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Having seen all of these movies (most of them in a Chinese theater with an audience), they just don't go together in the slightest bit… 长津湖 (The Battle at Lake Changjin)/长津湖之水门桥 (The Battle at Lake Changjin II) are historical epics with some actual basis in fact (in ways that are totally detrimental to the filmmaking, but there's an attempt to respect the historical record) 八佰 (The Eight Hundred) is also a historical epic rooted in fact, but its approach is entirely different from Lake Changjin (it's competently produced, for one) and it's also based in an entirely different war… the Korean War and the Sino-Japanese War are two very, very different things from an audience perspective 战狼2 (Wolf Warrior II) is a contemporary movie that is set in an unidentified African country; it's not even a war movie, it's just an action thriller. 红海行动 (Operation Red Sea) is similar to Wolf Warrior II, only somewhat more grounded and significantly more violent. Again, not based in any historic fact or any contemporary conflict ((Unrelated, but as far as Spring Festival 2022 releases centered on the Korean War, it's not even funny how much of a better movie Snipers is than The Battle at Lake Changjin II in just about every respect imaginable, other than production budget))

Feb. 10 mid-day: The Battle at Lake Changjin II has passed 3 billion RMB (it still has a chance at eventually making it past 4 billion by the end of its run). In other box office milestones Only Fools Rush In has sputtered past 500 million RMB and is pretty much done. As of now, the likely final ranking for Spring Festival releases— 长津湖之水门桥 The Battle at Lake Changjin II, 4ish billion RMB (currently at 3.03 billion) 这杀手不太冷静 Too Cool to Kill, somewhere in the vicinity of 2.5 billion RMB (currently 1.77 billion) 奇迹·笨小孩 Nice View, 1.2-1.3ish billion RMB (currently 875 million) 熊出没·重返地球 Boonie Bears: Back to Earth, just under 1 billion RMB (currently 718 million) 狙击手 Snipers, 500-550ish million RMB (currently 361 million; still has some life left in it) 四海 Only Fools Rush In, not much more than 500 million RMB (currently 500 million) 喜羊羊与黑太狼之筐出未来 Dunk for Future, approx. 170 million RMB (currently 125 million) 小虎墩大英雄 Run, Tiger, Run, 20ish million RMB (currently 19 million) In raw grosses, The Battle at Lake Changjin II currently ranks 14th all-time in China, ahead of every Hollywood release except for Avengers: Endgame; it's on pace to finish in eighth place all-time, between Operation Red Sea (3.65 billion) and Avengers: Endgame (4.25 billion). Too Cool to Kill currently ranks 29th all-time and has a chance of breaking into the top 20 by the end of its run.

With Watergate Bridge now at 2.97 billion RMB after nine days in theaters, The Battle at Lake Changjin duology has now accumulated 8.74 billion RMB ($1.4 billion), overtaking Detective Chinatown as the most successful domestic franchise/series at the Chinese box office. Which is simultaneously impressive and speaks to the fact that China is really, really bad at creating big, sustainable domestic franchises, given that Monster Hunt and Detective Chinatown both suffered massively from sequels with poor word-of-mouth and Wolf Warrior ran straight into complicated geopolitical tensions. Watergate Bridge should cross 3 billion RMB tomorrow; Maoyan predictions have been hovering around 3.9 billion for the final… if it gets close enough to 4 billion, wouldn't be too unfeasible for the Chinese to help it over the finish line.

