MovieMan89

Thanks, added it. 2015 had some absolutely killer multis for critically acclaimed blockbusters.

Because I have nothing better to do today: List of all Friday opening big budget movie multis that got RT scores over 80% from 2015-present 2015: The Revenant - 4.57x The Martian - 4.22x Inside Out - 3.95x The Force Awakens - 3.78x Mission Impossible Rogue Nation - 3.55x Max Max: Fury Road - 3.4x Ant-Man - 3.15x Cinderella - 3x 2016: Zootopia - 4.55x Finding Dory - 3.6x Jungle Book - 3.54x Kung Fu Panda 3 - 3.49x Rogue One - 3.43x Deadpool - 2.75x Doctor Strange - 2.72x Star Trek Beyond - 2.68x Civil War - 2.28x 2017: Wonder Woman - 4x Dunkirk - 3.76x Spiderman Homecoming - 2.85x Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 2.66x War for the Planet of the Apes - 2.63x Logan - 2.58x Thor: Ragnarok: ??? Once again, CW remains the major outlier in these stats.

Yet Civil War and Logan are the only two big budget movies from the last few years I can think of with great critical acclaim and sub 2.6x multis (and Logan just barely). Which are both CBM's, so I'm not saying it's impossible TR goes below that mark in spite of the critical reception. I just don't think it's inaccurate at all to say the odds are against it.

Interesting how we have so many mammoth blockbusters releasing next May and June and not a single teaser or anything for any of them yet. I guess we're starting to see how so much tentpole oversaturation is affecting marketing. Studios have a much smaller time window to market in since there is becoming far less space between the huge releases.

So then you're telling me the smaller fanbase and therefore opening of a Thor film vs that of an Iron Man/Captain America team up film shouldn't be expected to make a difference in frontloading?

Then why do the vast majority of OWs over 140m+ have such poor or mediocre multis? Get down to the 135m mark or so and multis start looking much healthier on average.

But who's saying it won't be frontloaded though? Would a 2.6x multi still not be frontloaded for a film with glowing critical and early audience score reception? If it didn't have typical MCU sequel frontloading, I'd be discussing higher than 2.7x, that's for sure. Also OW size definitely plays a factor in frontloading. Hard to compare a 122m OW with a 179m one. Who's to say CW wouldn't have hit 2.5x+ with TR's OW?

As far as the first half of November, I'm guessing the highest weekday # would be Skyfall's first Monday (11m).

And yet you have been making a pretty clear declaration in this thread that TR is very frontloaded based on its "shit" Monday hold.

Because it is an outlier in the franchise, as I've illustrated extensively. Why base the odds around an outlier?

One thing about Civil War too is that the plot was confusing without having seen like 3-4 of the prior MCU films. Whereas most of what someone is losing in Ragnarok by not having seen certain other MCU films is some of the humor. The plot can be followed pretty easily regardless.

Based on every MCU sequel not named Civil War, it absolutely matters in terms of the multi...

But you're ignoring how much critical/user reception aligns with those multis. DH1 is really the only case there where it doesn't.

The problem there is the fact that most of the MCU sequels have been some of the more poorly received movies in the franchise. If you divide MCU by critical and user score acclaim, the average multis look like this: Good/great reception Guadians of the Galaxy - 3.54x Iron Man -3.25x The Avengers - 3x Spiderman Homecoming - 2.85x The Winter Soldier - 2.73x Doctor Strange - 2.73x Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 2.66x Civil War - 2.28x Average: 2.88x Decent reception: Ant-Man - 3.15x Thor - 2.78x Captain America: The First Avenger - 2.7x Iron Man 3 - 2.35x Average: 2.74x Mixed/poor reception: The Incredible Hulk - 2.45x Iron Man 2 - 2.43x Thor The Dark World - 2.43x Avengers Age of Ultron - 2.4x Average: 2.43x CW and Ant-Man are really the only outliers in terms of reception and multis in the franchise, CW having a much worse multi than its reception should have indicated, and Ant-Man having much better.

The only thing I can see realistically hurting TR's multi besides JL is somewhat of a need to have seen the first two films, both of which are some of the lesser successful MCU films. But even then, the majority of the humor and plot would still work if you haven't seen the prior two.

I'm currently predicting a multi between 2.65-2.7x, i.e. below the MCU average, and that's getting "loonie?" Brad over at BOM seems to be thinking it will hit 2.8x or so in his weekend write up. Better throw him in the asylum! The fact is, that CW is the one and only outlier in terms of critically acclaimed MCU films that missed that 2.65x mark. Again, the odds are far more in favor for Thor clearing 2.6x with ease than going lower than that.

It dropped 3.7% more than DS with a way bigger Sunday gross. That hardly qualifies as a "shit" hold considering that movie cleared a 2.7x multi. Weren't you waging a similar argument about SMH's frontloadedness after the OW and that it wasn't getting more than 2.5x? It seems like you are always eager to hope for the worst with MCU...

That seems like kind of an odd comparison though. Wouldn't previews as a percentage of OW be a lot better indicator of front-loadedness? When it comes to that TR was right on par with the likes of GotG2, Cap 2, DS, and Ant-Man which were all around 11-12% of the OW, opposed to CW's 14%. Granted SMH had a similar share as CW and went on to a way better multi obviously, so that's not a perfect indicator, but still bodes well for TR for now.

All I'm saying is Civil War is really the only film in the whole MCU you could argue that reception was very positive, yet the multi failed to hit that 2.65x threshold. So the odds seem highly in favor of TR hitting it to me. And TR has already behaved much less frontloaded than CW.

How else do you explain the Sat/Sun holds though? All of the MCU films that have held on a comparable level on their first Sat/Sun's have had 2.65x+ multis. Lots of people may have argued something like CW had great WOM and would get a good multi, but when you get down to it the first Sat/Sun holds were already showing that might not be the case.

I don't think below the MCU average multi should be considered a "best case" for an MCU film that looks to be garnering top tier early WOM. JL is the biggest argument against TR hitting 2.7x, imo. The competition DS faced last November was possibly a little stronger than this year's. Beasts+Moana+Trolls combine for a higher cume than JL+Coco likely will. Granted, none of those were quite as direct of competition as a fellow CBM, but they were all still competition for a big demo of DS's. So I think the impact of JL on TR could be being overestimated. Two 330m+ CBMs could certainly coexist in this month given how relatively weak all the other competition is.

Could be underestimating JL's effect on it, but I have a feeling TR could end up finishing within like 5m of SMH both DOM and OS. Hope it can beat it DOM, even if it's by 1m. Incidentally, 335 DOM and 550 OS is right around where I'm expecting JL to land too. Would be kind of funny to see all three perform nearly identically both DOM and OS.

70% for DS vs 74% for TR. Pretty good consider TR's Sunday gross was 50% higher than DS's.

Well, only a matter of time now before Disney envelops all the studios...and I'm only half joking with that statement.

I have to admit, the trailers for this have gotten huge reactions from the audience on multiple occasions I've seen them in the theater. Tons of laughter. Starting to wonder if this could be a big breakout and do something like 200+ (which incidentally is about what the first one adjusts to). I know it has TLJ looming over it, but the rest of the Xmas releases don't look very appealing. Could be the vast majority's second choice over the holidays.