Relevation

Since it's a longer sales window, and from what I can see it's just PLFs, I would think Oppenheimer could actually work as a comp here if you have it. Otherwise I'd also throw out Dune since it was also a decently long-ish window and had EA, plus major PLF skew.

PLF tickets are now on sale for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Oh, and EA screenings on the 8th

Dungeons & Dragons fell off over 63% against Super Mario Bros despite it having an A- CS, the Easter holiday cushion, and Mario being a PG family film. Twisters’ drop against DP&W will undoubtedly be notably worse and could eclipse 65-70% if the movie isn’t super good

Nah trust the process $35M TFRI and the Kong walkups go crazy, $100M OW /hj

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 03/28/24 Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire - 187 tickets sold COMPS Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire 0.51x of Dune: Part Two ($4.75M) 0.55x of Bob Marley: One Love ($7.68M) 1.15x of Madame Web ($6.98M) 1.53x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($7.20M) 1.78x of Kung Fu Panda 4 ($6.77M) 4.07x of The Beekeeper ($9.76M) AVERAGE: $7.19M Really wasn't sure what to run with since I didn't have a super walkup-heavy GA blockbuster to comp with yet, so I threw in basically all my decent sized walkup heavy comps plus Dune for good measure. Did notice a massive skew towards my AMC compared to the Emagine theater I track (157 at AMC, but only 30 at Emagine), which was most closely matched with KFP4 (85 at AMC, 20 at Emagine). Dune is kinda a bad comp here since it skewed heavily in the opposite direction due to my Emagine having a 70mm screen, so the average without it is $7.68M. Overall, looks like it sold decently here.

GxK could hit 75 and that's still probably only half of IO2's opening, clearing Deadpool is just a lol

Ran a quick check for OD Tuesday at my two theaters out of curiosity TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 03/26/24 Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey 2 - 17 tickets sold COMPS Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey 2 1.00x of Imaginary ($725K) 0.18x of Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To The Hashira Training ($319K) 0.11x of Madame Web ($635K) AVERAGE: $560K

@keysersoze123 is Civil War doing anything notable in MTC1 yet? Was thinking it could approach a $25-30M OW before presales started, interested if sales are reflecting that

Gonna start posting T-1 tracking from my two theater personal record now that I have a decent selection of comps TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) March 21, 2024 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 122 tickets sold Immaculate - 13 tickets sold COMPS: Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire 2.26x of Argylle ($3.84M) 0.36x of Bob Marley: One Love ($5.01M) 0.75x of Madame Web ($4.50M) Average: $4.45M Immaculate 0.36x of Cabrini ($0.18M) 0.76x of Imaginary ($0.55M) Average: $0.37M

Gonna mention that The Fall Guy also has an SXSW premiere ongoing right now with reactions dropping tonight, so it could see a nice bump later in the day So knowing that I think that comp for The Fall Guy could clear $3M+ by the end of the day, and it’s probably gonna go higher with the longer window and likely much stronger walkups

What about The Super Mario Bros. Movie? That also skewed very young overall but it had super broad appeal with teenagers and parents like what Inside Out 2 will probably have, plus it was starting and finishing huge the whole time so it wouldn’t be useless the first few days like a KFP4 or Minions 2 comp would be.

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-kung-fu-panda-4-previews-1235932634/ ‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ Makes $3.8 Million in Previews

If @M37 is right about KFP4 going to something like a 14-15x IM, is the $30M range not too low for how it’s doing in previews? Like KFP4 will probably have pretty good walkups because preview pace has been a bit slow and it’s a Uni animated film, so if we assume it goes to around $3M+ in comps… would that not take it to $40M+ for the weekend? Maybe even $50-60M+ if it gets closer to $4M? If this is going for a big IM then I think the current sales so far are good enough to warrant upping the forecasts here.

