GiantCALBears
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Posts posted by GiantCALBears
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Just now, filmlover said:
I'm sure there will be articles by the end of the weekend asking "Where Have All the Moviegoers Gone?" when the problem is really the movies, not audiences.
In fairness coming into summer, 2017 was still tracking over the previous year so it's more of a problem with sequels and summer blockbusters.
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WW is tracking at $100m+ OW, that's great but there isn't really any evidence there will be a massive push higher in tracking as we get closer.
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1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:
Probably will be the best received blockbuster in a month, with the marketplace kinda dead since then. That tends to bode better for a breakout, though obviously doesn't guarantee anything.
I no longer buy in the streaming era that people have an itch to go to the movies in masse simply because there hasn't been a big movie out recently.
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Just now, Biggestgeekever said:
Expectations were sky high for AWE. Presales were even bigger than Spider-Man 3 and I remember the MTC tracking numbers were used to get from notfabio were pointing at a $175+M. Several very good predictors, including xiayun, thought it could hit $200M for the 4-day + Thursday.
I also recall that being the first weekend I ever read a deadline article. It was Nikki Finke also predicting a $200M opening.
I guess my memory is fuzzy but in retrospect expectations should've been more conservative. Guess we were having an TA to AOU sort of feeling.
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Just now, elcaballero said:
It'll have been a month since the last big "event" film.
That's no longer a major reason for people to head to the movies, anyone else got an explanation?
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2 minutes ago, John Marston said:
yeah I think it was. Many people were expecting more
I don't recall many of us on mojo saying AWE was going to do similar domestic numbers as DMC which broke all of the opening records. If anything AWE WW performance was a bit of an upside surprise.
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35 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
Bodes well for Wonder Woman next weekend.
Why is that exactly?
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3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
It have a $ 230m budget, the films is not making less than $ 600m... (probably more)
Not exactly good, but not bad either.
Remember that they take less money from foreign grosses as well. It's definitely not good, more like meh.
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15 minutes ago, Alli said:
The Mummy is tracking badly. They publicized the universe to garner hype for the mummy.
This whole monster extended universe seems like a pretty terrible idea.
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4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
I don't think the Pirates number is that bad... Is more a Family film, i don't see this movie like a movie who people think "i need to see right now in thursday midnights".
It's not gonna touch what i expected, but i still can see a $ 70 - 80m (4 day).
It's bad given the budget and advertising costs, really no other way to spin it.
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The movies do very well OS, and have been progressively increasing
Worldwide (Unadjusted)Rank Title (click to view) Studio Worldwide Domestic / % Overseas / % Year 1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $1,066.2 $423.3 39.7% $642.9 60.3% 2006 2 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV $1,045.7 $241.1 23.1% $804.6 76.9% 2011 3 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End BV $963.4 $309.4 32.1% $654.0 67.9% 2007 4 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl BV $654.3 $305.4 46.7% $348.9 53.3% 2003 5 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales BV $34.5 n/a 0% $34.5 100% 2017 TOTAL: $3,764.1 $1,279.2 34.0% $2,484.9 66.0% - AVERAGE: $752.8 $255.8 34.0% $497.0 66.0% -
My random guess is 750-800m
Domestic take once again will be a minor part of the overall story. No matter how crappy it does the film will be "profitable" but still will have by far the worst ROI of any Pirates movie. -
How is Pirates expected to do WW?
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9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
I guess this locks in the reboot plans for PotC.
How many years until gg? I'll set the o/u at year 2021.
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Amazing how often I fall for the fake previews scheme. NOOOOOOOOOOOCTIS.
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1 minute ago, Noctis said:
I love it when you talk dirty.
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Just now, ttr said:
Stupid question, but are previews same as midnights?There aren't really midnights anymore but yeah, it's the night before gross.
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36 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:
If Baywatch and Pirates 5 both underperform, at least June 2017 is looking strong and well-rounded.
- Wonder Woman looks to be in prime position to be the first major breakout hit this year (possible $125 million+ OW) since Alien and Pirates 5 aren't wowing audiences and Captain Underpants may get a $30-40 million OW solely by being the first major kids movie since March 31st.
- The Mummy should at least do ID42 numbers if it's not awful. Add in OS and it'll at least be enough not to be a bomb.
- Cars 3 should improve on Cars 2 since early screenings are pointing to it being the best film of the series while both All Eyez on Me and Rough Night have a lot of sleeper hit potential.
- Transformers 5 should ride the July 4th holiday to $150-170 million DOM - considering its huge appeal OS, that'll still result in the $750 million+ WW necessary for a 6th film to get the greenlight.
- While they'll make most of their money in July, Despicable Me 3 should at least come close to Minions and finish above the original. $275-325 million DOM is a solid finish while The House could either bomb hard or be the first comedy to do $100 million DOM this summer. Baby Driver is niche, so Nice Guys numbers are about where I expect it to go.
I think it's possible all of those movies underperform even to lowered expectations. Mummy, Cars 3, Transformers are all destined to NOT breakout. DM3 should do pretty well and WW who really knows at this point although tracking has it decently under your target of $130m OW.
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1 minute ago, Noctis said:
Deadline reporting $5.8m previews for Pirates.
That's actually better than I thought it would do and that's not saying much Loool.
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36 minutes ago, DeeCee said:
This weekend is just leaving breathing room for Wonder Woman to explode.
I was trying to say this in CCT but movie theater stocks have been hammered last couple of weeks so I'm not so sure they are expecting a big breakout from WW.
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Just now, Nova said:
Tele said no but if I had my way it would be
I couldn't tell with how non existent the hype is for the Pirates opening lmao.
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Is this the weekend thread or no?
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1 hour ago, baumer said:
Gotg hasn't followed Civil War at all whatsoever. It's been closer to Winter Soldier at this point. It's not going to have a sub 40% drop this weekend but I still seeing it getting around 33.
Well said, legs have been fine.
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Some traders made & lost life changing money today especially in the big Brazilian ETFs.
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WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.
in Numbers and Data
Posted
They do a pretty good job overall, maybe that can get it into the $110m-$120m range coupled with a great RT score they can plaster everywhere.