porginchina

To be fair… I *am* planning on watching both.

Gotta say, after a few episodes of Prehistoric Planet, it's WILD that a streaming show has more realistic-looking CGI dinosaurs than this summer's big-budget big-screen Jurassic Park follow-up. Given that Apple TV+ isn't the most ubiquitous of streamers (and given the differences between a documentary and a blockbuster action movie), I don't think that having its dinosaurs outclassed will hurt Dominion that much, but I can't imagine the presence of Prehistoric Planet on the scene really helps Jurassic, either.

I will confess to some intrigue in how China's nationwide Covid numbers keep going down yet the number of open movie theaters is… also going down. 2022, quite the year for the Chinese box office!

Somewhat interesting comments from IMAX's CEO on China— https://deadline.com/2022/05/imax-ceo-rich-gelfond-china-hollywood-jurassic-world-dominion-top-gun-avatar-1235032420/ Based on the Chinese box office so far in 2020/2021/2022, not sure how strong the backlog of unreleased Chinese films really was… outside of The Eight Hundred, National Day releases, and Spring Festival, domestic movies have been pretty soft in the post-pandemic era.

The fine cinematic minds over at Global Times have weighed in on Everything Everywhere All at Once and Turning Red— https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1266460.shtml; looks like both movies are being tarred for unfavorable depictions of Chinese motherhood? (Everything Everywhere has been doing quite well on the Chinese Internet every since a high-quality HD copy of the movie leaked) Chinese film import standards continue to be weird.

Some intriguing action beats— swords! trains off cliffs! motorcycles off cliffs!— but this looks almost exactly like the other Mission: Impossible movies? I mean, I'll be seeing it when it comes out, but do wish I felt more blown away by the trailer. Going to be curious to see how Paramount's $290 million looks on the big screen.

After such triumphant sequels to Chinese mega-hits like Detective Chinatown 3 and Monster Hunt 2, I think I'll just start lowering my expectations for Nezha 2's future audience reception whenever the movie gets around to releasing (assuming Chinese theaters are functional enough for a big release at that point). These lowered expectations are admittedly exacerbated by Nezha follow-up Jiangziya debuting to super mixed word of mouth in 2019 (I'm in the extreme minority for enjoying that one more than Nezha, although in fairness, Jiangziya had much easier-for-a-stupid-foreigner-to-understand Chinese than Nezha, so that definitely helped).

Will be interesting to see if Mozart from Space keeps that mid-July release… with some recognizable stars, what appears to be a decent budget, and the high-profile director of Detective Chinatown, it's clearly got sizable box office aspirations. Maybe China will be opened up enough by then to justify the risk of releasing a Chinese movie into Chinese theaters? Will be interesting to see.

Honestly… yeah, that tracks (saying this from my perspective here during day 49ish of Shanghai's never-ending lockdown where, regardless of the local government's pronouncements that things are opening up, the city remains very much not opened up).

Not that Elvis, Crimes of the Future, or Three Thousand Years of Longing were ever expected to make a significant splash in China, but looks like all those movies (plus a number of other titles) are doomed since China is now angry at Cannes: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/cannes-2022-china-conspicuous-absence-covid-hong-kong-1235150139/

From the ~20 seconds of footage available so far, sure seems like this has the potential to commercially deliver, especially if the $65ish million budget figure I've read is at all accurate… looks like a movie that'll benefit from the theatrical experience.

The book's got enough plot that they easily could have split it into two movies, so good on Lionsgate for keeping things relatively compressed at one movie (that we know of so far). Guessing this'll drop heavily from the Hunger Games movies but if they keep the budget in check, this could still do reasonably okay. Could also benefit from the ongoing superhero movie dominance as this will be tonally different enough from ye average Marvel production to stand out to general audiences as a nice change of pace (although the movie could also suffer if it reminds folks too much of the horrors of contemporary politics). Should be interesting to follow!

For the record, most of the domestic productions Isaac spotlighted in his post are local romantic dramas aimed at 5.20 (the numbers, 五二零, sound somewhat similar to 我爱你, "I love you" in Chinese, hence 5.20's status as one of China's approx. eight billion unofficial Valentine's Days). The movies could feasibly delay to another major Chinese Valentine's Day, 七夕, in the summer (this year August 4). 断桥 (The Broken Bridge) was originally scheduled for June 3. I think it's the first major release to vacate June. Theater count has dipped again, back to the mid-60s%. I'm not really certain what the cause of the dip is; nationwide Covid cases continue to drop (Shanghai appears to have eased under 1,000 cases/day, assuming you actually trust the government's numbers, which… some people do, I guess). Could be that theaters are just starting to shut down due to a lack of business. Dynamic zero-Covid is going to take a massive bite out of the Chinese economy, and industries dependent on people showing up in-person, such as moviegoing, will be particularly hard-hit.

