porginchina

Today in China being China, Hotel Transylvania: Transformania has cleared censorship and been officially confirmed to play in Chinese theaters despite already being on streaming (and thereby very easily accessible in super high quality on the Chinese internet); the movie has not yet been given a release date. Haven't seen any updates on Turning Red, which I'd expect to have a lot more potential upside in China.

I wouldn't hold too much hope for massive grosses in lower-tier cities as audiences in lower-tier cities are well known to strongly favor local Chinese productions that they can understand without subtitles. Let's see how the movie fares this coming weekend; the new releases don't seem too impressive (A Rainy Day in New York and 我心飞扬/Breaking Through, a domestically produced ice skating-themed sports drama with no discernible star power). A ¥50 million final remains possible.

And a fifth-place, sub-4 million second day… unfortunately, looks like the movie won't make too much of an impact at the Chinese box office, although it could hold nicely from here (despite its sky-high Douban score, the movie still has no Maoyan score). Changjin II and Too Cool to Kill remain firmly on top. In somewhat positive news, Changjin II appears to be holding slightly better now and its Maoyan predicted gross has snuck back over the ¥4 billion mark (Too Cool to Kill remains on pace for ¥2.5 billion). February's overall box office should cross ¥10 billion tomorrow (the only other ¥10 billion months in recent years all include all or most of the Spring Festival holiday… February 2021, February 2019, February 2018).

Death on the Nile starting off with a not-so-great 8.2 on Maoyan and is slipping down the rankings today as it falls behind Boonie Bears and Me and My Winter Olympics; looks like the wait for a successful 2022 Hollywood release in China continues. Among the scheduled movies, A Rainy Day in New York is a near-guaranteed non-factor between literal years of piracy and likely audience indifference, Uncharted has an unfavorable Monday release date, and I'll confess to a certain amount of skepticism for a nearly 3-hour grim & dark superhero flick that (based on trailers) is lacking the colorful spectacle that often plays well with Chinese audiences (plus, Batman hasn't historically been a big draw in China). Almost hard to believe that the success of Godzilla vs. Kong was only a year ago. The next two weekends remain more or less completely open for new releases.

Without trying to drag this thread into political madness, a quick note: Winnie the Pooh is not banned in China. The name of the character has, at times, been censored on the Chinese Internet, but what hasn't. Many Pooh movies/TV shows are easily available in the country through Chinese streamers, there's a full Pooh mini-land at Shanghai Disneyland, and I've seen so much Pooh-themed clothing in the country (the characters are cute, which tends to go over big in China). Falling back on the tired, outdated, misleading Xi/Pooh meme does nothing but make you come across as uninformed. Trading on the Xi/Pooh connection also comes dangerously close to a simplistic and massively misinformed mindset that slanders the Chinese people as mindless subjugated followers of the CCP. Anyway. This forum is intended to be a place for box office discussion, not simple-minded xenophobic political laziness. As such, I'll end by noting that China is a politically complex place, in ways that can often be frustrating and can often bleed into everyday life. There's no way to hold a discussion about the Chinese box office without touching on political topics. As an avid moviegoer, I've found the government's stance on importing movies exasperating, to say the least. Personally, I'd love for No Way Home to screen in China as I really want to have the chance to see it on the big screen (while I'm American, I live in China and have for the past few years), but I simply cannot see the merit in trotting out such tired, needlessly inflammatory political shorthand for a thread that is generally so much better than that.