Overall Spring Festival box office (Feb. 1-6) at 6.035 billion RMB (~$950 million), down ~24% from 2021, although slightly up compared to 2019 (way off of projections in the 7-8 billion RMB range). Attendance of 114 million is lower than 2018, 2019, and 2021 despite this year's Spring Festival boasting a record number of showtimes (over 3 million). Average ticket price is up ~1 RMB compared to 2021. Overall 2022 Chinese box office to date is 9.1 billion RMB (~$1.45 billion). Looking at Maoyan projections, Battle at Lake Changjin II is heading towards somewhere in the vicinity of 4 billion RMB, down approx. 30% from part one, although still enough to make the all-time top ten for the Chinese box office. Looks like it'll close with a lower Chinese gross than Avengers: Endgame, which I find intriguing. Too Cool to Kill is on track for somewhere in the vicinity of 2.5 billion RMB, good enough for the all-time top 20. Nice View has recovered nicely from its day two plummet and should hit 1.3ish billion RMB (good to see since it's a genuinely well-crafted movie). Snipers is on track to cross 500 million RMB and overtake Only Fools Rush In, which will have an opening day to final gross multiplier of under 3.0 (having seen the movie, not surprised… outside of a bland lead performance from Liu Haoran, I had a great time, but the movie is single-mindedly dedicated to subverting audience expectations). This year's Boonie Bears is doing quite well for the franchise and now has the Spring Festival record for an animated movie over Spring Festival, which to be fair isn't saying all that much; the other animations aren't especially noteworthy. Variety's story on Spring Festival box office noted that year-on-year, the box office is approximately double, although they note that the timing of Spring Festival can explain much of that. Between the massive drop for the Spring Festival holiday period and the fact that January was also off ~25% of 2021 (China's lowest-grossing full January since 2015, with the exception of COVID-interrupted 2020), things are not looking promising for 2022. As far as politically significant figures, China's leading the US/Canda by about $1 billion so far in 2022; probably fair to expect the lead to grow over the next few weeks, but the second The Batman opens in the US… I struggle to see China maintaining its global box office crown in 2022.

The daily tallies for the two movies really aren't directly comparable given the massive differences in the two holiday periods in which they launched (TBALC was always going to rise from opening day to day two; WGB was always going to have its highest-grossing day on opening day). A head-to-head comparison like this doesn't reveal anything, other than WGB's lack of staying power compared to its predecessor.

They also retroactively decreased ATP/increased attendance for Spring Festival between yesterday and today, which seems… like an interesting decision.

Nothing that I've seen from tracking Maoyan. As far as US/foreign releases go, Death on the Nile is Feb. 19; A Rainy Day in New York Feb. 25; Uncharted is approved but not yet dated. I wouldn't expect any subsequent announcements on film releases until after the end of the Spring Festival holiday period (Feb. 7) at the earliest. Release dates can be announced anywhere from a month in advance to two days ahead of time. Over the past year-plus, China's been even more erratic than usual with release date announcements.

One trick is that Lake Changjin and Watergate Bridge filmed as a single production… I think that $200 million figure (or at least a significant portion of it) was split between the two movies, although they may have kicked some more money into Watergate Bridge since the technical elements of the movie are noticeably more competent than in part one. Pretty sure that they've already well surpassed breakeven on the overall production.

这个杀手不太冷 (Too Cool to Kill), the only out-and-out comedy of this year's Spring Festival crop, is holding better than the competition so far and is projected to pass 2 billion RMB, which is a lot… but otherwise, no major breakouts.

gotta inflate those numbers somehow… Chinese theaters have been suffering since summer 2021 and I guess they want to make money while they can looking like a day 2 tally below ¥500 million despite those pricey tickets and a substantial increase in showtimes over yesterday

Playing around with attendance numbers on Maoyan… Battle at Lake Changjin Sept. 30 (opening day; not a holiday) — 4.25 million Oct. 1 (start of the National Day holiday) — 8.36 million Oct. 2 — 8.95 million Oct. 3 — 9.69 million Oct. 4 — 9.95 million Oct. 5 — 10.2 million Oct. 6 – 10.6 million Oct. 7 (last day of National Day holiday) — 8.1 million Battle at Lake Changjin 2 Feb. 1 (opening day; Spring Festival) — 10.7 million It's hard to describe The Battle at Lake Changjin 2 as a flop… the movie will still, in all likelihood, make a massive amount of money (I'd guess that ~$650ish million is the low end), and it barely needed to sell a single ticket to become profitable given how much money its predecessor made, but it's definitely not as impressive as it could be, especially given how inflated ticket prices are this holiday. The fact that opening day for a sequel, complete with Spring Festival boost, barely managed to get single-day attendance beyond the first movie's biggest days during National Day is underwhelming, and perhaps indicative of the fact that there's a domestic ceiling for patriotic Chinese war movies. Granted, a very high ceiling, but a ceiling all the same. Today's attendance for Changjin 2 is definitely dipping below ten million, and I suspect that it will continue to fall throughout the holiday (February 4 could be ugly with the Beijing 2022 opening ceremony).

