Alexdube
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Posts posted by Alexdube
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Guys please stop downplaying Avatar's run with this admission talk...
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5 minutes ago, omark said:
typical frontloaded sequel
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3 minutes ago, Elessar said:
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Jimbo did it again in SK, gravity defying numbers
1st Sunday $7,505,041
2nd Sunday $7,548,469In France the 2nd weekend drop is 1%
Some of you are drawing conclusions wait too quickly. Maybe because you've been tracking too many superhero movies where everything is decided in the first few days? We still have no idea what the legs will be like domestically because of the storm completely screwing with things.
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53 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:
But that suggest Avatar might be.... frontloaded. They don't take kindly to that talk around these parts
As I pointed out in the OS thread
Certainly frontloaded in SK!!
South Korea Saturday (17 Dec): $7,908,297
South Korea Saturday (24 Dec): $7,907,026-
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2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
3% down in admits, near identical in local currency, sounds about right
I mean that's almost no drop. Pretty amazing no? I thought everything was frontloaded these days, especially sequels
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South Korea Saturday (17 Dec): $7,908,297
South Korea Saturday (24 Dec): $7,907,026Is this right?
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33 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:
Not exceptional for the time period, but when compared to other sequels, sure.
that's what I meant yeah
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3 hours ago, vale9001 said:
We should just stop acting as we're still in 1998 or 2009 and Titanic and Avatar weren't two original or not sequel movies.
Avatar 2 is higly frontloaded as every sequel. Cameron made these long legs thing two times not 45 times and with two original movies.
200-220M first weekend. 600-650 final a chance.
135M first weekend 500-550 final.
And in the actual scenario this means still great legs because of A cinemascore, Christmas bla bla bla. Or with 135M opening nowdays you came for 350-400 total.
At least 4 times and with 2 sequels
T2 and Aliens both had exceptional legs relative to other sequels and for the time period
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7 minutes ago, XXR It's 2 Damn Cold Out said:
R1 did $89M in those 4 days so what would “convincingly better”, mean? $110M?meaning around 5M more per day. That would be pretty strong
I guess I would be very happy with anything between 100M and 110M
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33 minutes ago, Porthos said:
I have in fact seen you say this a couple of times, so I'd like to ask you then... Just what are your targets/benchmarks coming up? Don't need exact numbers, obv, but more ranges (though the tighter the better).
Just when exactly do you expect legs to kick in? And at what level?
What is the target, more or less, by the end of the third weekend, for instance?
(asking coz I am genuinely curious and want to factor it into to what I'm looking for when it comes to Cameron-tastic legs)
For me it's pretty simple. I'm expecting to see Avatar get convincingly better weekdays than RO between Christmas and the new year. If it's worst or equal, we're probably looking at a more "ordinary" run, but like Cameron said himself, we'll definitely know where this is going by the end of the 3rd week.
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Yeah I'm looking out my window and it's a fucking blizzard outside. Even in Canada that's "don't go outside" weather. And in some places authorities are actually telling people to stay inside. I think if you see 20M as just ok or bad, you might be in for a surprise in the coming weekdays once things go back to normal.
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Yeah it's pretty shit in Canada right now not gonna lie. Rain, hail, snow and strong winds... in some places authorities are telling people to stay inside... not good!
Really hard to say how exactly it's impacting BO overall, but it's hurting it for sure.
I'm thinking under normal circumstances Avatar would have a stronger Friday than R1. As is, above 20m would be amazing.
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1 hour ago, Porthos said:
Um, what???
Xmas Eve is a bad day, yes. But Xmas itself? As well as Boxing Day? They're not "bad days" in the slightest; just the opposite.
True! I stand corrected
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46 minutes ago, hw64 said:
It's doubly unfortunate because it's happening on Christmas weekend where a lot of people who otherwise don't really go to the movies do so out of tradition, so if you lose a lot of that business due to external factors then a significant portion of it is probably just lost completely and won't be made back later.
Is that really a thing? If there is bad weather I prefer it be on a weekend where a lot of people won't go anyway because of Christmas.
The proportion of people who go to the movies on Christmas as a tradition is relatively small (as demonstrated by traditionally smaller box office numbers), but you also have to take into account that some of these people are more frequent moviegoers. What's the % of people who only go to the movies on Christmas and will not ever report at a later date? I feel like that must be a pretty marginal group
Obviously the storm is bad for business no matter what, but I feel like less damage is done on Christmas weekend which is already suboptimal
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18 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:
One thing to note is in ROGUE ONE'S year most of the movies increased, whereas (so far reported) AVATAR is the only movie to increase.
Yeah that's what I'm getting at. Avatar performed better than Rogue One relative to other movies playing at the same time and considering the shit weather of this year.
Avatar is obviously a tougher sell on week days because of the longer running time + It's a stronger family movie which should play much better on the weekends and the coming days between Christmas and January 1st.
+the fact it's a PLF heavy movie and you still have to fight for the best seats
+the fact Avatar is already matching Rogue One without the typical heavy Star Wars fanbase frontload
Personally I think Avatar will smoke Rogue One in the coming days after the weather stops being frontpage news.
