emoviefan
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Posts posted by emoviefan
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1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Make me wonder if fewer movies like this one will screen at Cannes first.
Still can't believe somebody at Disney made that decision before making damm sure the Cannes crowd of Critics were going to be favorable to it. This sounds more and more like a movie general critic and audiences will enjoy.We will probably not see most of those reviews to week of release and that could help late ticket buys.
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6 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:
Nah, James Gunn got this. Superman Legacy is one of my most anticipated films not in active production right now. What they need is someone that understands, loves and can plan ahead. They got one of the best in the business right now, James Gunn will knock Superman Legacy out of the park, I am very confident on that.
Exactly. Right there with you.
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2 minutes ago, El Gato said:
Man, DC’s reboot is about to bomb hard in 2025! The might want to reconsider a shared universe and just do individual character driven films for the main draws.
As for The Flash, it’s going to be brutal online this weekend! This film is going to be torn apart if it doesn’t get 100M opening weekend! At least have a 9 or 8 in front because a 6 or a 7 is just horrendous! I’m seeing it on Sunday, so hopefully it’s a good film… though I doubt they’ll announce getting rid of Ezra anytime soon (they’ll wait until The Flash has finished its run).
Please Blue Beetle, be drama free!
Why would the reboot bomb hard because the leftover product is bombing or underperforming? People aren't going to ignore Superman Legacy because of the Flash underperforming and shazam FOG bombing.
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2 minutes ago, Mulder said:
Rise of The Beasts was trending upwards at this point in time. We were seeing shifts in its performance that indicated last minute interest and then the Thursday of we were seeing those walk-ups in action. Before the weekend everyone was pretty set on it opening in the 50s being a genuine possibility, and then it overperformed by 5-6 million. Let's say Flash does that, if we're thinking 65 that only puts it in 70/71. If we're thinking 70/71 that puts its in 75/76. If we're thinking 75 that puts it in 80/81. None of these numbers are good, just various degrees of bad and that's just ignoring how the tracking is not suggesting this.
And I acknowledged that by saying the Flash may have too much baggage in the end to overcome.Nothing rules out though there being a lot of walkups on thursday combined with good wom and a holiday weekend with two holidays to save a little face. it may be unlikely but still possible. let me type out your likely response to this- The trendline does not show this likely happening. Got it.
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7 minutes ago, excel1 said:
Historically, this generally also means something is about to majorly overperform - either with exceptionally prolonged box office legs or random unforeseen opening weekend blow ups.
- The Flash word of mouth looks like it will be quite good - maybe we are about to see a well above average multiple.
- Barbie online buzz has been immense, maybe we see a dramatic overperformance.
- Mission Impossible may about to have their own 'Skyfall' type of eruption.
The moviegoer markets doesn't just vanish, interest will shift to something else...
Also I feel Indiana Jones will be fine if the general regular critics continue to be more positive than the snooty critics at Cannes. That should be enough for the older casual walkup moviegoers to get off the fence on what will be a 5 day extended weekend for a lot of people. As for the Flash maybe there is just too much baggage to overcome in the end. Of course all this doom and gloom is happening right after Transformers proved how worthless tracking and presales can be sometimes.
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55 minutes ago, excel1 said:
FLASH OPENS TO ROCk SOLID $95m (including Juneteenth)
That would be great. From your lips to the Movie god's ears.
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1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:
Those comps have looked good so far, but keep in mind it's losing ground to both comps. As I posted, RoTB comp pointed to $14M+ yesterday, now its $13.5M
FWIW, I'm at $11M+ previews ~$80M OW but that could slip lower depending on what other trackers report and how it does M-THUR
Yep I still feel it can go either way. Fingers crossed, Also. Thanks for not not responding with a condescending remark unlike some other people.
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1 minute ago, 21C said:
I mean... it is a CBM.
Thanks for letting me know I was not aware of that.....sigh dont know why i bother.
