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Dune actuals for last weekend summed up $46,215,424 ( -44% from last weekend) Domestic total so far: $157,027,668

Exactly, people should already know they just need to repeat Sydney and Glen as the main couple again and this will perfectly work like a sequel. Sequels never fit totally for romcoms

KFP4: 58.3 (+100K) Dune: 12.2M (-100k) + 19.6M (-200K) + 14.4M (+500K) = 46.2M (-44% OW)

Not much KFP4: 58.3 (+100K) Dune: 12.2M (-100k) + 19.6M (-200K) + 14.4M (+500K) = 46.2M (-44% OW)

really good increase and matches perfectly @TheFlatLannister tracking in Florida as well. it seems we’re going to have a third hit in March!!!! Really good news for theaters!!!!!

a good thing about @TheFlatLannister is that his projections to OD have been on point (or missing for like 100k/200k). Florida/Orlando has been proving it is a really good sample to predict BO OD. The consistency has been insane.

I mean, nowadays “when” you lift a review embargo is not as much important as it was in the past. With social networks you’ll know the critics thoughts even if the embargo is lifted on the day the move is released. And your friends opinions matter way more than critics reviews. When Dune 2 had its review embargo lifted everyone was expecting wow now pre sales will go crazy… and they didn’t. Then the movie was as released, GA started recommending it to their friends and wow Saturday walk ups was insane to a movie everyone was already considering front loaded. Venom 3 had 30% on Rotten tomatoes but 860M at the BO with 2.8x legs. Look at One Love, they lifted their embargo 7 days in advance just to get 35% on RT (which eventually increased to ~40%). Meanwhile, “Across the Spider-Verse” (96%), “Avatar Way of Water” (90%) and Kung Fu Panda 4 (81% debut) had their review embargo lifted the day before their first public previews. So all things considered, studios are just choosing to play safe, you don’t need to risk your movie pre sales, because at the end of the day audience has the final word. Even if your movie has insane pre sales like TCP (88% on RT) due to critics positive reviews, it will eventually tank/flop if audience don’t like it, it doesn’t matter how good critics reception is.

I’m so happy to see this, the three major March releases exceeding even the best expectations, this is all what theaters were dreaming of!!!! And there’s still GxK in the transitional week to April. Hope this great March trend can keep up over the summer season 💚

This matches perfectly @TheFlatLannister daily tracking. It’s doing pretty well in NY AMC theaters as well, heading to a better opening OD than Ghostbusters Afterlife. I am hopping that more and more movies can over preform this year. Theaters are really neeeding this after that Jan/Fev, Feb had a crazy 40% drop from Feb 2023.

So among Western pure romcoms (not including dramedy movies like Crazy Rich Asians or Silver Linings Playbook) Anyone But You is the biggest one in 14 years, since Valentine’s Day $217M (2010); top 25 of all times; and the 9th biggest Sony’s pure romcom ever (yeah not many people seem to remember but, before Marvel, Sony and Disney dominated the romcom genre with heavy hitters like “Hitch” and “My Best Friend's Wedding” (produced by Sony) or “Pretty Woman” and “The Proposal” (produced by Disney))

from those you mentioned, the only one where it was not released yet is Japan.

It seems Dune will keep those seventeen 70mm IMAX halls (like Lincoln Square, Universal, Chinese Theater etc) for many weeks, even when GxK is out. It makes sense since none of the coming movies will be available in IMAX 70mm format.

Indeed, a 13% increase from March 2023 hope movies can keep over performing, theaters are urgently needing this.

agreed!

yeah as far as I know Civil War will take over IMAX screens until The Fall Guy, unless it underperforms heavily. In 10 days, Ghostbusters will take a part of IMAX screens and every other PLF. And in 17 days, Dune remaining IMAX screens will be taken over by GxK (the only exception seems to be the seventeen 70mm IMAX halls).

who said 65M+ was WB (to Deadline)… “Plus, I repeatedly said 80M was the best case scenario (it made 82.5) when many people were still arguing the case scenario was 90M. But you know we shouldn’t be into chasing other people past projections. Sometimes you’re closer to the actual box office, some times you don’t. That’s ok. Projecting a box office is not seeing into the future.”

