Alexdube
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Posts posted by Alexdube
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just some showings in Canada
9h20pm
187/19610:20pm
240/410-
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13 hours ago, Elessar said:
told you RO wasn't going to be a day over Avatar after Monday 😉. And I made that call before Monday, I knew it was going to be close on that day, the only one I wasn't sure.
The last day where I see A2 will be the most vulnerable is on Wednesday, but pretty sure RO has lost too much steam at this point
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going with a very strong 49
same hold as A1, but relatively "worst" factoring NYE
Spoilerbelow 40 ain't happening with the way things are going
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22 minutes ago, Bruce said:
A2 is good,but Is not JC level movie
Image if JC made another Titanic or Terminator 2,$3.5B is not even a problem for him
I just try to believe him again,let’s waiting for Avatar 3
I agree A2 could have been better (I still love it), but I don't think Disney had much to do with the final product. It's more about the writing, it's the first big movie Cameron didn't write mostly all by himself. Not to throw stones at the writers, but nobody can write a James Cameron movie like James Cameron.
They still did a good job though I think, and I'm really looking forward to the next one. Problem is they had so many characters to juggle, and even at 3hours+ of running time, not enough time to develop them at their full potential. Not to mention, A2 and A3 were initially one movie. So a lot of what was in A2 will pay off in A3.
I think the next one has every reason to be even better
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9 minutes ago, M37 said:
Family movies (and older skewing ones fwiw) do really well during the day up to and including the 6p-8p times, and then fall off quickly after that. That’s the pattern we’re seeing for Avatwo, even though it isn’t skewing particularly toward kids (like PiB) or older (like TGM). But the net effect is a similar daily pattern
Well you would have to show me data on that...
But regardless, all I'm saying is don't underestimate the damage NYE did to A2, and consequently the bigger bump it might be getting on Sunday. Even if it's playing exactly the same as a family movie, the longer running time is still going to hurt it more on NYE
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17 minutes ago, M37 said:
That wasn't at all what I said: Puss in Boots was 40% under 17 - Avatwo was not anything close to that, so it would be incorrect to refer to it as a "typical family movie", as it would be for an MCU film that also pulls in families
I know that's not what you said, I'm telling you that's what it is. Avatar is playing well for families. Just because of the kind of movie that it is, the marketing around it etc. At least that's what I assume, considering how well it's doing, that must be one of the demographic it's hitting well with. And it's not a competition with PiB over which one skews younger... OF COURSE PiB skews younger... I also never said it played like a typical family movie, that was not my point
QuoteIts really, really NOT, at least not in comparison to other PG-13 high grossing films. And that's OK; TGM was also not a strong late show movie
No but it's probably playing better in later showings (to be clear I mean any evening showings and later) than the typical family movie. That's my point: it's something in between.
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58 minutes ago, M37 said:
While I won't say Avatwo is a "family movie" in the traditional sense of the term, but having a more casual/less fan rush audience and a loooong running time that skews sales to earlier showings, it may start to behave more like a family movie than the SW/MCU comps that kinda fit over the first ~12 days. Interestingly, it has tracked MUCH closer to Sing's 2016 post-xmas daily pattern than the rocket-like break from RO
Which is to say we may see a smaller NYD bump here, more in the 10-15% range (evening sales after 4/5p look kinda soft in some spot checking, even for PLF). One other nugget: though they get there via slightly different patterns, both +25% of RO and +40% of Sing - the gap over the last 3-4 days - would project out to another $57-$58M by Thursday [~$100M week / $458M total]
Avatar is 100% playing well for families, that's not even up to debate. And PiB is playing well for families with kids too young to see Avatar (that's from BO pro). But it's not just a family movie either, it's a four quadrant movie. So it's going to play a bit like a "family movie", but not entirely. And it's definitely not playing like mcu/sw, way ahead of you there.
Bottom line: it plays well in early showings but also later showing. And because of the long running time, NYE is definitely going to hurt it a lot. I correctly guessed 24+ for Friday but I didn't even try to guess for NYE, I just knew it was probably going to drop a lot. But I still expect a very good bump today.
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5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:
That's literally the exact opposite of what that thread shows.
Of the 30 predictions, removing the $1/$2/$100m guesses, the average is $55,088,533 and there are only 4 predictions above $60m.
that's what Jimbo is saying? The expectations were much lower than what we're actually getting?
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think 22M is too low
- that would mean identical increase to R1 which was in a solid downward trend
- I also think there might be some business recuperated here from the storm last week
- I also think Avatar is much stronger on a Friday than a Thursday because of the running time (not a regular Thursday of course but relatively speaking)
GIMME 24+
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15 minutes ago, BuzhuWarrior said:
I'm not a major Cameron Stan (although I certainly respect him). I'm a Star Wars geek and have been for about forty years now.
That said, it genuinely feels to me (anecdotally) that the response to A2 amongst people I know is roughly the same as it was to the first Avatar. Quite a lot of people seem to being an approximately similar response in terms of enjoyment (and potential rewatchability). A few like it a bit less, and a few like it a bit more.
The truly odd thing about it, is that I really can't remember a film where so many people I know were looking forward to it (if not necessarily highly excited about it) and definitely planning to see it, but really *weren't* in any particular hurry as to when. This may be partly due to it being Christmas, and partly due to the pandemic, but I also think it's because the first Avatar at this point occupies a fairly strange space in the public consciousness.