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7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:
GREATER ORLANDO REGION
The FlashTHURSDAY includes fan screenings
T-4
SHOWINGS
SEATS SOLD
TOTAL SEATS
PERCENT SOLD
189
3354
38172
8.8%
*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST
SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY
121 SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY
0
SELLOUTS
1
COMPS
T-4
(0.439x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3
~$7.7M THUR Previews
(0.604x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE
~$10.5M THUR Previews
(1.665x) of FAST X
~$12.5M THUR Previews
(1.530x) of TRANSFORMERS RoTB
~$13.5M THUR Previews
COMPS AVG: $11.1M Previews
NOTE: RoTB comp was (1.626x) yesterday ~$14.3M
A steep decline especially for the ATSV comp, but @Menor Reborn is probably right about the Sunday bump. Let's see how it goes tomorrow
The Transformers and Fast X comps do not seem that bad. yes every movie is different but if those hold or get better 70 seems like a worst case unless we should be comparing to the CMB's which yikes hope not.
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14 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:
Going to try to stay positive but maybe the Ezra and Dead Universe being rebooted factor is too much to overcome. Still have a hard time seeing this underopen BA though. At least its got summer weekdays and WOM hopefully to help.
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6 minutes ago, Austin said:
That thread had a burst of activity last week idk what you are talking about lol.
I think they are waiting for the buzz of all these films being released in June to pass before they start kicking marketing in high gear. I would guess they will start marketing pretty hard between the weekend after The Flash's release and Indy 5's opening weekend.
They are also probably hoping Late Night shows resume if a deal gets made with the WGA soon. Probably won't happen but that's their best case scenario.
Yep all true. I just realized I pulled a Maggie worrying about this movie and its marketing and such. I am sure everything will be fine.
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5 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:
so your metric for worry about mi7 is that the thread on this forum doesn't get much discussion and that some memers on twitter talk about oppenheimer/barbie a lot?
mi6 made almost 800m, it has a dedicated fanbase that will show up and give it a floor that oppenheimer and likely even barbie will fail to hit
You are right. I am one of those dedicated members of the MI fanbase. It just feels like sometimes those movies get forgotten and made fun off and nobody can tell the difference between the movies yadda yadda but in the end they do make money and are well loved by us fans.
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7 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:
forgotten by who?
You seen anybody commenting on the Mission Impossible page much recently. Not a lot of buzz for a movie this expensive and anticipated. Just saying I think Paramount needs to kick it into gear now that they have Transformers out of the way. I am sure they will but having the two movies that follow you dominate the July movie conversation is a little concerning.
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23 minutes ago, Redolent said:
It will be interesting to see if there’s an uptick in Oppenheimer ticket sales, ie people planning the ‘double feature’ viewing.Paramount from Wednesday on better really go hard with MI DR marketing because right now it feels like that movie is being completely forgotten in this Barbie vs Oppenheimer conversation for that following weekend.
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4 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:
If people are not on board with seeing the movie by now then there is nothing that can change that in a few days.
Isn't that true of most movies. Me and my friends and family who plan to see the movie have not bought our tickets yet. There are a lot of us like that.
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1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:
Are the "not great" ticket sales really that far off what Transformers got up till this week?
Nope in fact they seem to almost double those so that is why we should not be sweating it until Thursday afternoon/night when the estimates start coming in.
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18 minutes ago, 21C said:
I mena, he definitely had control over the quality and the visuals of the film. And the reviews all agreed the visuals are a problem, which is being reflected in the marketing material they've been putting out as well.
And yet a lot of those reviewers still are positive on the movie overall. I think the not great ticket sales are more a reflection of the overall DC and star of the movie issues which Andy had no control over.
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3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
My middle name is Harrison because my mom found him so hot. Don't underestimate the man.
That's cool! Not saying there aren't a lot of women who don't love him but I still think the Indiana Jones movies skew male pretty overall.
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3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
Yeah I'm generally a pessimist, but man, I just don't see how people can think of the box office in rosy terms at all. I'm not talking Transformers or Little Mermaid. I think the depth of "blockbuster" types this summer is actually pretty good. It's the fact that movies like Air and No Hard Feelings and Joy Ride, which once would have done 100m likely, can barely crack 50 if they get a miracle anymore. That's a killer to the long-term health of the box office - and to our culture, given these kind of films, the Good Will Huntings and Sixth Senses of the world, are what become iconic in a way blockbuster or indie films often don't.
