porginchina

March 25, confirmed.

Moonfall has been approved for release but is still waiting to be given a release date; when, exactly, it will receive a release date is entirely unpredictable. To be honest, don't have high expectations for its box office performance as it seems a prime candidate for toxic word-of-mouth.

FSS of ¥180.7 million RMB ($28.6 million USD) across all movies at the Chinese box office. Changin II on top with ¥47.3 million RMB ($7.5 million USD), also known as "a whole lot less than The Batman made in the States." Too Cool to Kill placed second, Nice View placed third. Turns out tracking the Chinese box office is really rather dull when there are no new movies in theaters. In terms of hope for new releases, two foreign movies secured release dates today. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore breaks the long streak of China-delayed Hollywood movies with an April 8 release (in line with the UK, Japan, and other territories and before the US/Canada) and Hotel Transylvania 4: Transformania at the very least providing content that can be shown on a Chinese screen on April 3. Still nothing of significance for the coming weekend.

For the first time in what feels like forever, a Hollywood blockbuster is entering China somewhat day-and-date with the rest of the world— Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, April 8. And in other "at least it's got a release date" news, Hotel Transylvania 4: Transformania bows on April 3.

Well, as expected, a lowly Saturday at the Chinese box office… 78 million RMB so far across all movies with ~40 minutes to go until midnight, Beijing time. Changjin II leads with ~19 million RMB Saturday (which converts to $3 million for the top-grossing movie in the world's largest box office market). For reference, 2022's so far seen two Saturdays below ¥100 million (the two weeks leading up to Spring Festival, which are expected to be sad & pathetic). Outside of pre-holiday Saturdays when new releases are scares, there's no reason for the box office to dip so low. The question now is, how low can the Chinese box office go? How low will Beijing let the box office go?

Every movie gets presales to some extent given the paramount importance of online ticket selling in China, but ticket sales may not start until very shortly before release (it varies, widely, depending on the movie). I'd expect ticket sales to start up within a week of the respective release dates, maybe a few days in advance. China moviegoing fun fact: there are generally two prices for each showtime— the price you can find at the theater, and then the price you can get through a ticketing platform like Maoyan. Prices at the theater are normally about twice as expensive as prices on mobile ticketing, which is why almost all movie tickets in China are sold in advance. I'm not expecting either movie to do fantastically. Uncharted has a handful of weekdays with premium screens, although it could claw back into IMAX if Chinese moviegoers don't feel like taking a trip to Gotham City; Batman should skew very heavily towards first- and second-tier cities; while lots of moviegoers live in those cities (like me!!), tapping the true potential of the Chinese box office market requires a product that'll sell seats even in more rural parts of the country. Based on the reviews I've read of Batman (trying to stay spoiler-free until I have the chance to see the movie in a few weeks), I'm expecting it to have relatively niche appeal in China with its grimdark tone, hefty runtime, and relative lack of action scenes.

I can't say I'm super inordinately excited for The Bad Guys, but I am looking forward to it more than something like Boss Baby 2. It's nice to see another bigger Hollywood production breaking from the same cookie-cutter Pixar/WDAS animation design. While Bad Guys doesn't look quite as stylistically extreme as Into the Spider-Verse or Mitchells vs. The Machines, it still seems like a fun change of pace, at least visually. If worse comes to worse, should still provide a solid 90 minutes of air conditioning, so…

Regardless of the tech being applied here, Cameron's thoughtfulness in composing an image, especially for 3D, should make this an absolute must-see. I was amazed when I saw the original during its Chinese re-release last year (and then went back again and again…). Sure, the 3D tech itself is impressive, but what really makes it sing is how carefully the image's composed to really highlight the 3D, with ferns placed towards the edge of frame to heighten that sense of depth, plus clever use of composing to make sure that things like particles drifting towards camera and large voids like empty spaceships/industrial spaces feel, well, huge. Basically tl:dr, I'm going to hyperventilate and faint from excitement the second this sequel releases any final images/footage. After over a decade of waiting, I still can't quite believe that Avatar 2 is actually almost a real thing maybe…

Not sure how well this will do in China, but The Bad Guys (local title: 坏蛋联盟, or roughly Bad Eggs Alliance when re-translated super literally) has cleared censorship and is now awaiting a release date. Personally, I'm looking forward to this one… animation looks fun and colorful, should be an entertaining 90 minutes in a theater.