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Wednesday to Thursday 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them +14%
La La land +13.4%
Moana +21.1%Rogue One +12.1%
Wednesday to Thursday 2022
black panther wf: -1.8%
violent night: -3.8%
the whale: -60%
Puss in Boots: -9.3%Avatar 2: +1.3%
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26 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
WOAH WOAH WOAH!!! Careful. That is wrong-think on this website. You CANNOT imply American critics have a superhero bias, that is not allowed and is in complete conspiracy theory terrority. Disengage before you are apprehended.
lol I know I'm erring on dangerous territory 😆
but at least I'm backing up my claims with a clear example
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24 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
Avatar 2 now officially has worse critical reception than BPWF
Eh who cares... American critics have a soft spot for Superhero movies, it's different at the international level. For example French critic aggregator has BPWF at 2.9 out of 5. Avatar 2 is 4.2 out of 5 (also TGM at 3.7)
Critics have all kinds of biases, they are not the ultimate authority on the quality of a movie.
I'd say the critics have been good enough for Avatar not to hurt it too much (except in the UK maybe)
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27 minutes ago, Borobudur said:
Pretty awful leg. The great mid-week hold elsewhere doesn't correlate here very well.
I wouldn't normally use the weather as an excuse, but it really is a thing right now. Just look at news reports on it.
If it can keep numbers similar to Rogue One under those circumstances, I'm more than happy.
Next week is going to tell the real story.
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I don't normally pay much attention to the weather relative to box office performance, but the upcoming winter storm is described as a "once in a generation" type event. In Canada it's just another Wednesday, but in the US it seems like it's going to be ugly for the next few days.
It'll be amazing if numbers can keep up with Rogue One in the next few days but no panic if they don't.
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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Because I can point to the type of films that were released in the time period? And those that weren't?
Proof is in the pudding, as the saying goes.
Do you really expect me to believe that the release of LOTR wasn't influenced by the highest grossing movie of all time 4 years prior? Get real please...
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20 minutes ago, Porthos said:
The thing is, it's not what you or I think, but what the studios thought at the time.
Even now, studios still reflexively shy away from some months for no good reason (at least IMO). Take Labor Day Weekend. Even after films have proved that September and October can have blockbusters succeed just as much as other months, they're shying away from Labor Day Weekend. January is still viewed as a "dump month.
It wasn't that long ago that February was lumped in with January as a "dump month". Now the idea of Feb being a "dump month" is rightly seen as ridiculous.
Studios would tie themselves into logical knots searching for a "perfect" time for a type of movie without realizing that getting more of a maybe slightly lesser pie was better than everyone going after the same time period in, say, the summer.
As for the holidays? The thinking was: Drop blockbuster movies in November so they could rake in money during Thanksgiving and then leg it out with all of the other movies in the Xmas period. Even Avatar was pointed to as an example of (nearly-impossible-to-repeat) legs as opposed to more upfront blockbuster style frontloadedness.
Now I will agree that if studios had been less reactionary/hidebound, they could have seen the signs for a potential breakout in December. But it wasn't films like Avatar that pointed the way, but the LOTR films. Even The Hobbit films proved to be something of a "Proof of Concept".
But it still was a gamble to put a 175m+ type opener (never mind 200m+ type opener) in December, as no one had attempted it before. The closest we can point to would be RotK and its 124m 5day OW back in 2003. But that had a long list of its own reasons why it might have been viewed as unique.
So, I will agree with you that studios shouldn't have viewed it that way... I'm just telling you they did and that once TFA showed what was possible... Well it did change studio thinking about what was possible in December for blockbusters.
Which, if one recalls, is my comment that started all of this.
I said I would stop there, but since you wrote all that...
How do you know what studios thought at that time, were you involved in the decision process? Listen I respect your opinion, but I think it's kind of outlandish, a big reach and pure historical revisionism to insinuate Titanic and Avatar had almost no influence on the release dates of movies that followed
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7 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:
Avatar was sort of like a tech demo if you are into gaming. One could - and lot of us did back then - argue that the single reason why Alice in Wonderland made it to $1B was because of 3D. James Cameron is one of the best directors of all time, but the reasons why Titanic was one of the biggest films of all time and Avatar followed can’t be seen and understood in a vacuum.
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Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days
in Numbers and Data
Posted
A2 is a 3+ hours long PLF skewing movie. I believe that gives the movie a soft cap on how much money it can make daily (see Monday). It also doesn't have the heavy fanbase Star Wars has, so how is A2 doing similar daily numbers to RO already? What edge does it have? Every demographic wants to see it (a true GA movie) + the PLF screens
In other words, demand is burning off slower for A2
I also believe the storm is still having a lingering effect in some parts of Canada/US making it more difficult to have a clear picture on legs, but things are starting to clear up
With that said, putting my chips down and making this prediction: whether or not Rogue One is above A2 on Monday, it will never be above it again