Fallen Kingdom made ¥1.695 billion in 2018; Jurassic World took in ¥1.438 billion in 2015. I'm guessing that Dominion might have a chance at becoming the first imported movie in 2022 to cross ¥1 billion (~$150 million), especially if the Covid situation can improve by that point. Although then again, Chinese movies are now vacating June release dates, so… a powerful Jurassic performance could instill some much-needed confidence into the box office. Maybe. China's box office has always been fun to track because it can be so unpredictable, but 2022 and the era of dynamic zero-Covid is raising the unpredictability to astonishing new heights.

100 million+ is still possible, especially as Covid cases fall more and more under control (Shanghai today announced that we'll start resuming normal life on June 1; will believe it when I see it, but good for the local government, attempting to convince people to be optimistic). Godzilla vs Kong did huge numbers last year, dinosaurs are popular among the Chinese, and audiences have been starved of any form of major release since Spring Festival. No way that Dominion grosses near its full China potential, but assuming that 75-80% of theaters are open, and assuming no real competition (the Chinese movies keep canceling their May/June releases), there's some potential here.

June 10 in China. We'll see how theaters are holding up by then (currently around 70% of China's theaters are open nationwide; Shanghai's Covid cases are dropping so there's a strong possibility that Shanghai will get to see dinosaurs on the big screen this summer).

Jurassic World Dominion — June 10 Looks like I know what my first movie'll be when Shanghai's theaters eventually reopen

On the one hand, Multiverse of Madness got itself banned from China. On the other hand, Marvel appears to have gotten its box office revenge, somewhat— in the time since Multiverse of Madness' US opening, China has lost its position as the world's top box office market. Stephen Strange may be massively frontloaded, but the movie's packed enough magical power to easily outrace China's dynamic zero-Covid-hit theaters. Acc. Box Office Mojo, US/Canada box office to date in 2022: $2.306 billion Acc. Maoyan, China's box office to date in 2022: ¥14.989 billion RMB (at current exchange rates, $2.201 billion)

Not sure when, exactly, it happened, but it's happened. China has lost its position as the world's top box office market. Dynamic zero-Covid gives (in 2020 and 2021) and it takes (in 2022). Acc. Box Office Mojo, US/Canada box office to date in 2022: $2.306 billion Acc. Maoyan, China's box office to date in 2022: ¥14.989 billion RMB (at current exchange rates, $2.201 billion)

One of the difficulties with tracking China's box office is that movies tend to get scheduled really last-second compared to other territories. While they'll announce some of the Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) movies well in advance, other holidays are… less fixed. I believe there are a few movies floating around that could be big, including 超能一家人 (roughly, Superpowered Family), a starry comedy that was originally scheduled for Spring Festival and then delayed indefinitely (could release this summer). I'd expect a big patriotic movie or two for National Day in October, although I'm not sure what those might be.

Impressively unimpressive performance for Marry Me, yet unsurprising. After March closed at ¥912 million RMB and April closed at ¥566 million RMB, looks like May might fall somewhere between the two months (¥352 million RMB to date, although with zero likely blockbusters on the horizon). On the bright-ish side, apparently Shanghai has informed folks to start a gradual opening up within the coming days, meaning that barring a viral resurgence, we could— could— see Shanghai's movie theaters return in a few weeks. Maybe. Possibly.

At this moment, unclear whether that will ever happen. China's box office in 2021 was almost entirely powered by two holiday periods (Spring Festival and National Day) and was otherwise embarrassingly weak. The 2022 box office is faltering and was showing signs of pronounced softness in January/February, before Covid controls really bit into ticket sales (pretty much all the Chinese productions are fleeing later into the year with the only new releases being imported titles like Marry Me and Downton Abbey: A New Era that would never have been blockbusters in the first place; Jurassic World Dominion remains approved but undated). Plus, the entire Chinese economy may or may not be crashing, which would take down theaters as well. I can't think of a time in the last few years when China has felt quite this unstable; the government prizes social stability but that's under massive pressure, making it difficult-to-impossible to predict anything beyond a few weeks from now. I think the one near-guarantee is that China's going to lose the title of world's largest box office territory within the coming weeks. No new May releases of note + actual US/Canada box office = China #2. And as blockbusters continue to come out in the States throughout the summer, the gap between the US/Canada and China will only continue to grow.

