Alexdube
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Posts posted by Alexdube
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12 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:
This isn't what I said though. I said people who think 10% over R1 isn't a good number have unrealistic expectations.
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12 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:
They already explained it. Its early and its hard to predict numbers early when they don't have a lot of experience doing it yet. Its much easier to wait until 3 am and then post a number but that would not be great for us. would likely be more accurate but hardly help us at all when we want some sort of early "indication' where its going.
But if we are going to nail someone for putting an early number that proves to be out well we know where that heads. No numbers and no discussion at all.
I don't disagree with any of this.
What I didn't like was the comment that going 10% over R1 is somehow "unrealistic". People are already floating 20 as a possibility
That is all. No hard feelings, I'm over it, let's move on.
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18 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:
Let it go. They are new to extrapolating the numbers. They made a post about it and it was very early in the day when they made a suggestion. Stop being a pain in the ass about it or you will lose that source of information and discussion.
I don't like the double standard that going lower means you're being "realistic" while going over means you're being a "fanboy" or whatever. I'll happily let it go but calling me "pain in the ass" is uncalled for, I wasn't trolling I was just genuinely asking what he meant by that number
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3 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:
I didn't have Tuesday @ 19.
"how would you feel about 19 for Tuesday"
Isn't that what you said? What was that about
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9 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:
If you have unrealistic expectations, maybe. Potentially going +10% over R1 is a good number IMO.
10% over R1 doesn't really seem so "unrealistic" when you had Tuesday at 19
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I think today could be "surprising". I don't think discount Tuesday helped Avatar that much this week, in fact it might have hurt in some places because many showings would be packed anyway without the discount. It's a holiday week, it's not going to behave like last week. And this movie plays like a family movie
I don't think 21+ is out of the question
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11 minutes ago, theghostofmarv said:
I'm not basing it on my friend group at all. RT Verified Audience, Letterboxd, IMDb. Cinemascore, etc. are all higher for TGM. I wish they weren't, but they are. If it turns out that TWOW has 300m+ domestic left in the tank after January 3rd I will *personally* buy you a beer, and I will be very happy to do so.
One thing you need to consider is demographics. Even if TGM has better WOM, the range of people its targeting is certainly more narrow than A2. So A2 has more room to grow, it's just a question of how much the movie will tap into that potential
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9 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:
Because the run is nothing to scream and cheer over
says a lot about the state of Marvel
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I've been thinking: is Cameron now the first over 60 billie maker?
Almost, Chris Buck did it with Frozen 2 (although he's co-director with the younger Jennifer Lee)
Raimi came close this year with DS2.
Am I missing anyone? Glanced at the over 1 billion movie list and I believe Cameron is the oldest director to do it.
He'll probably become the first over 70 to do it with A3
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3 minutes ago, Shanks said:
I saw Avatar 2 again today in IMAX 3D, before was 4DX.. and now, I dislike movie more now. On other note, IMAX 3D is way better than 4DX...
3rd time is the charm 😉
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33 minutes ago, M37 said:
CC: @IronJimbo, @Alexdube, @Legion in Boots, @Deep Wang
Alright, lets get into January legs talk for real. I'm a visual person, so I mapped out the trajectory of the first 10 weeks of the recent December tentpoles and previous James Cameron films to show how they held and reached those legs over the long haul. Showing the retention by week (which is skewed a bit in the first 3 weeks depending on when holidays fall)
Note: shown in log scale since we're dealing with drop rate (exponential decay)
- TLJ (yellow arrows) - clearly a victim of WOM, it kept dropping far faster and by late January was on its way out (also only film besides Titanic to have Xmas in opening week)
- NWH (red arrows) - can see it was shallowing the comparable SW films for the holiday weeks 2 and 3, due to some combination of Omicron hesitancy and MCU spoiler/fan rush, but then caught up by mid January, and posted significantly better holds into February (all with a lighter release calendar)
- TFA/RO (black arrow) - interesting to note that through week 6, TFA and RO were pacing very similarly. But on that week, RO faced the 1-2 punch of Split and XXX: Xander Cage, fell back, and never recovered, while TFA continued to hold very well into February despite some major competition (including Deadpool)
- Titanic/Avatar (blue arrow) - notice anything different about weeks 2 and 3 here? Both increased from week 1 to week 2, and even by week 3 were miles ahead of anything else on this list. That trend continued during their respective runs; by week 6, nothing else was pulling even 6% of the OWeek gross, while they were at 62% & 35% retention
We're more than halfway through week 2 for Avatwo, and its looking to finish around 85% of the Oweek, slightly better than TFA (78%) and RO (80%). I have it penciled in to continue that for the following week, above but still very much in line with the SW comps. An optimistic outlook is that it tracks above RO/TFA through January and then more like NWH through February, but that's still probably like a $560-$580M finish
Once again,there really is no data to suggest we're on the precipice of some magical run in the new year and a burst to $600M, and we're really running out of time for it to suddenly appear
Did you forget about the historic storm that hit on the second weekend? Also A2 had a proportionally stronger opening than the first one due to the fact it's now a known property, but does that mean its grosses will fall off a cliff like a superhero movie or SW? It could very well "stabilize" in January, we just don't know that yet.