Notes from today's Chinese box office— -The Battle at Lake Changjin II remains in first place (it's led the Chinese box office every day of its run except for Valentine's Day). The movie has now passed the ¥3.56 billion final total of Operation Red Sea to rank 8th all-time in the Chinese box office with ¥3.657 billion/$585 million. While the movie still has a chance at crossing ¥4 billion, Avengers: Endgame's ¥4.25 billion final is almost certainly out of reach. -Among the other Spring Festival releases, To Cool to Kill is at ¥2.3 billion ($369 million), Nice View ¥1.18 billion ($189 million), Boonie Bears ¥880 million ($141 million), and Zhang Yimou's Snipers just crossed ¥500 million ($80 million). -Death on the Nile on pace to open in third place today [edit: actually fourth place] with ~26-27 million RMB (slightly north of $4 million); Maoyan's forecasting a final tally around ¥100 million; as ever, Maoyan forecasts should be interpreted as rough approximations (for comparison's sake, Murder on the Orient Express managed a final tally of ¥230 million back in 2017). For today's other opener, despite the astonishing popularity of ice panda mascot Bing Dwen Dwen, animated anthology film Me and My Winter Olympics isn't posting any noteworthy numbers and is currently in fifth place. -The weekend as a whole should to drop noticeably from last; the top movie will be The Battle at Lake Changjin II, which should pull a Friday-Sunday tally of ~¥125 million/~$20 million (last weekend the movie made ¥279 million/$44.6ish million).

Because the Chinese film bureau operates in mysterious ways. The Chinese government doesn't believe in explaining release dates; they simply proclaim release dates and leave the speculating for mere mortals. I assume that putting Uncharted on a Monday is partially intended to reduce its potential gross as it'll hold IMAX/premium screens for a solid four weekdays before losing most of those to The Batman the second its first weekend rolls around.

There are a few possible reasons— Politically, it would be a way to demonstrate that China's still open to the very biggest of Hollywood movies (No Way Home is the biggest movie ever to be theatrically shut out from China, at least in the current era of China as a box office giant). A delayed release for No Way Home would massively hurt the movie's potential box office revenue, thereby punishing Marvel, but also signal a willingness on the government's behalf to start forgiving Marvel as Phase Four continues (and as Disney considers possible Marvel-themed projects like expansions in Shanghai Disneyland and Hong Kong Disneyland). Box office-wise, if there's a hole in the release schedule that needs filling, No Way Home would likely bring in more revenue than, say, a re-release of an older Hollywood movie (over the past year and a half or so, China has re-released titles like Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone, the Lord of the Rings trilogy, and Avatar to fill seats in theaters in otherwise down periods).

Plus, they can attach the next trailer to The Batman for increased visibility. Assume this'll be the final trailer for the movie? Hopefully they don't reveal too much footage; would love to have some nice surprises in the theater (assuming it releases in China, although now that The Batman has a China date, I suspect that Fantastic Beasts is a near-guarantee to receive permission to screen in the People's Republic as well).

No word yet; the mainland China poster identifies Tom Holland as the star of Spider-Man: Far From Home (Mark Wahlberg is identified as the star of Transformers 4). Personally, I'm expecting that if No Way Home does get a release date, the release date will be given almost immediately before its actual release (like, 2-3 days in advance) since that's how China has handled plenty of other movies that ran into political turbulence (such as 少年的你, Better Days in 2019) [although feel free to take my speculation with a grain of salt; I have no insider information].

Friday, March 18 Uncharted is Monday, March 14

And another release date announcement— The Batman, Friday March 18 in China.

Uncharted officially dated in China for March 14.

Uncharted has been officially dated for Monday, March 14, so not at all day-and-date. Does look like Beijing's giving Sony some time to market the movie, though. Also, moderately amused that Uncharted has been approved/scheduled and still no word whatsoever on No Way Home.

Glancing at the Chinese release schedule for the next few weeks— Friday Feb. 18, nothing of note Saturday Feb. 19, 我们的冬奥 (Me and My Winter Olympics, 90-minute animated anthology featuring segments from some of China's top domestic franchises themed to the Winter Olympics; wouldn't expect a huge breakout as it's all very aimed at families with young children) and Death on the Nile Friday Feb. 25, A Rainy Day in New York and nothing else of note Saturday March 4, functionally empty February so far is at ¥9.3ish billion (getting close to $1.5 billion USD), which is objectively a ton of money, but last February's ¥12.27 billion might be out of reach given that the Spring Festival releases don't have a ton of money left in them and the remaining releases announced for this month are… not impressive. Lurching into the realm of speculation, we could see a potentially big-ish movie announced for February 25 to try to boost grosses for the remainder of the month and make the year-on-year box office comparison less embarrassing. As ever, China is super unpredictable and release dates can be announced anywhere from more than a month in advance to less than 48 hours to go. Thanks to Spring Festival's variable position within the calendar, yearly comparisons really only become possible with combined January/February grosses. So far, 2022 is at ¥12.0 billion. Keeping in mind that February's not over yet, the combined January/February grosses for previous years— 2021: ¥14.6 billion; 2020 N/A due to COVID; 2019 ¥14.5 billion; 2018 ¥15.1 billion; 2017 ¥11.1 billion; 2016 ¥10.7 billion.

