For all the complaints about Elemental looking like a "basic" Pixar film, I think that might help. It has an appealing straightforward premise that makes it easier to sell to audiences than Lightyear.
Consider this: Inside Out came out a week after Jurassic World made $207M OW. Yet, the former still made $90M OW because it had incredible word of mouth and it was catered towards a different audience.
The Flash will take the #1 spot that weekend but it's possible that Elemental can coexist with it.
Winning cures everything. Lightyear was a misfire and Strange World only made things look more dire for Disney Animation. If this can at least break even or make a profit, that resets the narrative.
It's possible... if the word of mouth is strong enough. That was what doomed Lightyear more than the competition itself. Reviews for that were tepid, word of mouth was so-so, and animated science fiction tends to be box office poison.