The weird/disconcerting thing is that they actually do. They're actively encouraging the construction of cinemas around the country with the intention to boost China's soft power (and increase their ability to spread propaganda to the masses). They've released five-year plans about boosting soft power/cinema count/box office; it's definitely a priority. Box office is also a good way to brag about China's economic strength. They don't necessarily care about box office for foreign movies, but overall, for building domestic Chinese culture and showcasing the strength of China's economy… it's among their priorities. So, basically, going to be really interesting to see how they react, assuming that Spring Festival 2022 box office doesn't seriously pick up

Valentine's Day has a bunch of Chinese romance films, which tend to get sky-high 'want to see' indexes (I believe driven by a young, female, super online demographic), that sometimes open big but almost always flame out immediately. None of the Valentine's Day releases should be any sort of threat to Changjin II… the worries at this stage are a) as a sequel that really just offers more of the same, the movie is unlikely to significantly grow its audience from part one b) the Olympics are likely to cut into viewership starting February 4

Looks like Maoyan has now recalculated Changjin II to hit a total 4.9 billion RMB (~780 million USD), which is a respectable total for the movie as a sequel, but not at all impressive for the leading Chinese New Year release in a year that isn't offering much in the way of serious competition… 2022 is off to a pretty pathetic start for the Chinese box office

OD for Watergate Bridge was always going to be much higher than Battle at Lake Changjin since Changjin opened on Sept. 30 (the day before the official start of National Day) whereas Bridge opened on Spring Festival proper, which tends to be the highest-attended day of the holiday. Anecdotally, saw Watergate Bridge this afternoon in Shanghai (one of the nicer IMAX theaters in town); the auditorium was perhaps 60-70% full. Reaction seemed fine, I guess; a bit quieter than I'd expect. Watergate Bridge didn't play as fun with a crowd as, say, a Detective Chinatown romp. Compared to its predecessor, the messaging in Watergate Bridge feels more directed at other countries (look at how determined Chinese soldiers are!) than the first movie (which has a more appreciate the veterans vibe). That said, the action is better in the new movie and the production as a whole feels more technically competent this time round (and no, that's not saying much, but improvement is improvement). I'm not sure if this one will play much beyond the more nationalistic/patriotic crowd. Opening day was already 20% off of Maoyan's last-minute prediction. Holds are going to be interesting.