There's always a possibility for No Way Home getting a massively delayed release at some point (the movie's reportedly made it past censorship and I could see the government allowing it into theaters well after piracy has taken its bite specifically to demonstrate that the Chinese audience won't automatically come out for anything Marvel). For quoting a specific selection, just highlight the sentence; an option should pop up allowing you to quote the selection. Hope that helped!

I wouldn't be surprised if things do soften up a bit this year. If the next few weeks are particularly egregious for China's box office sputtering and the US/Canada roaring back with a vengeance, maybe that could be a trigger for Beijing to relax a little bit more with the imported movies. (Plus, the Party's 100th anniversary is now over and the Beijing Winter Olympics are also over, so those factors should no longer be major factors) Quasi-related, but I was browsing the Global Times the other day to get a sense of what the CCP has to say about the whole Russia-Ukraine situation and scrolled down the webpage to find that they had bizarrely posted an article about Benedict Cumberbatch getting a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1253610.shtml), which… might possibly be a sign of hope for Multiverse of Madness???

Luca was released in Chinese theaters about two months after its Disney+ debut; Encanto hit Chinese theaters a few weeks after it appeared on Disney+ (Soul hit Chinese theaters day-and-date with its Disney+ release and did really well). There's certainly precedent for Turning Red to release in China, even/especially after the movie's easily available to pirate. Wouldn't be surprised if Beijing authorities are waiting for the Turning Red press cycle to wrap in the States to make sure that director Domee Shi doesn't say anything that goes against Beijing's interests a la Chloe Zhao or Simu Liu.

DreamWorks Animation's The Bad Guys approved for Chinese release; in the animated realm, still no word on Pixar's Turning Red. At this point, definitely looks like Disney is on Beijing's bad side as they're just not securing favorable release dates.

No major new theatrical releases in China for the coming weekend, either foreign or domestic. Watergate Bridge and Too Cool to Kill should easily lead the weekend again, although overall grosses ought to be sad (last Saturday represented a mere ¥118 million; this Saturday might not even exceed ¥100 million (converts to $15.8 million)). Time to see whether the US/Canada has what it takes to surpass China's box office in 2022; seems a very realistic outcome. Speaking of the dominant domestic releases, Watergate Bridge ought to cross ¥3.9 billion tomorrow (it's still pacing to cross ¥4 billion, thanks in part to the utterly pathetic lack of competition; Endgame ) and Too Cool to Kill is officially past ¥2.5 billion. Solid results for both movies, but massively underwhelming once compared to last year's top two Spring Festival releases, Hi Mom (a total of ¥5.4 billion) and Detective Chinatown 3 (a front-loaded ¥4.5 billion, but ¥4.5 billion all the same).

Still unknown whether China's getting a different cut. With that said, so long as there's nothing too explicit and the homosexual content is kept to dialogue (no implied sex scenes, no kissing), there's no need to censor the movie for China (for instance, both Avengers: Endgame and The Rise of Skywalker played uncut in China). While there are very real limits to what can make it onto a Chinese screen, Chinese censors tend to be more tolerant/flexible than censors in countries like Singapore and Russia (although, to be fair, Russia is now a non-issue).

Also, was playing around on Chinese ticketing site Maoyan and found a 133-minute runtime for Secrets of Dumbledore listed (there's a very good chance that this is official, at least for the version that'll play in China, given that the movie just made it through the entirety of the Chinese censorship/screening process, which does necessitate a locked cut and generally results in several government-approved documents listing things like suggested ticket prices and confirmed running time). While movies will release with China-specific cuts, Secrets is PG-13 and shouldn't have required any deletions to remove violence or nudity (basically, I'd be surprised if it received China-special censorship, although only time will tell if that's the case). So… a bit shorter than Fantastic Beasts and Crimes of Grindlewald? First two FB did 591 million RMB and 399 million RMB in China, respectively; suspect the new movie will perform in a similar range (if I had to go out on a limb, I'll guess 300-400 million RMB, so somewhere in the $50-60 million range). Although if the Potter fanservice is well-delivered, that number could go up as the Chinese Potter fandom is a real thing and word-of-mouth spreads lightning-fast through the Chinese Internet.

