Nope. If this is the line-up than Leo takes it. His competitiors are all past winners. They wouldn`t put him in if they didn`t want to award him. Not to mention that the role is baity as fuck. A bone fide movie star takes a super risky, bold role that many would think twice before signing for, has a monologue that is awards wet dream, is a past nominee so not a one-hit wonder,etc. I get that people are confused because of SAG situation but that wasn`t a snub. They haven`t received the screeners which means they haven`t seen him.
I think those 4 past winners will be in the Oscar line-up with 5th spot going to one of Leo, Henry, Waltz, SLJ (apparently he`s campaigning), Redmayne.
Also, the race is shaping up to award several past winners (Bigelow? DDL? Spielberg? Some BSAactor?) so someone has to be first time winner.