Mickiland16

Spider-Verse audience on the opening weekend were 67% non-families and more than half over 25 it's not 100% like a MCU sequel but it's still far from being like any animation movie even as for the live-action remakes The Lion King still had more familes and The Incredibles 2 got 66% under 25 by the end of the opening weekend.

Could AtSV be used as a comp with Transformers last week of pre-sales? Demographic breakdown for Bumblebee was similar to ITS except that BB skewed way more female.

What kind of first day and pre-sales run are you guys expecting for Across the Spider-Verse? On one side it's pure animation but ITS demo showed a families/non families ratio closer to a superhero movie rather than a family film where even the Disney remakes and Pixar sequels skewed more families.

Lilo and Stitch is going to Disney Plus which I don't understand (I believe it could have done Jungle Book numbers and maybe $1B) and I think Moana will do well but they kinda wasted its potential by doing it so fast. I believe it could have been the BATB of the 2010s movies.

There's still Hercules and The Hunchback, none of them will be a $1 billion grosser but should be okey between Cinderella and Maleficent. That's enough to wait untill something like 2027 and start with Princess and the Frog. That one, Tangled and Big Hero 6 have a $1B potential with Frozen and Zootopia being locks. I'd say Moana too but they didn't even wait 10 years...we'll see.

Good to hear more than 5 seconds of a song that isn't Part of Your World. This scene looks cute I like it.

Yeah the hype for Transformers is way bigger than what it ever was for Shazam, Dark Phoenix or MIB International where not even the fans cared. The amount of likes on Facebook, Twitter, TikTok and Youtube doesn't look like a movie that "no one cares" when it has been outperforming Fast X and the last trailer has more likes than The Flash on the main youtube channel.

Is so funny to me how when the Fandango poll got posted on social media the comments were like "who's excited for The Little Mermaid", "who want to see a Disney remake", "take it out of there"(it's a poll lmao), "it's going to flop" (especially on Facebook) like yeah dude surprise you're beef with a children movie doesn't representated the general audience. Same recently with the Box Office Pro tracking, some are already saying that they're faking numbers lol.

What time are reactions dropping?

I think Inside Out 2 could make $500M domestic if they waited a few years more for the original to be as old as Finding Nemo or The Incredibles when their respective sequels came out, with 2022 ticket price is already over $440M adjusted. I think it'll be over $400M and probably only under Avatar as the biggest of 2024 (only domestic) though. My guess on why TS5 over Nemo 3 or The Incredibles 3 is that Toy Story is still selling more merchandising specially since TS4 did a better job by introducing new popular characters than the others. Kinda translate to the streaming too where Toy Story 4 has outperformed I2 and the original Toy Story is at the top of Pixar movies.

Oh no I didn't mean KFP4 making $500M 😂 I was talking about Pixar making something similar for Toy Story 5 in the sense of returning characters. I think Woddy and Andy reunion would be highly anticipated by fans. Sure, fan service after TS3 ending but nostalgia has worked for them so far.

So after Mario, how long do you guys think we'll have to wait untill the third animated movie over $500M domestic? My bet is on Frozen 3 or Shrek 5 so between two and three years, maybe Toy Story 5 depending on if the story they sell on the trailers looks like another movie (still will make money) or there's an actual hook like what Dreamworks is doing with Kung Fu Panda.

If you mean all superhero there's still one left:

As for Transformers, I was looking at the previous movies demos and surprisingly (or at least to me) Bumblebee (35%) skewed more families than Into The Spider-Verse (33%) and Fallen Kingdom (30%) on the same year. The percentage of people under 25 was also higher than ITS and more female too (43% for BB and 33% for ITV) so pre-saled are probably going to be more walk-up heavy than most of live-action blockbusters but since Dominion started earlier what movie could be a good comp here?

So how likely is $100M OW at this point? Could it do it on the three days weekend only?

The november battle sure has became more interesting now, I thought The Marvels would be the clear winner worldwide but if GOTG 3 goes under the first movie I'm not sure anymore (I already have the thought of Hunger Games making some fight domestic though).

Superman Legacy and The Brave and the Bold are probably going to be okey the problem will be with the unknown characters, Supergirl could do fine depending on the budget though, a TV show and debuting on the big screen already should make her a more common name with the GA.

The Incredibles 3 would be the most likely if (or when) it happens since the previous one already adjusts to around $700M domestic and at the current rate it will probably come out at least 8 years since that which should be enough to make it another movie event. The other options are Shrek 5 and Frozen 3 but I doubt it for both, maybe a Toy Story movie that serves as the Force Awakens/No Way Home of animation with adult Andy and old characters coming back but really a huge maybe.

No sure how reliable is this. I cheked his account and he's been posting about others movies though.

For what it's worth you can hear Daveed Diggs' "Under the Sea" at the end

I'm expecting one of them to move since both targets a similar or basically the same audience, don't think Disney nor Universal is that arrogant when none of both is really a small movie.

My early prediction domestically is: Over $500M: Avatar 3 (also over $600M) Over $400M: Inside Out 2 Deadpool 3 Over $300M: Mission Impossible 8 Beyond the Spider-Verse Mufasa: The Lion King Despicable Me 4 Over $200M: Joker 2 Snow White Captain America: New World Order Sonic 3 Blade Elio if it or KP4 moves (trusting on good WOM for this one) Over $150M: Kung Fu Panda 4 Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes The Karate Kid Transformers One Thunderbolts

How are pre-sales looking there?

I don't know anything but if presales in the UK has started we can guess that in the USA it's not far away. China pre-sales starts pretty close to release for Hollywood blockbusters recently, Fast X hasn't started yet and Guardians went on sale just days ago.