peludo

Sure. EG was the Star Wars, Harry Potter or LOTR of current generation. That is undeniable.

Concerning Spain, 70% of EGs, would mean about €20m ($22m), quite reasonable target in normal conditions. Now we only have to wait those conditions are not changed because of f**ing covid.

Sure. The week after Christmas uses to be the most crowded in Spain in the whole year (LOTR managed minimal drops after nearly record OWs, being released on 17-19 December, very similar dates to NWH release). And we have an extra holiday on January 6th (Three Kings). You can easily see flat drops along the holidays, even increases relative to previous weekends, like happens in USA. Said this, even although my environment is not really fan of SHs, there was real excitation about Endgame (even myself went to see it on OD with 8-10 people more), but nobody is asking me about going to see NWH. I am not denying the hype exists, but I do not think it is so extended like EGs among GAs, like it seems it is happening seeing the presales figures. Of course, this is just my personal experience. and Christmas can of course help to manage that gap.

I do not think lockdowns in Europe will be back like we had at the beginning of the crisis. But restrictions are very probable seeing the increase of cases in every European country, even more with the fear to the new omicron variant. These restrictions could affect to events like movies or theater plays at least in terms of capacity. For example, presales for NWH in Spain have been suspended with no reasoning. IMHO, the reason could be that theater chains still do not know how many seats they will have available within 15 days.

It is already number 1 on Maoyan too. 5.695b right now, 1 million over WW2.

Release close to CNY? Possible piracy because being released 1 month after WW release? Covid resurgence? I think those are enough reasons to take into account to adjust the projections.

I knew that case, but I have excluded every not HLW film. The behaviour of those foreign not American films is quite different to HLW films, way more frontloaded.

Yes, you are right. I had doubts about if the behaviour of the market is as usual 15 days before the biggest period of the year. I thought people could save some money for CNY releases, but it seems that does not happen. I have been searching for relevant HLW films released a so short time before CNY. I have found these: 2014: Despicable me 2: 324m (released 21 days before CNY) 2015: Hobbit 3: 765m (28) 2016: Kung Fu Panda 3: 1b (16) 2017: Rogue One: 477m (21) 2017: Passengers: 315m (14) 2018: The maze runner 3: 315m (21) 2019: Bumblebee: 1.15b (32) All of them are figures that we can asume as normal for this titles. So, in this case, just piracy (5 weeks is a long time) could hurt NWH.

Agreed. NWH, being released on Jan 14th, it will only have 17 days until CNY arrives and it will lose 99.99% of screens. Add the delay with the WW release and you can forget huge business for it in China.

I do not dare to make a prediction with covid rising. Who knows what can be the restrictions, mainly in Europe, within a month.

Since it seems that it will be a photo finish ending, just to point that Maoyan has WW2 with 5.694b, not 5.689b

These are the figures for Spider-man in Spain: Spider-man: 22,664,597 € (5,249,541 admissions) Spider-man 2: 14,756,999 € (3,225,729) Spider-man 3: 18,306,496 € (3,281,468) The amazing Spider-man: 9,068,512 € (1,382,874) The amazing Spider-man 2: 6,291,603 € (1,022,668) Homecoming: 9,925,910 € (1,753,759) Far from home: 13,179,672 € (2,255,450) I do not have any data about hype. Raimi's trilogy remains to be the most attended of all time in the SH genre. However, the figures of films which belong to MCU are quite similar to other films of the MCU with way less known characters (Far from home figures are the same than Captain Marvel's, for example). We are in an unknown territory since during last months the market behaviour has been absolutely conditioned by covid. Eternals OW is quite promising for MCU in order to recover pre-pandemic figures. But let's remember that covid is rising again in many European countries (50,000 new cases yesterday in Germany, new absolute record), so you should not rule out new restrictions in Europe. Spain, for the moment, has very good health conditions, so, asuming no restrictions, taking into account Christmas boost, and asuming that even Batman could appear in the film, we could even see €20m. I will say 16-18 million for the moment, since I do not trust in a magical improve of quality in Spidey MCU's films.

I am not saying it will not happen, but I see 5.65b on Maoyan, not enough to beat WW2.

With today ERs, third one after Endgame and Furious 8. I know that F8, for WW figures, did not reach $400m ($392m), but Chinese people pay in yuan, not in dollars.

FA is not so frontloaded as iMDB, but that 6.2 will drop

Excepting Spider-man, a Chinese film seems to be the best chance to see 1b film again.

WW2 was released on July 27th, 2017 2nd weekend: it was released Once upon a time (local film), which grossed 534m Yuan ($84m with today ER) 3rd weekend: Guilty of mind (local film): 304m Yuan ($48m) 4th weekend: Paradox (local film): 523m Yuan ($82m) 5th weekend: Valerian and the city of a thousand planets: 409m Yuan ($64m) 6th weekend: Dunkirk: 340m Yuan ($53m) 7th weekend: Spider-man: Homecoming: 775m Yuan ($121m) 8th weekend: War for the planet of the apes: 740m Yuan ($116m) Not very big films, but a +300m Yuan every weekend from 2nd until 8th. Tha battle at lake Changjin has only faced My country, my parents, released the same day. Since then, it has not been released any film over 300m Yuan total.

I have looked at several sites. The ER were these: https://www.xe.com/es/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY You can look at the graphic the daily ER. It is in Spanish but I think it is enough clear. On Feb 12th, release date, ER was 6.45. By the end of March it was over 6.57. And in that period, it never dropped from 6.45. You can make week averages or apply the daily figure, but at the end ERs are always in 6.45-6.55 range, which makes Hi mom final gross $826m-$839m, nowhere close of $900m.

Along February and March of this year, when Hi, mom grossed most of its money, ER was worse than now (between 6.45 and 6.55). There is no way Hi, mom has reached $900m unless the local gross is higher than what we have been said. With that ER range it should have finished with at least 5.8b-5.9b Yuan.

Just to compare, and according insideKino: Wolf Warrior 2: 159,318,290 admissions Ne Zha: 139,890,960 Hi, mom: 120,933,059 The Wandering Earth: 104,545,076 Average ticket price: The Battle at Lake Changjin: about ~48.1 yuan per admission Both Hi, mom and The Wandering Earth: ~44.6 yuan per admission Both WW2 and Ne Zha: ~35.8 yuan per admission

I have never understood to talk in dollars about local grosses in foreign countries. I can get it if we are comparing WW grosses, but in terms of a single country, I think it is way more easy to look at local currency, even more when we are used to talk about yuan amounts: Wolf Warrior 2: 5.694b Yuan Hi, mom: 5.413b The battle at lake Changjin: 5.17b (projected by Maoyan right now) Ne Zha: 5.035b

I guess holidays have finished. The forecast on Maoyan for today is 181.89m (272m for Saturday and 338m for Sunday). But even with this drop the final projection is still 5.5b.

If I am not wrong, yes, it is making 6 days in a row over 400. Hi, mom did it 5 days in a row.

And Maoyan is forecasting WED>TUE, finally over 500m. Presales are very similar to these previous days, over 80m, so it seems possible that forecast.

Very probably. Even more taking into account what first part did in China.