Despite being the sequel to the most successful movie of all time, this really doesn't feel like the typical sequel response at all. It feels as though the general public had become collectively fairly neutral to the franchise over the past 13 years or so. With all the positivity that comes from the first one being such a juggernaut on one side, off set by the years of criticism and apathy on the other, and the majority of the public sort of ambivalent and waiting to see what the response to the film would be.
All of which has contributed to this being one of the most difficult box office runs to predict prior to release, and even to extrapolate from as the numbers have come in.I think Avatar is closer to an old fashioned epic like Titanic than it is to something like Star Wars or superhero movies. Something Hollywood doesn't really do anymore, so it behaves in a way people aren't used to
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21 minutes ago, jedijake said:
Had BPWF been THE Christmas release this year, I wonder if its numbers would have been similar to Ava2 (with the same OW that it got in November).
Still predicting that Ava2 will end up around $550m domestic. I think BPWF would have done the same if it were in Ava2's spot.
In other words, with the same release date, BPWF would still have the bigger OW, but Ava2 would clearly have a bigger multiplier, both ending up with roughly the same domestic total.
550 is not happening. That's barely over R1, A2 is going to fly pass that, It's going to be over 600 easy
For 3 straight days now R1 is grossing less and dropping harder than A2. It's a pretty brutal trend. R1 was already showing signs of losing steam, and A2 is going to have January aallll to itself.
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7 minutes ago, upriser7 said:
wow...after all that doom and gloom yesterday about dropping to $16-17M, it ended up at $20M lol
considering the trend these last few days
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8 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:
1-2% increase, if any at all. No where near 10M or 20M. Most of what was missed Thurs/Friday/Saturday was picked up Sunday/Monday.you're so soooo wrong on that
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9 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:
I believe in the 18!
I don't believe in the 17
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21 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:
Pace is fluctuating a bit today but things are starting to coalesce. Let's go with $17M as the first projection. Will update again in a while.
That's like a bigger % drop than Tuesday to Wednesday. Why would it drop that hard from Wednesday to Thursday? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. What am I missing?
Gotta be at least 18
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17 minutes ago, Mulder said:
Not a PG-13 movie as violent and dark as that movie is which is also 3 hours long. Puss in Boots is the clear contender for the family and kids crowd (Which is already a dying audience for theaters).
There is a bit of violence yes, but nothing that most kids can't handle. PiB is a better fit for the younger kids yes, but are we seriously trying to argue that no parents are taking their kids to see Avatar? There is definitely some overlap
The movie is literally about family. Many of the parts are played by young kids. Of course it's aimed at families... let's be serious
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7 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:
I figured because Sheldon kept calling you "brother Alex", you were biased for Avatar. So in turn, being contrarian against any film that comes out in proximity to it.
Correct me if I'm wrong
I want Avatar to do well yes, I'm not hiding from that. But no, I'm not being a "contrarian" to every other movie.
And I believe you posted you didn't care for Avatar's run but was all about PiB? Nothing wrong with that you know, to each his own
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1 minute ago, Mulder said:
Way of Water is not a family movie.
Oh boy...
Well I guess that depends on what your definition of that is
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3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:
Like you are for Avatar?
no idea what this is supposed to mean
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8 minutes ago, M37 said:
PIB made just shy of $33M in first (storm deflated) week. I think floor is 3x ($100M), mid range is 3.5-4x (115-130), and top end result is Jumanji WTJ like 4.5x ($150M+)
Good WOM and no family competition for a long while make me lean towards higher end, $120-$160 range
I would probably nuance that a little
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15 minutes ago, setna said:
The real test for A2 final gross starts next tuesday, then is when we´ll start to see how stays James Cameron power in the mind of people
A2 is more of a weekend movie, the subsequent weekend will be a better indicator of its staying power
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5 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:
It's not misunderstood. I'm not going to drop stuff that journalist say who does reporting for a living. There is no exact number on the budget. Please give me the source where Cameron clarified it. Saying that it's breaking even the new few days is clearly delusional and incorrect.
Latest from Variety: "“Avatar 2” looks to stay strong into the new year, which is necessary to justify its massive price tag. Cameron estimated the $350 million-budgeted movie (not including at least $100 million in marketing fees) needs to generate roughly $2 billion to break even, though analysts believe the threshold to profitability is probably closer to $1.5 billion."
I agree, the real break-even point is probably closer to 1.5 billion then to 2 billion. It's tough to know how much marketing they spent. It will break even either way, will hit 2 billion.
I literally just gave it to you
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7 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:
Dude, it's not just mainstream media, it's everywhere in the industry. Nobody said the budget was 2 billion. Cameron never committed to a number, just said it was f*kin expensive. He has the 2 billion breaking even point, he didn't say it jokingly. I trust Variety and Forbes over a BOT user's fantasy, if you don't mind, so we keep it as a reference point going forward.
what about the man himself?
from:
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10 hours ago, Alexdube said:
I think today could be "surprising". I don't think discount Tuesday helped Avatar that much this week, in fact it might have hurt in some places because many showings would be packed anyway without the discount. It's a holiday week, it's not going to behave like last week. And this movie plays like a family movie
I don't think 21+ is out of the question
6 hours ago, Alexdube said:
Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Alexdube
nevermind