That said, a rare note of optimisim - if Transformers could accelerate this week like it did, I certainly think Indy isn't dead yet. The audience for that movie is like 60 year old white women, needless to say they aren't scarfing up advanced tickets at MCU fanboy like levels. Crystal Skull was MUCH leggier than people expected at the time.
60 year old white women? Okay. Right age and race maybe but wrong gender i think,
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I love how this movie has not even come out yet and we are in the Andy Mussichetti backlash phase. Most of the reviews I have read and seen say he does a great job and it seems like Gunn and Safran agree and no matter what happens financially with this movie that is not on him because it is stuff he had no control over.
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34 minutes ago, Mulder said:
Nobody's said Oppenheimer will make 300 million. If the summer movie season doesn't have another 300 million grosser after Spider-Verse, well that's on Hollywood. Not on trackers for just...stating facts. You seem to be upset at this thread for not blindly professing everything's fine for Flash and Indy when well...it isn't.
That was not my intention to come off as upset at the trackers on this thread. I think they do a great job with the numbers and data they are given. And I acknowledge that things do not look great for Flash or Indy at this moment. I just feel that some people on this forum doom and gloom up until they cant doom and gloom any more if a movie beats their pessimistic feelings. I know their are other posters on this forum who will back me up on this. I will choose to be optimistic that these movies will beat and overperform what the current data shows until it is not possible for me to do anymore.
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35 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:
There are plenty of people like you who don't buy tickets until just before release, hence why the final week is the strongest. That is accounted for in most of the prognostication that takes place here. There are undeniable buying patterns based on a variety of factors that are almost always the same (+/- 10% let's say). Sure there can be outliers but that usually involves a unique set of circumstances which in all likelihood is not applicable to these films.
I understand all that. I am under no illusion that Flash or Indy are getting within sniffing distance of 100 million opening weekend but in no way do I believe that just because ticket sales are slow right now that there are not enough late buyers and walkups to push Flash above black adam and into the mid 70's or low 80's on a holiday weekend with two holidays and presumed good wom and that if the Indy reviews do continue to get better as we get closer to release that older casual audiences will not get off the fence and prevent those alarming low 60-70 million tracking figures from happening. Otherwise the second half of this summer movie season is going to be pretty depressing because a 3 hour talky R rated movie about the formation of the atomic bomb is not doing 300 million dollars no matter how good it is.
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5 minutes ago, Shawn said:
Oppenheimer is definitely selling well across the board. I think the main cautionary tale as someone who tracked Indy 4 actively 15 years ago is to keep in mind it is probably not going to be as fan-heavy in presales as is sometimes assumed because it is associated tangentially with Star Wars via Ford and Lucasfilm and that general era of blockbuster movies.
That assumption happened within the box office community in 2008 and led to a great deal of doubt that it would get anywhere near the numbers it ended up grossing when the first days' numbers came out and didn't hold a candle to the Star Wars prequels or the Pirates trilogy.
Things are obviously much different today in terms of presale demand, but in relative terms, every type of movie has generally evolved in tandem.
I'm not saying Indy *will* beatthe sagging projections, just that we should be careful in terms of comps. It's hard to weigh it directly against Oppenheimer, which is benefiting from the combo of Nolan fans (a more active and modern audience than Indy's) and a week of premium-only sales where it is designed to draw the bulk of its initial appeal.
End transmission. Gonna try to unwind and enjoy the weekend/grill some food this nice summer evening.
Shawn my biggest question is who are the people buying tickets 5 weeks early for Oppenheimer. Chrstopher Nolan is my favorite active director and I sill have not bought tickets for that nor will I until a few days to release. Mission Impossible is my favorite Action Adventure franchise and I will not be buying tickets for that on Wednesday when tickets go on sale. A few days before release. I think I will be good. I am guessing there are a lot of people out there like me. The Flash probably Thursday or so for a saturday showing. I guess this is my long winded way of saying I think the dogma some around here some have about presales and that the Flash and Indy 5 are either going to bomb or be massive disappointments because presales aren't great is a little frustrating .
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Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | June 30 2023 | Very mixed reviews out of Cannes
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
The newer reviews seem to be leaning towards this being much more of a audience pleaser than CS.