the point is: Dune has only had good days at the box office since it was released. The “chance to bring it down” you mentioned only exists if you agree with me about some overestimates. Plus, I repeatedly said 80M was the best case scenario (it made 82.5) when many people were still arguing the case scenario was 90M. But you know we shouldn’t be into chasing other people projections, trackers here deserve every praise for doing this for pure love. Sometimes you’re closer to the actual box office, some times you don’t. That’s ok. Projecting a box office is not seeing into the future.

“How are we somehow making a clear win sound like a flop?” Answer: because some people keep setting others for deception/disappointment when they keep the 300M+/1bi talk! And I’m not talking specifically about anyone on this forum. Many people here follow other “trackers”/“insiders”/“experts”/etc on social networks who know that keeping the 300M/1bi talk will make them get more followers. They keep the comparison to Oppenheimer box office, but they (maybe intentionally) forget mentioning the fact that Dune 2 first week made ~17M less than Oppenheimer domestically (and Oppenheimer ended up getting 329M). More importantly, Oppenheimer first week made ~17M more than Dune 2 having only IMAX, while every Dolby Cinema was taken over by Barbie, and other PLFs were never an Oppenheimer exclusive. Whereas Dune 2 had every single IMAX and every other PLF but still made 17M less than Oppenheimer. So Dune BO relies on PLFs way more than Oppenheimer, and in 10 days Dune will lose most of its PLFs to Ghostbusters. Plus Oppenheimer had the benefits of summer season, something that Dune 2 doesn’t have. Conclusion from these facts is pretty easy to get, it’s unpopular though. People should be celebrating Dune to make 200M (2x its 2021 BO), but instead they are sorry because they believed in the 300M fantasy.

Will challengers have a conventional wide release (3k+ locations)? It seems Civil War will take a wide release I guess cuz it’ll take over IMAX screens.

Interesting

yeah politics plays an import role for academy voters right now, sometimes they bow down (like when they nominated black Panther for best picture) but sometimes they are just stubborn (like Gosling nomination but no Margot Robbie one)

Don’t get me wrong, your second paragraph says exactly what I think. About this we don’t disagree (except for “It is never about campaign”, for most of categories it’s all about marketing campaigns, especially in the most technical categories, where you have to make private sessions with voters to explain the development/process etc). This is why I added. ”The best movie with the best award campaign”. Movies like Oppenheimer, Dune Part Two and Killer of the Flower Moon (the best one IMO) are cinematic achievements. You can’t describe any one of them as far better or clearly better than the other ones. You of course will always have your best one though. So when you achieve cinema highest level, what makes the difference is how good your your award campaign is. It’s way less romantic than people think, not all voters even watch all movies, (yeah you read it right) before the short lists come out there are thousands of movies from all around the world to be watched. About your first paragraph we disagree because there are some facts, which movie had the most Screening debates? Oppenheimer. Which movie had the most score live concerts? Oppenheimer. (In some case the second is not even Barbie but instead Maestro (this may sound weird ikr). Regarding Netflix, everyone knows the voters still have prejudice against Netflix movies, plus they don’t have the box office numbers to back their award campaigns. By the way, what The Academy did with The Irish Man was just atrocious, prejudice was clearer than ever. And yeah they really did a really big award campaign, but prejudice speaks louder sometimes.

agreed I mentioned Amy Winehouse biopic, but it’s only coming out in May.

In fact it’s a pretty common thing nowadays movies getting smaller budgets due to tax credits. The Marvels and The Flash without tax credits would have cost 270 freaking million… Plus watching Madame Web (as I did) you get even surprised it could really have cost more than 80M before tax credit lol

sorry lol I took it seriously because there’re some people seriously saying the same thing about April 😅 in this case I’m a bit more optimistic specially with Civil War. I watched the trailer on a Dune screening in an IMAX dual laser location and bro it looks insane, plus 1:85 aspect ratio.