I feel like Wall-E or Brave numbers would be the best case scenario for this. Maybe Monsters Inc or Ratatouille numbers if word of mouth is REALLY strong.
In hindsight, some of the projections for Lightyear were beyond unfeasible. That movie has a lot of baggage that seems obvious now. It didn't help that it had very little connection it had to Toy Story was confusing in the marketing campaign as to what it actually was.
Not that it makes your point any less salient, though.
That depends on three factors:
1. Is the word of mouth following Cannes strong or mid?
2. Is the last minute push in the marketing going to move the needle?
3. Will there be a large enough demand for families?
See... the one thing I'm betting on (and could easily be wrong about) is the fact that Spider-Verse is family-friendly, not exactly a family film the way Mario Bros and Puss in Boots were. It'll do well, but not be the default for people who want something other than a blockbuster.
The reboot announcement didn't help, but I get the feeling that this would have tanked either way. After the failure of Black Adam and how rudderless the DCEU has been.
If anything, this is further proof that Gunn and Safran need to hit the reset button.