Squire
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Everything posted by Squire
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Could be legit. Any runtime between 2:40 and 3:00 seems reasonable to me, though, as the expected runtime.
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Best Analysis I’ve seen so far of their reliability. They supposedly track movies the way studios do. That said, from what I can tell, they’ve been hit or miss this summer. For example, I’m pretty sure The Flash and Indy 5 were tracking better than Barbie and Oppenheimer at one point. And, until about 2 weeks prior to Barbeinheimer coming out, the numbers for those two movies weren’t great.
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Finally a good Quorum update for Dune. Interest inexplicably went down after the first trailer, but has now started to trend back up. Hope it continues.
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Settle down. I’m not a hater like some posters here. Cough ** Deadpool actor ** cough. I was mainly thinking of the BO performance of Skyfall which made over a billion dollars in 2012 and to a lesser extent Spectre which made $880 million in 2015. Basically, the peak of those other franchises is above the peak of MI (so far). I’d love DR Part 2 to make a billion!
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Yeah, I love the franchise, but it’s never reached the heights of the Fast movies or Bond. Fallout was the highest grossing and just made under $800 million. And Rogue Nation actually made less than Ghost Protocol. The recent movies have always done best when the WOM has had a chance to spread.
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I think it’s best just to ignore people pushing this narrative. We all know box office does not equal quality. Just look at Edge of Tomorrow, which found an audience after failing at the BO. Also, this movie has top 5 metrics this summer. It’s performance is all about the release date.
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Yeah, the franchise has never had a film make a billion dollars, let alone $800 million (Fallout came close). I think WOM was good, but got drowned out by Barbie/Oppenheimer. If it had come out last weekend (or in December) it would probably have been able to make at least $100 million more WW than it will ultimately make.
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Reddit makes sense. They love to watch movies fail. Many users there also seem to think box office = quality, probably because the average age of users is like 15.
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And he hasn’t made a movie that has impressed audiences in years! Snide jokes aside, I don’t get why he feels the need to rag on DR1. There are worse written big budget franchise movies that have come out this year. I’d choose DR1 over Indy 5, Fast X, Flash, Transformers, etc.
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If I were a betting man, I’d say Wonka is more likely to stay put than Dune. I think it has stronger IP recognition at this point and relies less on the cast and more on the general interest in the IP.
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Moving Wonka from Christmas to Memorial Day doesn’t make any sense IMO. It’s winter themed and seems like a perfect fit for a December release. Would seem out of place in the summer.
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I think this is all great in hindsight, but nobody knew SAG was going to strike until it was impossible to move the release date.
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This franchise won’t end with MI8. Paramount will eventually try to reboot it without Cruise someday. Whether that will be successful or not is a good question.
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It will likely be pushed back due to the strikes. Plus, Memorial Day weekend starts on 5/24, so if Dune Part 2 released on that date, it could have at least 3-4 weeks of IMAX.
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Yeah, if it has to move to 2024, I think a Cannes premiere and Memorial Day weekend release is a great fit.
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Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if DV has re-shoots planned for Dune Part 2. Some key scenes in Part 1 were re-shoots DV planned during the editing process. So, if that is the case here, the strikes may force a practical delay of the film beyond the marketing concerns.
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Agreed. I’d love to see it breakout, but considering how other movies have performed this year, I’d be happy with $550-$625M for Part 2. I liked Oppenheimer, but it’s the kind of move that if Nolan’s name wasn’t attached to it, I don’t think it would be doing half as well as it is. He just has a way of bringing people out to the theater.
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I generally agree. I don’t think it will have the rumored 3 hour 15 min runtime, but I think a runtime similar to The Batman is likely.
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Rumor came from an unreliable source and was shot down by a slightly more reliable source, so it’s anyone guess what the runtime is at this point.
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Given the critic and audience reception to this movie, its underperformance has nothing to do with the quality of the movie. Those saying otherwise don’t have an objective metric to point to beyond “but the BO numbers are bad!!” Lots of good movies don’t do well, often for a variety of reasons. This isn’t a franchise in decline in terms of critic and audience scores like Fast and Furious or Transformers.
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Honestly, all this new negative chatter is just trolling and piling on at this point from people who either have an axe to grind with Cruise, the MI franchise, or both. The movie has had a great critic and audience reception based on every objective metric, it just had a bad release date and bad luck that Barbie and Oppy took up all the attention and drowned out WOM, screens, and awareness.
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I have a feeling Aquaman is staying put, unless the movie needs re-shoots. If Dune Part 2 moves, I kind of like the idea of WB re-shuffling its 2024 slate so Dune gets a Cannes premiere and Furiosa’s Memorial Day weekend date. Furiosa can then get a Venice premiere and Fall date.
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What is your evidence for these assertions? Did you or someone else conduct surveys?
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With Kraven being delayed, I hope The Marvels moves to take the 10/6 date. Would be a good fit for it as it wouldn’t have any major competition for October and could grab some IMAX screens.
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Yeah, this always happens. The vast majority of people thought Barbie and Oppenheimer were big risks . . . until it became clear they were going to be smashing successes. Suddenly, everyone ALWAYS knew they were going to be huge. I’m pretty confident the average age of r/boxoffice is like 14.