in somewhat surprising news given that the movie’s still 4-5 weeks away from its international rollout, Fantastic Beasts 3 is officially through the Chinese censorship process & approved for theaters (date TBD, although it’s now got a shot at going roughly day-and-date with the rest of the world)

Fantastic Beasts 3 approved for Chinese release; kind of unusual that it's gotten approved so far out in advance of a potential release date.

Warner Bros. has been very good at getting release dates recently, as evidenced by Matrix Resurrections and The Batman. Also relevant, Harry Potter anchors one of the themed lands in the newly opened (and lavishly expensive) Universal Studios Beijing, a quick & easy subway ride from the heart of the Chinese government (the theme park is also the subject of several glowing articles about the potential of the Chinese theme park market in Chinese Communist Party tabloid Global Times, i.e., https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234298.shtml and https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1240411.shtml, indicating some level of support from the government; the park's Potter area is frequently mentioned when discussing the theme park). TL; DR— The latest Fantastic Beasts should be a near-guarantee to secure a Chinese release. No guarantees of the movie going day-and-date, but I'll be shocked if the movie fails to make it to theaters in the People's Republic.

Overall Chinese box office for this last weekend (Feb. 25-27) came in at 274 million RMB ($43.4 million), which is… not the most impressive. Granted, there were zero noteworthy new releases (, but The Battle at Lake Changjin II and Too Cool to Kill are both well past their prime moneymaking days. As of right now, looks like next weekend's most noteworthy new release is a Chinese documentary. March 11-13 is similarly barren, especially with Uncharted bizarrely opening on the Monday. As ever, things can change rapidly in China and I suspect that they'll announce something new in the coming days (last year in mid-March they announced the Avatar rerelease with mere days of advance warning). ((Entering into the realm of fantastical speculation, it would be a spectacular troll move to date No Way Home for next weekend just as The Batman opens in the States))

Watergate Bridge is guaranteed to close several hundred million RMB lower than Endgame, so… not quite. Realistic best-case scenario right now for Watergate Bridge is crossing ¥4 billion, which is possible but difficult (the movie's proven quite front-loaded, even with an absolute dearth of competition, and there's only so much the government can do to boost the movie's grosses). Chinese moviegoers showed up in decent numbers but far too many people were simply not interested in watching more Battle at Lake Changjin.

Friday at the Chinese box office: Changjin II, Too Cool to Kill, and Nice View still leading the pack. Chinese sports drama Break Through flopped in sixth place with 2.7ish million RMB (~$425,000) and a whopping 1.0% of available seats sold (an average of two people per screening). A Rainy Day in New York in ninth with just over 1.8ish million RMB (~$300,000), although a less heinously embarrassing 2.3% of available seats sold (for comparison, the top five were all at 4% of seats sold and above). Overall box office at 65 million RMB/$10.4 million. So, on the whole, not great.

Moonfall officially approved for China; not yet dated. While previous Emmerich productions have done well in the People's Republic, my expectations are low after the movie's abysmal word-of-mouth performance in the States… although my hype level to see the moon destroyed on the big screen is admittedly quite pronounced.

shout-out to the producers of The Meg 2: The Trench for finding an actor who should make an even more satisfying megaladon opponent than Jason Statham (hopefully Wu Jing has a major role in the movie; he's got good screen presence and I really want to know who wins in the battle of wolf warrior & mega shark) consider my midnight screening ticket purchased

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/meg-2-the-trench-sienna-guillory-skyler-samuels-sergio-peris-mencheta-1235098531/ Bunch of Hollywood actors I'm not familiar with, but really, all that matters is that Chinese media have confirmed that Wu Jing is in this future masterpiece!! (The difference in English-language/Chinese-language casting announcements here is intriguing and pronounced) As far as actors I want to see go up against a giant-ass prehistoric shark, tbh can't think of anybody more exciting than the Wolf Warrior himself. Bring on the sequel!