Also, as we wait for anything interesting to happen with the Chinese box office (other than Spring Festival presales), my mostly baseless speculation for some forthcoming Hollywood blockbusters and factors that may or may not influence their chances at a Chinese release. Some of this will depend on Spring Festival; ironically, I think a really strong Spring Festival would be a good sign for Hollywood as China could allow more foreign movies in without losing face over having a weak domestic box office (not sure how they'd handle a weak Spring Festival putting China in a vulnerable box office position, but I can't imagine authorities having to admit that they need to rely on Hollywood to preserve Chinese movie theaters) Uncharted— officially approved, waiting on a release date; I’d guess late February (maybe Feb. 25) Spider-Man: No Way Home— there’s a high-quality pirated version making the rounds on the Chinese Internet, so seems like it’s about time to give this one a a release date (could go either way but I lean towards optimism… government hasn’t singled Spider-Man out in any of their fits about offensive Marvel movies and I’ve seen posters for No Way Home at some Shanghai movie theaters, although in fairness posters at theaters don’t actually mean much) Moonfall— sure seems like the type of movie that should go to Chinese theaters (and it has some Chinese financing, although that didn't help Venom 2) The Batman— with a PG-13, don’t see why it wouldn’t get an uncensored Chinese release (and WB’s ability to snag releases for Dune and Matrix bodes well for Batman) Turning Red & Lightyear— Pixar’s other recent movies have landed theatrical Chinese releases. Lightyear should be fine, although it won’t make much; Turning Red has a lot more potential upside, but having a director of Chinese descent could be problematic depending on whether any über-nationalistic netizens can dig up dirt on director Domee Shi Morbius— could go either way after Venom 2; can't see it making massive money in China even with a release Sonic the Hedgehog 2— strikes me as a relatively safer bet to secure a Chinese release date, although not a potential blockbuster in the making (which makes it all the safer a bet to secure a Chinese release) Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald & Minions: The Rise of Gru & Jurassic World: Dominion— lumping these three together as Harry Potter, Minions, and Jurassic World all anchor themed lands at the newly opened (and lavishly expensive) Universal Studios Beijing, making me think that they have a decent chance of landing Chinese release dates (although the theme park is more a project of the local Beijing city government, as opposed to film releases, which are determined by the national Chinese government) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness & Thor: Love and Thunder & Black Panther: Wakanda Forever— who knows when Marvel will be forgiven by Beijing for Shang-Chi and Eternals (I expect Marvel to be forgiven at some point; the brand is strong and Disney generally does okay with China) Top Gun: Maverick— would be embarrassing (and hilarious) if they didn’t get a Chinese release date after the highly publicized alteration of the fighter jackets to remove Taiwan symbols Black Adam & The Flash & Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom— I don’t think DC is in trouble with Chinese authorities (although the odds of Aquaman releasing in 2022 against Avatar 2 seem questionable) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Part One— Spider-Man’s a popular character in China and the movie isn’t connected to the MCU, so I’d guess that this one should be okay to release Avatar 2— in my mind, the year’s big question mark. A Hollywood movie hasn’t topped the annual Chinese box office since Transformers: Age of Extinction in 2014. Based on James Cameron’s track record, a well-timed release for Avatar 2 would give the movie a shot at the all-time Chinese record… something I assume authorities are keen to avoid handing to a non-domestic release. Depending on how Spring Festival goes this year (and the summer season and National Day), I could easily see Avatar 2 being treated sub-optimally to ensure that a Chinese movie maintains the crown. Then again, Cameron is popular in China and seems careful to stay on the right side of authorities, and the original Avatar did fairly well in its rerelease last year. So… basically I have no idea what will happen.

100% agree. I've seen a ton of domestic Chinese movies, with an emphasis on the big government-favored narratives a la Battle at Lake Changjin (much to the amusement/derision of my Chinese friends and colleagues). Western coverage I read of the Chinese box office describes way too many of these movies with a simplistic "patriotic" and fails to take into account any of the complexity behind Chinese movie production and Chinese moviegoing (and while Lake Changjin is a technically incompetent mess of a movie that I cannot in good consciousness recommend to anyone, some of the so-called propaganda movies are genuinely well-made and engaging! for instance, many of the segments in the Me and… series are legit wonderful). Honestly, feel like the nonstop focus on the triumph of Chinese propaganda is just scaremongering, creating a false demon for Hollywood to fight, and (indirectly) slandering the Chinese people as thoughtless sheep blindly following Xi Jinping's every whim when the reality is far more complicated and nuanced and interesting. A lot of my curiosity with Changjin II comes from the fact that some of the most propaganda-ish of the so-called propaganda movies have comparatively sputtered at the box office recently (1921, which released on the CCP's self-appointed 100th birthday of July 1, flamed out hard despite zero competition; Chinese Doctors failed to come anywhere close to Chinese Pilot from the same creative team despite having no competition). I could be mistaken, but we've also never seen a follow-up to a mega-grossing Chinese movie manage to achieve quality word-of-mouth (Monster Hunt 2, Detective Chinatown 3, Jiang Ziya, etc.); it'll be fascinating to see how this sequel does (just a few days to go until opening day, am excited).