And evidently, that is not Argylle Gotta say I’m not terribly surprised, it looked really bad (Ghosted tier) But damn, sales pace could really hit a wall near the end

I agree Dune probably starts around $8-8.5M, I just expect it to have weaker pace as is the case with recent fan driven blockbusters and a lower IM more in line with something like Songbirds and Snakes than the first Dune. Drops to around $7M actual, $53-56M OW Kung Fu Panda 4 I’m very high on, I think it’s got the starved family market, big nostalgia push, and huge hype to rocket to massive numbers - expecting a $7-8M preview start there which mostly holds the entire time, and then a Sonic 2 tier IM takes it to an $83-87M OW

Gonna try to start posting tracking numbers here from two of my local MN theaters this year T-1 PREVIEW NUMBERS - MN AREA (Jan 11) Mean Girls - 151 The Beekeeper - 49 The Book of Clarence - 10 Soul (only one theater / Friday) - 1 No comps yet but hopefully I can build a collection throughout the year

Is your Y button broken, or

Well, I do think that you’re right in that 9 years is on the shorter end of what would be ideal for a nostalgia sequel, but I think Inside Out 2 has unique advantages here that potentially shore up what could’ve been lost with more recency - I think the 9 year gap could have a potentially beneficial impact for Inside Out 2 specifically, in the sense that the child audience for the first film was probably in the 5-9 age range, so a 9 year gap and those kids watching the first in theaters are now like 14-18…. right in the range where they’d likely resonate more with the sequel’s focus on mid-teenage anxiety and mental health, therein potentially getting them more inclined to see it and opening up a whole new demographic for IO2 that the first would’ve had a harder time clicking with- teenagers. So the effect of slight recency here in my opinion is a boon for this, as it makes it much easier for the film to click in marketing with nostalgic teenagers and get more people out to the theater. - and the second reason is unique to Inside Out 2 in relation to the first, in that it has Disney+. Now, in most cases the service has not helped any of Disney’s recent output, but in this case I think it could really help it construct a new audience who might not have watched the first in theaters but saw the first on Disney+ and fell in love with it, now excited to see the second in theaters. Almost like a mini Spider-Verse effect, I think this is a case of streaming organically building a new audience of those who love Inside Out, allowing the sequel to reap theatrical benefits that otherwise wouldn’t have been there, and were not there for other Pixar legacy sequels. Spacing between sequels is a finicky balancing act, but I think 9 years for IO2 is helpful to both establish a large nostalgic legion of teenagers who are uniquely positioned to really resonate with IO2’s messaging, and it has the extra advantage of much more new fans being created by the proliferation of Disney+ in a way that the confluence of those two incoming fanbases alongside all the factors I elaborated on could explode into some mighty impressive box office figures.

Yeah - People love the first Inside Out, it’s 9 years out putting it in a good time space for a big nostalgia boost - Pixar nostalgia direct sequels kinda have a perfect track record as of late (Toy Story 3, Finding Dory, Incredibles 2, Toy Story 4) - The Pixar brand is still very strong theatrically (they launched an original fantasy romcom to global numbers bigger than 6/8 superhero movies last year, one dud with a whole host of unique handicaps is not emblematic of an entire brand’s strength) - I expect it to at least get very good audience reception with its touching on mental health and anxiety likely resonating big time with audiences and crucially with Gen Z and the 18-24 demographic, a major fueler of recent young skewing breakouts (Mario, The Rise of Gru, Barbie) - It’s in a wide open June with no other strong 4 quadrant blockbusters, and I expect it to have good legs - The anticipation and hype is very big, it launched to the biggest 24hr trailer views for a Disney animated film ever So yeah, all those factors combined are why I’m pencilling in a prediction of $135M OW / $540M DOM (4x legs) / $1.175B WW and by a significant margin the biggest movie of 2024

DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS 2024 1. Inside Out 2 - $540M 2. Joker: Folie á Deux - $385M 3. Despicable Me 4 - $315M 4. Deadpool 3 - $305M 5. The Garfield Movie - $280M 6. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 - $235M 7. Beetlejuice 2 - $230M 8. Kung Fu Panda 4 - $212M 9. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 2 - $200M 10. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - $166M 11. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 - $165M 12. Venom 3 - $161M 13. Bad Boys 4 - $150M 14. Dune: Part Two - $145M 15. The Karate Kid - $144M 16. Wicked: Part One - $140M 17. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire - $135M 18. A Quiet Place: Day One - $130M 19. Gladiator 2 - $129M 20. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga - $120M 21. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim - $110M 22. Mufasa: The Lion King - $108M 23. Transformers One - $105M 24. Mean Girls - $101M 25. Twisters / The Fall Guy / Smile 2 (TIE) - $100M Paddington in Peru / IF (TIE) - $96M Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $87M Cabrini - $90M Alien: Romulus - $70M Nosferatu - $67M Challengers / Civil War (TIE) - $60M Mickey 17 - $50M JUST IN CASE (undated movies that could release in 2024, my predictions if they do) The Passion of the Christ: Resurrection - $385M Michael Jackson biopic - $345M Zootopia 2 - $305M The Secret Life of Pets 3 - $170M Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs and Reyes - $135M The Apprentice - $90M Mortal Kombat 2 - $80M Untitled original Walt Disney Animation Studios film / Tron: Ares (TIE) - $78M Juror #2 - $70M

