Relevation

Garfield could get super big IMO. If it hits a SLOP style zeitgeist and audience reception clicks, watch out for something like $75M OW / $280M DOM / $700M WW

THANKSGIVING reviews are red hot right now (91% RT) Wonder if we see a kind of big surge today ala M3GAN

Does anyone have tracking numbers for The Boy and the Heron? Really curious to see if Miyazaki’s domestic audience has expanded enough for a double digit debut

That’s a 4.33x jump from TUE to WED assuming the $10M is pure WED Encanto jumped 5.03x, so if it keeps that ratio with Encanto’s jumps for the full 5 days, we should be looking at a roughly 22.5-24x IM from TUE to the total 5-days minus EA. Which off $3M TUE, I think would take this a fair bit higher than your $50-55M projection. $3M TUE and a 22.5-24x IM should take this to around $67-72M over 5 days, and with the review embargo and EA boost baked in, I think this could get higher against that Elemental comp. Looking promising to me. EDIT: forgot about discount TUE in regards to the Elemental comp. Maybe take all that math down to $2.2-2.5M TUE and a $50-60M 5-day

Clearly they mean DOM total

Guardians 3 dropped its review embargo the day of EA shows, I don’t really think going a day before is a particularly bad omen for Wish when it’s still a good 5 days out from release and social reactions are waaaaaaaaay better than Marvels

Tickets now on sale for The Boy and the Heron

Might be reading it wrong, but Wish is looking really good no? Almost every comp is comfortably above $3M (minus Hilts) and some are getting up into the high $3M range with not terribly slow pace. Seems good for like $3M flat TUE minus EA which off my averaged Encanto+Strange World 25x IM would take it to a frankly phenomenal $50M FSS and $75M 5-day total.

So based on the general drift I’m seeing, we should expect around $6-7M Thurs and a $36-49M OW?

Wish social reactions seem glowing to the point of being fake. Nothing negative in sight, could see a decent bump tomorrow.

I agree but we probably disagree on what’s 1st, 3rd, and 4th

But it probably is opening at or under $40M Like I’m not even trying to pile on it, but Thursday comps are absolutely crashing to $6M Thurs or lower. IM math from there does not get you above $45M. The writing’s on the wall here imo and that final trailer is not moving the needle.

I think a potential X factor here is that Napoleon will probably get a period of actor promo assuming the SAG strike ends soon, a luxury not granted to KotFM Averaging out the 5-day IMs for House of Gucci (16.92x) and Devotion (14.92x) and this is probably looking at a 15.8-16.0x IM off Tuesday Soooooo if this is running even with KOTFM ($2.6M) then imo that is pretty damn good, should be able to get around a $41-42M 5-day with that

Tickets are now on sale for Napoleon

I agree, but I don’t think TMNT doing relatively decent domestic numbers fueled mostly by legs should’ve come as that much of a surprise considering the strength of the talent behind it and the good window between family titles, especially in comparison to Saw X getting an RT score 40 points better than the peak of the franchise and landing its best total in 14 years Also I do think the Animation Penalty is beginning to ware off as time goes on, as I think the adult audience for high-quality animation content has been growing in recent years especially on social media

Remind me again what was the highest grossing superhero movie domestically this year

My guy Mutant Mayhem is only like the third highest grossing TMNT film domestically and fourth highest worldwide (and one of those is from 1990 unadjusted!) also the answer’s Saw

International presales comps look bad enough to where $65M seems pretty hard imo Also not to diss on Charlie but didn’t he call ATSV at $125M+ INT OW and then it did $88M

$45M OS and $35M DOM for an $80M launch seems feasible imo

This is having a Flash-level collapse in it’s final week of sales, literal free fall Probably opening with like $33-36M atp with potential to go lower

Wish will probably have a larger 3-day OW than The Marvels despite Wish opening on a Wednesday

Gonna be so funny when this inevitably gets crossposted to Reddit (and possibly X too)

Was there supposed to be a matrix here orrrrr