Relevation

It’s probably the EA presence today that’s siphoning sales off TUE. Wouldn’t expect it to be the reviews since yesterday had strong growth. I expect a rebound 100+ tickets sold day tomorrow.

23.6x the T-37 total of Wish and more tickets sold than Napoleon at T-6 $30M+ opening week in the cards?

Was interested to see what The Color Purple was doing but uhhhhh Reverse engineering from M37’s 6x IM guess to get an OW number I feel comfortable about with predicted backloading due to the nonexistent state of the DCEU fandom, maybe something like $4.5-5.3M as a day one guess? (That should take it to around $27-32M OW, I expect a notch above $30M for the final figure but again, backloading and probably decent walkups factored in)

Speaking of WB Christmas 2023 releases (and moving to one that actually looks good) Does anyone have sales updates for The Color Purple? Tickets have been up since Nov 1, it’s got a PIF thing going on inflating the ticket price, and it has really strong social reactions that dropped last night

I agree on The Marvels, it just had too many crippling factors against it and it was so frontloaded that it just doesn’t work as a comp to the comparatively more backloaded DCEU. I think you lucked out with having that Black Adam comp, I think that’ll be the most apt in terms of level of fan rush and reception catalysts.

Did we not have 3 DC movies this year that would be perfectly apt comps instead

We’re really just not gonna get a $50M+ opener post-Freddy’s until March aren’t we

Y’know I’m looking at that Haunted Mansion comp, with the knowledge that your market doesn’t have a Disney skew and neither are quite family level backloaded nor blockbuster level frontloaded, and it kinda makes sense in my mind? +/- $2.5M Thurs with something like a 10x IM to $25M?

I mean yeah it’s not gonna make $1B DOM like Shrek 5 but I think the 8 year wait is good to build up nostalgia for the KFP brand. All 3 installments were well received and are looked back fondly upon, the first 3 films all opened to $50M+ adjusted (the first peaked at $86M for an original animated film!) and it has a good release date as the first all access blockbuster of 2024. Maybe $80M is a little much, but $65-70M is in the cards imo.

Kung Fu Panda 4 is going up into $65M+ territory Although I still wouldn’t rule out Hunger Games or Wish since there’s still good signs for them to go to $40M+

Ah. Point taken Potentially waltzing in an even worse direction but I don’t believe Barbie’s first day was terribly frontloaded (big obv, but not really frontloaded). Would that work?

Do you have a day one Mario comp? That honestly might work imo given they’re both non Disney family films with a fanbase element

Garfield could get super big IMO. If it hits a SLOP style zeitgeist and audience reception clicks, watch out for something like $75M OW / $280M DOM / $700M WW

THANKSGIVING reviews are red hot right now (91% RT) Wonder if we see a kind of big surge today ala M3GAN

Does anyone have tracking numbers for The Boy and the Heron? Really curious to see if Miyazaki’s domestic audience has expanded enough for a double digit debut

That’s a 4.33x jump from TUE to WED assuming the $10M is pure WED Encanto jumped 5.03x, so if it keeps that ratio with Encanto’s jumps for the full 5 days, we should be looking at a roughly 22.5-24x IM from TUE to the total 5-days minus EA. Which off $3M TUE, I think would take this a fair bit higher than your $50-55M projection. $3M TUE and a 22.5-24x IM should take this to around $67-72M over 5 days, and with the review embargo and EA boost baked in, I think this could get higher against that Elemental comp. Looking promising to me. EDIT: forgot about discount TUE in regards to the Elemental comp. Maybe take all that math down to $2.2-2.5M TUE and a $50-60M 5-day

Clearly they mean DOM total

Guardians 3 dropped its review embargo the day of EA shows, I don’t really think going a day before is a particularly bad omen for Wish when it’s still a good 5 days out from release and social reactions are waaaaaaaaay better than Marvels

Tickets now on sale for The Boy and the Heron

Might be reading it wrong, but Wish is looking really good no? Almost every comp is comfortably above $3M (minus Hilts) and some are getting up into the high $3M range with not terribly slow pace. Seems good for like $3M flat TUE minus EA which off my averaged Encanto+Strange World 25x IM would take it to a frankly phenomenal $50M FSS and $75M 5-day total.

So based on the general drift I’m seeing, we should expect around $6-7M Thurs and a $36-49M OW?

Wish social reactions seem glowing to the point of being fake. Nothing negative in sight, could see a decent bump tomorrow.

I agree but we probably disagree on what’s 1st, 3rd, and 4th

But it probably is opening at or under $40M Like I’m not even trying to pile on it, but Thursday comps are absolutely crashing to $6M Thurs or lower. IM math from there does not get you above $45M. The writing’s on the wall here imo and that final trailer is not moving the needle.

I think a potential X factor here is that Napoleon will probably get a period of actor promo assuming the SAG strike ends soon, a luxury not granted to KotFM Averaging out the 5-day IMs for House of Gucci (16.92x) and Devotion (14.92x) and this is probably looking at a 15.8-16.0x IM off Tuesday Soooooo if this is running even with KOTFM ($2.6M) then imo that is pretty damn good, should be able to get around a $41-42M 5-day with that