Why have we collectively decided that The Way of Water won't play in China? There are still seven months to go. So far, all indications within China are that the movie will play in theaters. Some factors in Avatar's favor— Censorship is a non-issue with Avatar 2. The movie uses an off-planet far-future setting far removed from issues that the CCP deems politically sensitive, plus the villainous RDA is coded as American, which can only help things. The US military-industrial complex being bad is a totally okay message for China. Also, Cameron/Lightstorm are well aware that China is a huge potential market and the movie will have been engineered to make it past Chinese censorship unscathed. The Chinese government's been promoting sustainability measures for the past years (they've outlawed a bunch of disposable plastic, water conservation campaigns are everywhere in China, green energy is a huge thing here); again, this helps The Way of Water. The movie ties in neatly with Chinese tourism initiatives, especially since it's now confirmed that the sequel will be returning to areas inspired by the mountains of Zhangjiajie National Park (plus there's still a possibility for building a Pandora themed land at Shanghai Disneyland, driving further economic growth). Being able to promote Chinese elements within the movie, such as the landscapes of Pandora, helps. Disney's not exactly a China favorite at the moment, but Cameron himself is on good political terms with China (see: the first movie's 2021 re-release, which came complete with a special video introduction for Chinese audiences). Hollywood movies in general are still getting into China (Fantastic Beasts, The Batman, Jurassic World, just to name a few). One that could swing things either way— China's box office has been weak throughout 2021 and 2022, with things truly diving off a cliff thanks to omicron/dynamic zero-Covid (doesn't help that Spring Festival was soft this year and The Battle at Lake Changjin II was unable to expand its audience beyond the nationalistic crowd). Chinese theaters are struggling right now. The US/Canada will surpass China's box office by the end of the month. Letting Avatar play could give a much-needed boost to theater owners and re-emphasize the importance of the Chinese market (while no Hollywood movie has topped the Chinese box office since Transformers: Age of Extinction, I could actually see The Way of Water being able to pull that feat off). We've still got seven months to go and the situation in China remains extremely fluid as the Party's prized social stability falls under increasingly greater pressure with what feels like every passing day. But if they can get Covid under control (not technically impossible) and get the economy functional again… at this point in time, all indications are that The Way of Water releases in mainland China. (I wrote a longer/more fleshed-out version of this as a blog post [https://middlekingdomboxoffice.wordpress.com/2022/05/13/will-avatar-2-release-in-china/ ] should anybody want to check my fuller thought process)

Another point with foreign movies and China— I would argue that there's actual value in culturally engaging with the Chinese people. Not every Hollywood movie can or should be designed with China in mind, but the political distance between the US and China is reaching alarming levels and the lack of understanding people in both countries have towards each other is, quite honestly, horrifying. I tend to support measures that can work to reduce that distance and reduce the possibility of full-on conflict in the coming years. And if Hollywood blockbusters can earn good will among the Chinese people, well, I support that effort.

If you refer to China as "this shit hole of a country," then yes, you're being racist/Trumpian. It's possible to discuss the political/economic situation in China without resorting to broad generalization that flattens the complexities of the country into a vague smear of derision. Not everyone in China is a member of the CCP; not everyone in the CCP is in favor of all of the government's current policies (a number of my friends are CCP members). Common practice for Hollywood productions that are budgeted at a level that require global grosses. Chinese censorship tends to get most of the headlines, but China's far from alone. Singapore can be quite strict with their censorship requirements, along with Russia (when that country was a factor); the Middle East as well. I'll agree that being overly sensitive to censorship demands is not great from an artistic health perspective, but claiming that China is the sole driver of censorship is entirely misleading. This particular forum boasts an international readership, not American-only. And a number of users on this forum have deep knowledge of China, whether from prolonged study or from actually being Chinese. TL; DR— I tend to agree that there are serious issues with the Chinese film market that are worth discussing and criticizing. But that discussion is impossible to achieve with any degree or nuance or sophistication if we resort to lowest common denominator Sinophobia.