Pulling out the PAW Patrol comp one last time MTC1 Friday(T-1) Paw Patrol 2 - 52210/465001 652465.64 3134 shows Finished slightly better than where it was going 2 days ago with a final comp of 4.782x PAW Patrol or a MON for TCP of $32.65M with a big asterisk as Color Purple is probably skewing waaaaay more towards MTC-1 than the normal family film. Since I can actually adjust for PSM and it had a holiday effect, also decided to yank out the mid-day Sunday numbers at MTC-1 for Mario Mario MTC1 Sun - 218066/1645339 3047516.12 9922 shows This is actually ahead which is extremely impressive given Mario had a $34.57M SUN, and also Mario had a pretty low PSM at MTC-1 on Easter Sunday specifically, and if I pull up the PSM chart and commentary @M37 did last week... Title Day PSM ($/T) Tix BO$ Wonka Sat $71.0 197,433 $14.03 Mario (Good) Fri $69.3 790,521 $54.80 Mario Sat $66.8 853,769 $56.99 GOTG3 Sun $66.5 472,658 $31.43 Barbie Sun $64.0 682,893 $43.71 AMWQ Sun $63.7 404,697 $25.77 Mario Wed $63.7 498,000 $31.70 Mermaid Sat $63.6 473,426 $30.12 Mario (East) Sun $62.4 554,006 $34.57 Marvels Sat $57.9 263,523 $15.26 Oppy Sun $57.3 404,822 $23.19 None are ideal, but two in particular I would have had my eye on without knowing any numbers - Barbie Sun and Mermaid Sat - are nearly identical. There's also solid clustering overall, with the high and low outliers explainable by nature of respective films, so that's good enough for me to use that ~$64/tix as the baseline, though it may not work out perfectly due the nuance of Xmas day itself or this film in particular, should be in play. Using $63.5-64 PSM as the working number here as per the Mermaid and Barbie comps, that's actually a 17-26% bump on Mario's PSM for Easter Sunday, so the T-1ish comps for TCP against Mario SUN would be $39.579M unadjusted and an insane $46.307-49.870M adjusted. Now, that just sounds wrong on almost every level and the crux of the issue in my opinion is that TCP will not have the borderline superhuman walkups that Mario was able to attain, especially not to the extent where it would be pushing a $40M+ OD. If I instead used Key's 375K-400K projected finish and comped that to Mario SUN's finish of 554K, I get a much more reasonable sounding $23.40-24.96M unadjusted and $27.38-31.45M adjusted. That still sounds really high, but at least the unadjusted comp is "within realistic probability" high rather than the wacky fantasy scenario those pre-walkup $40M+ comps suggested. Aaaand if I just took the $63.5-64 PSM and directly multiplied it by that projected 375-400K finish, then you're talking an OD of $23.81-25.60M which is pretty close to my unadjusted Mario SUN comp. Those two comps being in the same place makes me feel relatively comfortable projecting a roughly $23-25M opening day for The Color Purple (now of course, maybe I'm using comps which are too high or I'm extrapolating too much off an MTC that is going to overindex here. ORRRR maybe I should put more stock in those higher $27M+ comps and I'm just not due to expectation management) which would be an absolutely euphoric result for something I wasn't even confident would make $20M total DOM at the start of the year. $100M+ opening week and $200M+ total finish seems on the horizon.

https://tenor.com/view/basketball-grizzly-bear-ice-bear-panda-bear-we-bare-bears-gif-16701541

The actuals did in fact, throw me for a curveball

Barbie + Hunger Games + Wonka and that should be pretty good bandwidth