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Alexdube

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    Weekdays Thread (1/9-12)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Alexdube

    1 hour ago, Legion in Boots said:

    AWOW has the good fortune to be the only December movie outside of SW/MCU to open “above 100M” in dec, which drives this particular silly stat. But the “above 100M” line is completely meaningless as a cutoff since it’s heavily affected by inflation. There are lots of movies that would have opened over 100M on this date and legged over 5, but avatar happens to be the first because of inflation+not getting a lot of December’s per year+recent tendency to put the fan monsters here rather than more midrange blockbusters.

     

    Okay so what are those movies? Give us a list of movies you think are superior to A2 in the sense of relatively strong opening to great legs

    • Thanks 1

    Weekdays Thread (1/9-12)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

     

    my country will get its first imax screen in the first half of 2023

    avatar 2 was the reason they wanted to open one but it took them too long

    would welcome a special edition a few months from now

    this is why we won't get to 3b

    Weekdays Thread (1/9-12)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Alexdube

    1 hour ago, Torontofan said:

    Will say 650 million seems the target not 700 million.

    650 is more like the rockbottom floor. If it did that exact same kind of money TFA did starting from the same point today, it would bring it to around 642.

     

    But Avatar will certainly make more than that because:

    1- it's already having better dailies than TFA (on weekdays too, and should perform relatively better on weekends) 

    2- from both the trajectory these movies are having and the history of both franchises, Avatar will continue to have stronger legs

    • Like 1

    Weekdays Thread (1/9-12)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

    3.5 for A2?

     

    neytiri-cry-avatar.gif

     

    As long as wee keep getting strong weekends it will be all good.

     

    3.5 would actually be a good drop

    it's right in line with Rogue One or NWH, and we can't really expect a better Sunday to Monday drop than those movies (because of how strong Avatar is on the weekend and because of the longer running time). I never expected 4+ for Monday, that would have been incredible. I expect a decent Tuesday bump however, if it plays a bit like the first week.

     

    This run is going to be really contrasted between the weak days (Monday Wednesday Thursday) and the strong days.

    M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    MCU in this era and SW are all very frontloaded movies. So their holiday fueled run will also reflect that. If A3 opens way bigger then it will be more frontloaded as well. but I feel with this franchise I dont think the GA will be in a hurry to see it. They will just wait to watch it at their leisure. So I would not predict way bigger OW for A3, though I would hope 150m would happen. I also have a slight hope that JC would make slightly smaller movie next time around. No need for another 3 hour movie. but that's not looking likely at this point 🙂  

    Yeah I agree with all of that. The thing is a lot of people thought A2 was going to behave like just another frontloaded sequel, and that clearly did not happen. So I don't know how you can call the legs "normal" on this movie when it has surprised most people on this forum.

     

    As for the running time, well it's hard to say JC made the wrong call considering the success the movie is having. So I don't know if we'll see the same thing for A3, but Cameron likes to take his time for sure. I think the only thing dragging down A2, and why maybe it felt long to some people, is that the movie had to introduce a lot of new characters. Now that all the pieces are in place, I think A3 is going to be even better.

    • Like 2

    M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

    You're being dumb. It happened to fall in a nominal OW range where the sample size is extremely low, being exceptional in a statistical trivial sense doesn't mean being exceptional in a plain English sense.

    you said 5x is normal for Christmas blockbusters. I guess Marvel and Star Wars movies aren't normal xmas blockbusters? What are you thinking about then

    M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

     

    I mean all of that is fair because its your opinion. I disagree with pretty much everything you say here as well (apart that the Mission Impossible films are amazing, because they are).

     

    Top Gun ofc profits from people having nostalgia for it and because the story is quite simple and basically just serves as setting the necessary groundwork for the action scenes. But those action scenes are some of the best practical action cinema of the century thus far and even with that kind of action, the movie wouldnt have had the succes it had without the emotional connection audiences hat with the characters.

     

    Because yeah, Top Gun Maverick has great character writing, the only thing about the story/characters that i would criticise is Jennifer Connellys character because that whole love interest-storyline felt a bit like checking boxes. But the dynamic between Maverick and Gooses' son, the heart and center of the film, just works. It helps that the third act of Maverick is the best blockbuster third act in years.

    Ah... so you haven't watch A2 yet!

    I wouldn't mind TGM getting BP though, I think the movie industry is overdue to award a big popular movie. Idc if it's not Avatar

    M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, M37 said:

    Funny you should ask ...

     

     

    Now I fully expect these two titles to diverge on Saturday, as Passengers looks to have been hit especially hard by NFL Playoffs (and possibly Hidden Figures), and Avatwo won't be.  But worth noting that the only titles to get better than +50% on this Sat in 2017 were Sing (+75), Moana (+70) and Rogue One (+57). Again, I think the NFL playoff factor - or more accurately, lack of them - will push those Saturday jump higher overall (followed by bigger Sunday drops), but in the COVID* last year the non-animated films were in the +55-65 range, except for NWH at +79.  (would also presume this is a big travel day for people returning to normal routine, which may cut into potential)

     

     

     

    I don't care what's happening in the weekend, Avatar will outperform Passengers every single time in the weekend relative to the weekdays because of its longer running time and because it targets the family demographic

    Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, baumer said:

    I know this is a different type of movie different release date and so on but having said that I remember back in the summer of 2008 when Crystal skull was out and later in its run it started having pretty insane Saturday jumps which signified that it was playing as a family film. I think Avatar kind of behaved the same way and I don't see why the sequel won't as well. Maybe it's not going to jump 100% on Friday but I don't see why it won't jump something like 90%. It's a huge commitment to see the film during the week when you have to work the next day. You're basically committing about 4 hours of your night to go see it. So I don't think it's unrealistic to think they can jump 90-100% on Friday 45-50% on Saturday and then have a normal Sunday decline.

     

    A 46 million weekend would be right around 30% drop, probably a little bit higher. So I don't think that's overly unrealistic.

     

    Yes, completely agree.

     

    Sub 40 is just not happening

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