Was playing around on Maoyan today and found that they've uploaded projected totals for Feb. 1 presales and Feb. 1 grosses for all the Spring Festival releases this year (NB: because this post touches on total grosses, I decided it fit better in the general discussion thread rather than the dedicated presales discussion thread). Without further adieu… Maoyan estimated total presaes for Feb. 1 (in millions), in descending order (note: these estimates are… interesting; for instance, Nice View has been leading Only Fools Rush In since the start and there’s nothing to indicate that Only Fools would actually overtake Nice View) 长津湖之水门桥 (The Battle at Lake Changjin II) ¥321/$51.4 四海 (Only Fools Rush In) ¥99.4/$15.9 奇迹·笨小孩 (Nice View) ¥97.4/$15.6 这个杀手不太冷静 (Too Cool to Kill) ¥91.2/$14.6 熊出没：重返地球 (Boonie Bears: Back to Earth) ¥51.5/$8.24 狙击手 (Snipers) ¥42.1/$6.73 喜羊羊与黑太狼之筐出未来 (Dunk For Future) ¥19.9/$3.19 小虎墩大英雄 (Run Tiger Run) ¥7.95/$1.27 Maoyan estimated total grosses for Feb. 1 (in millions) 长津湖之水门桥 (The Battle at Lake Changjin II) ¥922/$147 (if this is the slightest bit accurate — if — we could see the second-highest single-day gross for a Chinese movie, only behind Detective Chinatown 3’s opening day) 奇迹·笨小孩 (Nice View) ¥247/$39.2 四海 (Only Fools Rush In) ¥212/$33.9 这个杀手不太冷静 (Too Cool to Kill) ¥188/$30.1 狙击手 (Snipers) ¥98.5/$15.8 熊出没：重返地球 (Boonie Bears: Back to Earth) ¥80.9/$12.9 喜羊羊与黑太狼之筐出未来 (Dunk For Future) ¥27.3/$4.3 小虎墩大英雄 (Run Tiger Run) ¥8.90/$1.42 This would add up to a total of $1780ish, above 2021’s ¥1692 single-day on Spring Festival and 2019’s ¥1458. With a few days to go, a lot can change, and as mentioned before, some of these guesses seem wonky, especially for the total presales. We’ve also seen plenty of movies recently fail to meet their initial Maoyan projected totals (Matrix Resurrections is one example with its astonishingly bad Chinese social media scores, but Wuhan 2020-themed comedy/drama 穿过寒冷拥抱你 (Warm Embrace) similarly sputtered off its massive New Year’s weekend and will close under the ¥1 billion mark). Personally, I'm still expecting ¥700ish million RMB for Changjin II's opening day, with the caveat that this is a cheerfully uninformed guess based on nothing but personal instinct. For reference, I’ve pulled all these numbers out of Maoyan as of ~3:00 p.m. China time on Jan. 29; creating the lists of estimates required going to each new release one-by-one and looking at presales data.

From the article (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1250077.shtml), that's an overall predicted range of ¥7-8 billion for all movies combined, not just for Watergate Bridge… they're predicting about ¥3 billion for Watergate Bridge, with no prediction for the movie's final tally and a hilarious note that word of mouth will affect eventual results (for comparison, The Battle at Lake Changjin took in ¥3.2 billion over National Day last year; Detective Chinatown 3 took in ¥3.56 billion over Spring Festival last year, and Hi, Mom took in 2.73 billion). Detective Chinatown 3 is totally undefeatable for a pure Fri-Sun opening weekend since that movie benefited from having Spring Festival on a Friday, and given the strength of Detective Chinatown 3's opening day, will be hard to unseat over Spring Festival, especially with competition coming from the Winter Olympics. Plus, while Global Times is sometimes useful for box office analysis, they're so fiercely nationalistic/pro-Party as to be not the most reputable when it comes to accurately projecting numbers (on no planet does any data anywhere suggest that Snipers will be a threat to any of the major competitors; last year, they suggested that the first Changjin could make ¥8 billion, which… it did not). The fact that even the Party mouthpiece newpaper is projecting that Changjin 2 will open less than the first one and potentially be affected by audience fatigue and negative word-of-mouth is, however, extremely noteworthy.

