stuart360

I know its only estimates and all that but how can a film gross 2.35bil WW and 'only' mkae 600mil profit?. How do 200mil and 300mil films that often make less than a bill WW make a profit?. Hell we had had like 200mil budget films make 400-500mil WW and still get sequels. I mean we have had rom coms wil 80,90,100mil budgets lol, how the hell do they even get greenlit?. Something sounds fishy to me. Having said that, the budgets for 3, 4, and 5 will probably be way lower than 400mil (especially 3 and 4 as they are already partly made). All 5 films could easily make 2-3bil profit, which still sounds very low for a franchise that could be around 10bil WW after the 5th film. I'm sure everyone will be happy thougfh in the end lol.

600mil is still far from certain for Mario, but if it does hit it then the film is a real phenom (especially as i had it at 450-500mil after OW). People throw around 700mil and 600mil as if we get multiple films every year hitting those numbers, we dont though, in fact we have only had 13 600mil films in history, and hell we have only had 18 500mil films in hiistory and people act like 500mil is a nothing target these days. These kind of numbers are still hard to hit domestic, even 500mil.

Honestly think people are jumping the gun with all this videogame adaption talk. Mario is Mario, one of the oldest and most popular videohame characters ever. Kids love him, and adults do too, even 50 year olds probably grew up with Mario when they were teens. I dont think Mario's success is proof of anything. Mario's universe is made for animation, and animation was a sure fie hit genre along with Marvel, pre pandemic days anyway. I cant think of many other videogame franchises that would come close to what Mario is doing. Zelda wouldnt come close, although it would IMO be the closest out of Nintendo's IP's (Metroid would do nothing imo). Just look at Sonic and how popular Sonic is, just did solid at the box office and Sonic himself is way more known than most vdeogame ip's. Mario's success isnt a start of anything imo. In fact even a Mario sequel probably wont come that close to what Mario ends up maiking domestic and worldwide.

It may well hit $1B but it was never 'locked'. I predicted 450-500mil US and 900-1bil WW after the Wednesday and Thursday numbers, and i'm sticking to it.

Still dont think Mario will have the legs some of you seem to be expecting. I think if it hits 200mil for the 5 day, then 2.5x legs to get around 500mil will be IMO very good for it, and very fair. I think some of you are not being very fair with your expectations (600+mil).

The thing with Barbie is isnt it something more for girls and women?. I mean i dont have kids and dont know how kids think these days, but in my day a male kid wouldnt be seen dead going to see Barbie lol.

Yeah and the only 2 times in movie history. And i'm not saying its impossible to get 3x legs off 200+mil opening, i just said its not the norm, which it isnt.

But where is the 225 number coming from?, thats not what sites are reporting. And again its a 5 day number, not 3. 225mil would meana what?, 160mil normal weekend?. And even then it would still need slightly over 3x legs off a 225mil 5 day opening to beat A2, and 3x legs off that big an opening is not the norm.

I think the last 10-15 years has clouded judgments in terms of whats a big number these days. Even 500mil domestic has only been hit 18 times, and 12 times for 600mil. These numbers are still very hard to hit, and any film hitting 500mil should be seen as nothing but a massive hit.

I said it wont get within a billion of A2 WW, A2 is at 2.3bil. And yes i just did my prediction above, 900-1bil WW.

Yeah but we get multiple big opening films every year, and people dont lose logic as much as with this film for some reason. Anyway I'm going to get my long term predicitions in before reality dawns in the coming weeks - 450-500mil US 900-1bil WW. Now bring on the smilies!.

Its not getting 225mil OW, and its a 5 day opening anyway. The film wont be within 150mil of A2 domestic, or a billion WW. Why are people losing all logic over this movie lol?

Some incredible takes in here. The coming weeks are going to be juicy.

For an animated movie. There will be just as many, if not way more adults seeing this than kids and teenagers. Its split wont be the same as for something like Frozen imo. Lets see how it does next weekend.

There are posts in this threads tlaking about 1bil, someone even said its a lock. Talking about it being no.1 for the year, zero chance, ZERO. Poeple also acting like it just had a 100mil Wednesday or something, and not a solid 32mil. This may be an animated movie but its about Mario, something a lot of adults like too. I wont be at all surprised if this finishes in the 800mil WW range.

I dont think 1bil is locked for Mario. Its WW OW is going to be around what?, 300mil?, and thats for 5 days. Reviews will hurt it long term, regardless of the scores Nintendo fanboys are giving it right now. In fact it would of been interesting to see what its opening would of been if critic reviews had come 2 oe 3 weeks ago, not 2 or 3 days before opening.

I'm not going to because i actually want to see how wrong i end up being. I dont mind being wrong, thats why i made the post. Just a little experiment.

I havent been following tracking or anyhting like that so i could already be talking out of my backside but i still honestly think mario is going to do less than some poeple are thinking on here. Like 70-80mil OW, somehting like that. 220 dom, 500-600mil WW.

Drink and drug fueled texts (which yes he shouldnt of done). The only actual violence came from Heard, multiple times. If anything Depp came accross like a pussy really, locking himself away in rooms when Heard would be on one of her many tirades. Anyway i'm sure the mods dont want this thread full of users arguing so i'm done on the subject.

Did you watch the Depp/Heard trial?, because i'm honestly blown away that you would side with Heard if you did.

Thats why people shouldnt jump the gun with this stuff. Drama talk turns people against the accused, and when they often are proven to be innocent, some people are still against them because of all the drama crap.

On a side note do we not have a seperate forum where all the drama talk can be taken, and not in the weekend box office thread?. Anyway congrats to JW4.

I mean i'm not a big comic book fan, dont give a crap about the Flash, and even i'm thinking of seeing the film because of Keatons Batman. Also it always makes me chuckle a bit when people use their own viewpoint and try and suggest its also what the majority of movie goers think, with zero evidence to back it up.

Even with the DCU reboot thing, i think Flash might do well. It seems to be DC's No Way Home, with Batman and other characters in it. It wont do NWH numbers of course, but i think it might do well, even with the DCU reboot crap.

Not a big comic book fan here but am i right in saying that WB a while ago basically annouced they were rebooting the DCU, rendering films like Shazam and Aquaman 2 pretty much obsolete?. If i'm right, why would they annouce that so early?. I really quite liked Aquaman, and the sequel is probably going to flop because of it.