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29 minutes ago, M37 said:
We're in a FAR different market than when either of those films had their runs, as there is much more content available and people's attention spans have gotten shorter. And I also included PLF pricing as another limiting factor. To repeat
Believe what you want, but I'm not pulling these thoughts of out "nothing but air". How much a film makes is not a reflection of its quality, nor should dampen your or anyone else's enjoyment of them. But if we're discussing the financial prospects of a particular entry in the current market, then running time, pricing, and "fun" are limiting factors, particularly with rewatches
Did I ever say that or imply that? That's true the amount of money a movie makes isn't proof of its quality, in fact nothing is because the quality of a movie is always subjective. But that doesn't mean the quality of a movie doesn't play into its success, those are 2 different things.
Was Avatar successful because it is actually a good movie or because of other factors? That's something that can be debated
The point is there are so many factors that play into what makes a movie rewatchable or successful. Obviously you have no interest in James Cameron's work, so have you no clue what makes his movies rewatchable. So your analysis is very narrow on rewatchability, limited to only a few things like running time and pricing
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27 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:
Or you could say it’s based on getting worse reception on metrics which reliably correlate to legs (cinemascore, verified, etc)?
Ah there it is... that's what I expected the reply to be initially.
Sure that is one data point you can look at, but obviously it doesn't always tell the whole story. The first Avatar had far far better legs than almost all movies that scored the same or better with these metrics.
Bottom line is we don't know yet. I just have a problem with throwing out there so nonchalantly that Avatar 2 will have less rewatchability than TGM or NWH. We just don't know yet and you cannot simply ignore Cameron's track record on that element
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15 minutes ago, M37 said:
Honestly … no; I’m genuinely indifferent to the movie itself. (Which also means I have no rooting interest other than analyzing numbers).
If you’re asking specifically about the rewatch comment, that’s not a quality judgement, but an observation that audiences are more willing to pay multiple times for a “fun” experience. Carving out 4 hours of free time at PLF pricing is a hurdle even for a “better” movie. Even BPWF suffered legs-wise IMO from a (necessary) more somber tone despite virtually no competition for its runTitanic was over 3 hours long and it's certainly one of the most rewatched movie in a theater. Same as the first Avatar with little less than 3 hours. Length is only one of many factors that would influence on the decision to rewatch a movie.
Your assertion that Avatar 2 would be less rewatchable than NWH or TGM is based on nothing but air
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4 minutes ago, M37 said:
I think with benefit of hindsight, it’s becoming more clear to me that last year’s holiday/early January period was depressed, presumably due to Omicron. We’re seeing a much more robust first few days here, relative to pre-holiday, even with Avatar. NWH’s January run may have been more delayed demand than result of weak slate (also NWH probably much higher on rewatchability than Avatwo)
If you think Avatwo’s Jan/Feb is going to mirror TGMs Aug/Sept … I have my doubts
Curious have you seen the first Avatar or the second one?
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26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Looks like 22.5
Spoiler"putting my chips down and making this prediction: whether or not Rogue One is above A2 on Monday, it will never be above it again"
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11 minutes ago, Gopher said:
I'm old enough to remember on the Mojo boards in '09 that 1. Nobody was impressed with Avatar's numbers until its Xmas weekend hold came in, and there was derision that it briefly lost the #1 spots to Chipmunks and Sherlock, and 2. Even by New Year's when it was clear Avatar was in for a magic run domestically, the majority of the boards didn't think it was going to approach Titanic unadjusted. It was the first 'normal' weekday number going over 8 million where the top post on the thread was a wide shot from Titanic of the ship sinking.