I'd be surprised if it got banned for that reason. I live in China and have become fairly familiar with how they handle censorship (okay, they tend to handle things inconsistently), but non-explicit LGBTQ+ content is generally okay (Avengers: Endgame released here uncensored, as did Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker). China's more tolerant of LGBTQ+ content compared to, say, Russia or Singapore; the country does have issues with discrimination and does have lots of room for improvement, but social attitudes are changing (every year one of the top proposed changes to the legal system is legalizing gay marriage). Also, Universal Studios Beijing opened in September 2021 with a (very popular) Harry Potter themed area. While USB is more of a local Beijing city government project than a national government project, the existence of the park likely helps increase the odds of Secrets of Dumbledore landing a Chinese theatrical release.

Looks like all the Spring Festival releases are seeing inflated ticket prices… as of now-ish, the figures I've got: 长津湖之水门桥 (Battle at Lake Changjin II) 61.4 RMB 奇迹·笨小孩 (Nice View) 58.0 RMB 四海 (Only Fools Rush In) 57.3 RMB 这个杀手不太冷静 (Too Cool to Kill) 55.3 RMB 狙击手 (Snipers) 54.3 RMB My assumption is that the average price will dip once we edge out of presales into actual sales, but yeah… Chinese theaters are going to try to earn money where they can, especially in a depressed market like we have at the moment. The first Battle at Lake Changjin only edged out Wolf Warrior II thanks to its significantly higher average ticket price.

Chinese theaters will jack up ticket prices if they sense that demand is strong (especially for IMAX, especially for opening day). I paid ~80 RMB for my opening day ticket; a quick glance through Maoyan tells me that one downtown Shanghai theaters is charging 175 RMB for an IMAX screening (the screen isn't even that good, wtf), although most ticket prices for non-IMAX/premium screenings seem to be in a more sensible 55-75ish RMB range (again, in Shanghai, which will be generally more expensive).

Presales for the top five Spring Festival releases on opening day, as of the end of the day 1.27 China time (four full days to go) 长津湖之水门桥 (Battle at Lake Changjin II) — 110 million RMB / 17.6 million USD 奇迹·笨小孩 (Nice View) — 38.6 million RMB / 6.17 million USD 四海 (Only Fools Rush In) — 34.6 million RMB / 5.53 million USD 这个杀手不太冷静 (Too Cool to Kill) — 32.1 million RMB / 5.14 million USD 狙击手 (Snipers) — 17.5 million RMB / 2.80 million USD Overall still kinda underwhelming. Overall Spring Festival presales (for Feb. 1 alone) are at ~253 million RMB / 40.5 million USD, with Changjin II at 43.6% of that figure. The movie does seem to be following a fairly linear pattern so far; will be interesting to see if/when it spikes as opening day draws nearer.

Worth noting that the political contexts surrounding the two movies are super distinct— the first Avatar was useful to demonstrate the potential of China's box office to deliver massive grosses for foreign movies, so the authorities had some incentive to allow it to break records (plus, China was generally more open to other countries). While a lot can happen in the coming months, especially with hugely significant political events like the imminent 2022 Winter Olympics and the CCP's conference coming up this fall to determine leadership for the next five years, based on the current situation it looks like Avatar 2 will be encountering a much more isolationist China with no need to prove that foreign movies can make big money (with that said, I can see where Avatar 2 might be an appealing hit for Chinese authorities since Cameron's been consistently quite neutral in his rhetoric towards Beijing, they've used the first movie to promote domestic tourism, and having a movie succeed in China off Chinese nostalgia could provide a nice economic message for the rest of the world). Then again, trying to predict the decision-making of Chinese authorities is always a bit of a gamble. Plus, assuming that Cameron will have a finished/locked picture five weeks before his scheduled release date seems… well, let's see if it actually releases this December. F9's five weeks early release was a truly singular event based on the timing of the CCP's 100th anniversary celebration; at the very, very most, I'd expect Avatar 2 to release a few weeks ahead of its main international rollout in the spirit of the first Aquaman or, more likely, release slightly after the rest of the world, like the first Avatar.

To be fair, assuming Avatar 2 gets a Chinese release date in December 2022 or early January 2023 (Spring Festival 2023 is Jan. 22, which could prove an obstacle for legs), it should handily defeat all of the MCU phase four movies' China grosses, combined. (Possible domestic Chinese competition for Avatar 2 could come from The Wandering Earth 2, which is currently in production and tentatively scheduled for Spring Festival 2023)