Looks like of yesterday's three Valentine's Day releases, only 十年一品温如言 (Ten Years of Loving You) made a real impact, opening in first place with ¥143 million/~$23 million, knocking The Battle at Lake Changjin II from the top of the box office for the first time since release. Changjin II did okay for itself, though, earning ¥107 million, quite possibly its final day above the ¥100 million mark.* Changjin II is also now firmly entrenched in China's all-time top ten domestic grossers in ninth place. It has enough energy to get past eighth-place 红海行动 (Operation Red Sea) but seventh-place Avengers: Endgame is totally out of reach. Ten Years of Loving You received a truly sad initial score of 7.3 on Maoyan, although as Maoyan scores are wont to do when free from political influence, that number is plummeting (presently at an utterly pitiful 6.9). Looks like everything's back to normal in the Chinese box office today as Changjin has returned to the top slot; Ten Years has slumped into fifth place. Thanks to Valentine's Day, the algorithm that predicts final box office tallies for all releases is currently going haywire, but should correct later tonight China time (Changjin II went from a projected tally under ¥3.8 billion to, as of current posting, ¥4.2 billion). * fun fact for the forum— on Chinese box office apps like Maoyan, owing to the fact that written Chinese likes to abbreviate big numbers in sets of 10,000 instead of 1,000, most figures are reported in terms of 万元 (¥10,000) and 亿元 (¥100,000,000).

No Time to Die, also featuring Wright in a supporting role, released in China in late October 2021 without a problem. I'm not too worried about The Batman at this point.

In this case, it's extremely significant and a near-guarantee that the movie will release in the near future. The Batman's approval is official, certified by the government, and posted on social media by the distributor (the exact language in the post is that the movie "确认引进中国内地，档期待定"— confirmed to be imported into China, waiting to decide a release date). No Way Home has yet to receive such official approval or confirmation. While it's possible for approval to be rescinded (happened to Nomadland last year when Chloe Zhao's youthful comments on China were unearthed by nationalistic netizens), it's extremely uncommon. At this point, it's confirmed, China's allowing big Hollywood blockbusters.

China has historically employed a zero-tolerance policy towards films that offend them (just look up their reactions to Kundun and Seven Years in Tibet back in the day); this is part of the reason why so many Hollywood movies are so sensitive to the suggestions of Chinese censors as the Chinese do not mess around when they get mad. Add in the fact that the Chinese government was always iffy about the decision to make a movie even partially inspired by the racist Shang-Chi comics of yore and behold! you have the current status quo with Marvel Studios. Agree that Marvel shouldn't apologize as it would look awful everywhere else and cause more overall harm than benefit (and at the time they decided to hire Simu Liu and Chloe Zhao, both entertainers were totally okay politically in Beijing). My guess is that Marvel will eventually be forgiven, as many entertainment transgressors are; they've got huge brand awareness in China and can contribute solidly to helping the Chinese box office overtake the US/Canada (plus, for what it's worth, Shanghai Disneyland is forever rumored to be getting Marvel-themed expansions).