A lot of members were upset about the idea of something like Avatar having more cultural ubiquity or significance than The Dark Knight, and even after Avatar's domestic run ended there were still back-and-forth calcluations about how Avatar actually sold just below Dark Knight in admissions, and obviously would never
come close to Titanic's.
We're not gonna have any idea where this will end up until weekend after next. It's clear that there are holiday megatentpoles like Force Awakens and No Way Home that functioned like genuine pop culture phenomenons, holding on through March on 'you just have to see this' word of mouth that the other Marvel and Star Wars' just didn't get the same way. It's clear it's doing really well right now and a 'normal' trajectory following the holidays would put it in the approaching 2 billion camp. But its worth reflagging that unless I'm mistaken, there's absolutely nothing taking IMAX or Dolby until... uh... Titanic...
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5 hours ago, Deep Wang said:
Crazy to think a HATER and DOUBTER correctly guessed a 52% second weekend drop!
well you can thank the storm 😉
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30 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
PS - I will say, looking at my theater, don't expect a great Tuesday. It was pretty chill, and no one was walking up. You pretty much prebought tickets if you were going to the movies this afternoon, and nothing was a sellout or almost sellout.
If we're doing anecdotal stuff, one showing I'm looking at is so packed it's listed as -18 seats available
Anyway it's selling very well where I'm looking at, so I don't know
btw is there a non-convoluted way to post images here?
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21 minutes ago, Elessar said:
Hope you are right.
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16 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:
I'm just wondering when franchise fatigue will set in for Avatar.
Never as long as Cameron is a the helm
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12 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:
A4 and A5 will definitely happen at this point. A2 will get to a minimum of #7 worldwide. Right now I assume A3 will drop about 20-25% admits in all markets (excluding China) and the A4 about 5-10% from that with A5 flat from A4.
Any way you spin it, the five films are probably doing a minimum of $10B and perhaps upwards of $12-12.5B.
Highest-grossing directors worldwide[1]
Rank Name Worldwide box office Films Average Highest-grossing film 1 Steven Spielberg $10,649,269,084 36 $295,813,030 $1,045,573,035 (Jurassic Park) 2 James Cameron $7,006,699,748 14 $500,478,553 $2,899,384,102 (Avatar) 3 Russo brothers $6,843,246,470 9 $760,360,719 $2,797,732,053 (Avengers: Endgame) 4 Peter Jackson $6,536,703,723 15 $435,780,248 $1,120,210,896 (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King) 5 Michael Bay $6,495,374,196 16 $405,960,887 $1,123,794,079 (Transformers: Dark of the Moon) 6 David Yates $6,350,769,729 10 $635,076,973 $1,316,278,261 (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2) 7 Christopher Nolan $4,955,387,330 13 $381,183,641 $1,082,228,107 (The Dark Knight Rises) 8 J. J. Abrams $4,648,965,502 6 $774,827,584 $2,064,615,817 (Star Wars: The Force Awakens) 9 Tim Burton $4,413,226,120 19 $232,275,059 $1,025,491,110 (Alice in Wonderland) 10 Ridley Scott $4,366,290,985 31 $140,848,096 $653,609,107 (The Martian) -
3 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:
Real money betting is discouraged here (though if you’d be interested, feel free to DM). Username bet is pretty low stakes just for fun where the winner can choose a new username for the loser for some agreed period of time (usually a week or a month I think).
Though I guess your account probably can’t name change atm so it wouldn’t really make sense 😛
I figured that's what it was but yeah, can't change it now. I did try to change my username for myself, but I can't even buy an account, paypal won't accept my credit card for some weird reason.
Anyway, not going to do any kind of betting right now, people can just bring it back to my face if I'm wrong. Hope it lasts more than a day at least 😆
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1 minute ago, Legion in Boots said:
If you’re putting your chips down I’m happy to make a username bet on this
not familiar with the concept
Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!
in Numbers and Data
Posted