't have the energy to go through it today, but quickly looking through at least for the first 105 theaters (before I had to split my data into multiple files) it appears to show a broadly similar picture to what people have posted here with ~70% sold
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    I feel like its less than that simply because if Endgame had already smashed the Force Awakens final total by that much then it would've been reported I think
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    Thing is at least at my local theater the sellouts are generally the smaller auditoriums, which is why my estimates (which I have in the detailed breakdown) are a little bit smaller than that. But either way the number is amazing for a movie almost 3 weeks out.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    Alright, I have data of sales for each day from 4/25 to 4/28 along with sales for each format (3D and XD for Cinemark). Will try to post the numbers tomorrow
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    I made a program that found Endgame sales for all Cinemark theatres with reserved seating info: Overall sales for April 25-28 (data collected Saturday through today, as I had to work through a few kinks in my data collection) Theatres: 218 Showings: 14685 Tickets sold (non sellouts, as I couldn't really track the auditorium size of sellouts): 832411/1855135 or 44.87% Sold-out showings: 362 I have more detailed breakdowns if anyone wants
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    I wonder if it will ever drop below 10k in the entire run tbh, I would think it should increase from here on out
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    Oh wow that's a pretty neat way to do it. Although the final week #s seem to differ a little from the other doc, but it should be close enough for comparison
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    How did you get the data for IW before the release week though? I couldn't find it earlier when I looked through those docs
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