While there are no guarantees with China, based on how things stand at the moment, it's very likely that The Batman will release before No Way Home as No Way Home has yet to publicly announce that it's received approval to screen in China (there are unofficial reports and murmurings that the movie's been approved, but nothing certifiable). Similarly, Uncharted should release before No Way Home (assuming that No Way Home gets a release). Quasi-related, but looks like Marvel's putting out mainland marketing materials for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (they released a version of the latest trailer with simplified Chinese subtitles and a simplified Chinese poster). Not at all a guarantee that Doctor Strange will meet better fortune with Beijing bureaucrats than Black Widow, Shang-Chi, Eternals, and No Way Home, but Marvel clearly hasn't given up on the Chinese market/audience.

The ban is Marvel-specific. Disney is still getting release dates, although they haven't always been the greatest (i.e., Encanto released Jan. 7, after it was on Disney+). Death on the Nile releases next week; Turning Red is a fairly safe bet to get a release as well. Walt Disney Studios movies in China have been running a custom-for-China Disney logo since June to showcase Shanghai Disneyland's ongoing fifth anniversary celebrations. I'd categorize Avatar 2 as likely to release, at least on a simple political level (the first one rereleased in China last year, Cameron's movies generally play in Chinese theaters), although all bets might be off if Avatar 2 threatens to topple the top-grossing domestic movies of the year (and based on The Battle at Lake Changjin II's performance so far… it's a distinct possibility).

Yes, it's official— 新蝙蝠侠 has been approved by the film bureau and secured a Chinese theatrical license. Still waiting on a release date, but it's past censorship. Should see more approval and scheduling announcements as soon as this week as Spring Festival winds down (Lantern Festival, the traditional end of the holiday, is tomorrow). Moonfall and (slight possibility) No Way Home could be next. Foreign movies with secured Chinese releases (no release date)— Uncharted, The Batman Foreign movies with confirmed release dates— Death on the Nile (Feb. 19), A Rainy Day in New York (Feb. 25)

Today's notable box office milestones for Spring Festival releases— —奇迹·笨小孩 (Nice View) has crossed the ¥1 billion mark as it progresses towards a likely final above ¥1.2 billion —这个杀手不太冷静 (Too Cool to Kill) is almost at the ¥2 billion mark and will cross that milestone this afternoon China time as it progresses towards a final around ¥2.4 billion [edited to note that Too Cool to Kill has officially crossed ¥2 billion] —长津湖之水门桥 (The Battle at Lake Changjin II) has now grossed just over ¥3.3 billion, placing it 11th all-time in the Chinese domestic box office rankings, just behind 糖人家探案2 (Detective Chinatown 2) at ¥3.397 billion and 美人鱼 (The Mermaid) at ¥3.391 billion. The movie should have enough energy to break into the top ten tomorrow. Current projections have it aiming at a final just below ¥3.8 billion; for a movie with a supposed 9.6 Maoyan score, it's proving awfully front-loaded.

Having seen a few links from the not-entirely-objective Global Times floating around this forum, figured I'd share a story on this year's Spring Festival box office from Sixth Tone, an English-language, China-based news website (they are state-affiliated but have a certain degree of editorial independence, to the extent that editorial independence is a thing in China, and have been internationally recognized for some of their reporting): https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1009613/chinas-holiday-box-office-sees-pricier-tickets Noteworthy quote: "audiences seem to be a bit aesthetically tired of patriotic films" (a Chinese analyst). [My cheerfully amateur take— based on current projections sending the movie towards 3.9 billion RMB, The Battle at Lake Changjin II will fall 32ish% from The Battle at Lake Changjin, which is an entirely reasonable downturn based on comparisons to how sequels to mega-hits have performed in the US/Canada in recent years, i.e., Avengers: Age of Ultron, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. However, the decline from the first Changjin (despite the advantages of higher ticket prices, a more humane running time, and a more traditionally cinema-friendly holiday release date) definitely indicates that there's a very real ceiling for patriotic Chinese movies. This is also borne out by my conversations with my Chinese friends, very few of whom have the slightest interest in seeing the big patriotic movies, none of whom can understand why I voluntarily watch patriotic Chinese movies as a foreigner (this includes chats with several people who have membership in the CCP)].

To be fair, Wu Jing basically plays Wu Jing in The Battle at Lake Changjin, and especially in the newly released sequel ( )