Bluebomb
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Everything posted by Bluebomb
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IMAX - 80-90% fullRegular - About 60-100% full at peak times.I want to see how many theaters are showing this in 2D first before making a prediction.
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Forgot to mention that these admissions only cover 80% of movie theaters in HK. Some theater chains do not report their admissions.
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Admissions are inaccurate. Usually they are very accurate but once in a while, they will have a very strange and off weekend. I remember when Harry Potter Deathly Hallows Part 1 came out, they said Narnia: Dawn Treader fell 90% in admissions. It never happened.
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I think it will make about 5-6m. Most superhero movies do well on opening weekend then have weak legs. To The Avengers benefit, it has little competition in its 2nd weekend. 3rd weekend will see Dark Shadows and Fairy Tale Killer come out but I think both will disappoint for some reason.
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Nice hold by Titanic. Battleship had a nice bump. Buff is doing much better than last week. 407 Dark Flight is doing OK. Good for A Simple Life. The Avengers has looked great in IMAX. Showtimes are 80-90% full.
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I expect at least a 2m from The Avengers opening weekend. 2.5m is my guess right now but it might rake in 3m if demand is very strong. I need to see how many theaters are scheduling The Avengers in 2D here first before making a final prediction. If it gets a lot of 2D screens in addition to its 3D screens, I will up my prediction.And yeah I am.
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Madagascar should do well in Latin America but it'll do poor in Asia like last time. Only 12/30 markets in Europe listed on Madagascar's release dates page show Madagascar 3 coming out in June. The rest come out in July or later and after Ice Age 4. Even worse, big markets like Germany and UK are showing this in October, a long time away from the rest of the world. Sure, it'll come in the midst of holidays but I don't think the long delay in those 2 territories will help.
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So Battleship doesn't sink as low as most of us thought. Another week of screwy admissions. Battleship will pass 1.9m and could possibly steam past 2m this weekend. Nice surprise to see 407 Dark Flight claim 2nd place. Frankly, Hollywood should be ashamed of its horror films losing to a Thai movie playing in only half of Hong Kong's theaters. As for 407 Dark Flight, it might capture $150,000 this weekend. Not bad for Titanic. This will come close to 1.5m after Sunday. Love in the Buff had a better hold after last week's post-holiday tumble. It'll pass 3.5m this weekend and might overtake A Simple Life as the biggest local film of the year. Not a good enough start for Machine Gun Preacher. It'll miss $100,000. Possible 4-day total could be just $80,000. A Simple Life surged after winning the major awards at the HK Film Awards last Sunday. 3.5m will be achieved this weekend. The Hunger Games rebounded after a heavy dip last weekend. It'll lock in 2.5m this weekend. Mirror Mirror continues to bleed. It might barely hit 1.1m and then disappear. Trainwreck performance for Lives in Flames. $40,000 might not even happen. Buff and Titanic had good holds. Battleship looks to be holding better. Decent for 407 Dark Flight. Machine Gun Preacher isn't doing great.
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I didn't like it. I thought it was a creative episode but I didn't laugh once. Community's been hit or miss this season.
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I feel like Madagascar 3's the sequel that no one really cares for. I see Ice Age doing well but Madagascar suffering as a consequence. Brave I think will do OK overseas based on the strength of the Pixar brand.KFP2 did well on the strength of the Asian markets alone. Madagascar does have the 3D bump this time but it is going up against Ice Age which is insanely popular in Europe. Will Madagascar be able to get over that big hump? I'm not so sure. Going up against another popular franchise in the same area and in the same season doesn't seem like good news. Ice Age is the bigger of the two so I expect Ice Age to crush Madagascar's gross in Europe and dominate with kids there.
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Ice Age: Continental Drift OS Thread ($624M)
Bluebomb replied to Fake's topic in International Box Office
WoTT decreased because of 2 factors: increased competition and poor WOM about Clash's 3D. CoTT was considered the prime film of the Easter holidays while WoTT had to deal with The Hunger Games, Titanic and local films internationally like Intouchables this time around. Also, Clash's negative press about its 3D caused viewers to re-think watching WoTT in 3D and given that a lot of countries only show 3D movies in 3D and not 2D, many skipped out on WoTT.Ice Age 4 is a different animal altogether. It's considered to be the prime choice for kids during the summer holidays and high potential markets like Russia and China will play a huge role in its increase OS. Add in the emerging markets and I see a hefty increase for the fourth installment of the Ice Age series. -
Well, looks like admissions are a problem again. Battleship led all releases with $79,229 (-61.3% drop) on Thursday and it's well out in front of all other movies. Battleship will repeat as the top choice this weekend. Rest of the top 10 to come.
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You're right, my mistake. I changed it.
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I wonder if this will get a 2D release in markets where movies are usually shown in 3D only. Did Transformers 3 get a 2D release everywhere?
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Nah, it won't drop more than 80%. More like 75%.All that's left now is to see how badly it did in gross.
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I am floored. I thought Battleship would get it into the low 70's for the day. That's just plain ugly. 86% drop. Titanic had a good hold. Love in the Buff did OK. Weak for 407 Dark Flight. Machine Gun Preacher is not making $80,000 this weekend. Yikes. Solid for Titanic. Buff is coming back. Battleship continues to slide into oblivion. 407 Dark Flight did small numbers. Respectable for A Dangerous Method with only a limited release.
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That is pretty good then, right?
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More on the The Grand Master; this has been a film which has been sidelined for a year. To get a prime release date near Christmas shows the confidence that the studio has with this movie. If this gets a Cantonese dub, this could be one of the biggest movies in the winter. Meanwhile, The Hobbit won't be affected too much by this development.Twilight Breaking Dawn Part 2 might though. If they are aiming for another Christmas release with the last film, they are putting themselves in the line of fire with The Hobbit, Grand Master and Life of Pi all coming out.
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ting72, I e-mailed HK MPIA about inflation grosses but so far no response yet.Battleship drops to #3 with Thursday midnights factored out.
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The date didn't match up with the data from the 2nd link so I went further back and found out its admissions are 2,695 first weekend!
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My point is that generally movies of this nature drop harder than most other films. Their demand is spent on the first weekend.
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I looked at the 2nd link and it's been released in the Italian part of Switzerland and at #1. Do you know what it's starting admissions are?
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Just wondering, how does one track Switzerland's box office since they are split up into 3 different parts?
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A bit of both. I think everyone just got super excited when early numbers came out for Battleship INTL and started to spin and make it look bad when its "not as good but still good" numbers rolled in. But the legs look to be pretty awful. It's understandable for this type of movie though. Transformers 3 fell more than 60% here in its 2nd weekend with no real big competition.