MJL
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Posts posted by MJL
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For some reason I have a feeling that Monday will surprise everyone...
I’m predicting 38.3M Monday (-57%)
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6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
That's not right way to do it. Better way is to consider jump from pure Friday. IW jumped 20% plus or around $14mn. Since Friday is 90mn, 20% is perhaps too much. I can think of 14mn absolute increase. But considering this film, you never know.
True, the only reason I calculated it as I did is because Deadline specifically called out the drop from OD + previews and not how we usually calculate the Saturday here
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5 minutes ago, MJL said:
Um, did you guys see this nugget from Deadline’s report???? It’s impossible, right???
“Industry estimates are already calling Endgame at the highest single day and opening day record of all-time with $140M-$150M. Estimates earlier this morning indicate a weekend take between $315M-$330M. Infinity War had a Saturday decline of 23% or $82.1M and box office analysts believe a similar ease will occur tomorrow”
So.... 150 * 0.77 = 115.5
This can’t be right...
Let’s do a 27% drop
150 * 0.73 = 109.5
So a similar ease brings us to roughly a 110+ Saturday????? 😵
https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-fastest-film-to-hit-100m-box-office-1202601937/
Someone please tell me I’m wrong because if this is the case, with a 25% drop on Sunday (very conservative) we get:
At the same % drop:
150 Friday
115.5 Saturday
86.6 Sunday
352.1 OW
or for a 27% drop from full Friday:
150 Friday
109.5 Saturday
82.1 Sunday
341.6 OW
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Um, did you guys see this nugget from Deadline’s report???? It’s impossible, right???
“Industry estimates are already calling Endgame at the highest single day and opening day record of all-time with $140M-$150M. Estimates earlier this morning indicate a weekend take between $315M-$330M. Infinity War had a Saturday decline of 23% or $82.1M and box office analysts believe a similar ease will occur tomorrow”
So.... 150 * 0.77 = 115.5
This can’t be right...
Let’s do a 27% drop
150 * 0.73 = 109.5
So a similar ease brings us to roughly a 110+ Saturday????? 😵
https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-fastest-film-to-hit-100m-box-office-1202601937/
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Um guys, I know everyone glossed over that last article from Deadline....but there is a shocking piece of data that makes me think this weekend is gonna blow up even larger than we think
“Fandango officially reports today that Avengers: Endgame before opening at 6PM tonight, is officially their biggest ticket preseller of all-time with 8K showtimes already sold out coast to coast (and beyond), from Hilo, Hawaii to Newington, New Hampshire.”
This is utterly huge!!! Let’s compare this with what fandango reported after IW’s preview number was released:
“Fandango said the sales represented the company’s highest opening night percentage for a superhero movie. It noted that more than 2,500 showtimes sold out on Fandango before the film opened, adding that theater owners are continuing to add new showtimes throughout the weekend to meet fan demand.”
links are below for both articles
https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-fandango-biggest-preseller-of-all-time-1202602025/amp/
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40 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:
$64,350.07 PTA needed for 300m
$4,368/theater over the record (TFA $59,982)
Actually less if you look at adjusted.
$2,093/theater over the record (TFA $62,257 adj)
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37 reviews up on RT
36 fresh / 1 rotten
97% (go to reviews to see them, RT doesn’t have a score yet)
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From Irish Times:
Endgame spends too much time wallowing in its own pompous mythology.
Apr 23, 2019 | Rating: 3/5 | Full Review…First review on RT and not rotten despite the summary-
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That 3/5 Irish review is up on RT And I’m surprise that it’s actually not rotten from the summary. So we are 1/1
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Since it will be mentioned undoubtedly regardless of results...let me start off the thread the right way...
”Not a record”
🤣
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You know, it’s almost getting to be @Rthanos or @EmpireCity time! Are we ready??
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I’m surprised everyone is lowballing (in my opinion) next weekend and the legs on IW. Yes, history says it should fall to 100-110M next weekend. Yes, history says that it should only get around a 2.5 - 2.7 multiplier for a total in the 600-700M range. Let me ask you all this...did history tell us that a Star Wars movie would obliterate the opening weekend record in DECEMBER?? How about how history told us how movies like Avatar and Frozen would have multipliers not seen since the 90s? How did history do when it came to runs like Black Panther or The Greatest Showman?
Sometimes you have to know when to throw predictions limited by “history” and “historical data” out the window and just go with your gut. These are my predictions:
Mon - 29M
Tues - 26M
Wed - 21M
Thurs - 20M
Fri - 42M
Sat - 63M
Sun -53M (158.5M second weekend)
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28 minutes ago, Tree said:
Yeah, it is. This would need like 1.4B os which is never going to happen
I wouldn’t say never. IW opened 100M above TFA and that movie has 1.1B. If we only look at summer movies, it opened 62M above JW and that has 1B. It’s going to be a hard road....but it’s not impossible.
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And another record of TFA broken as well:
Dec 18-20, 2015 - Gap between #1 and #2
$233,679,516
Apr 27-29, 2018
$239,350,000 est.
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Just reposting what I said a few days ago for posterity
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2 minutes ago, Mekanos said:
I feel like the inflated holiday weekend makes a 50% or bigger drop inevitable. Plus there hasn't been an MCU movie with a below 50% drop since, like, phase 1. But hey what do I know with how this movie's performing.
Even with the inflated weekend it should still follow this pattern. If we compare BP’s Tuesday to other MCU Monday’s box office after drops it looks like this:
BP - 21M Tuesday
Avengers - 18.9M Monday (Tuesday dropped lower than this even)
AoU: 13.2M Monday (dropped more on Tuesday again)
Civil War - 13.3M Monday (13.7 Tuesday)
So BP is in much better shape going towards the weekend than these to start. The weekends for these all burned off massive demand and you could make a point that since BP had in essence a 4 day weekend versus a traditional 3 day weekend for the others....BP should actually be below the others in daily gross (4 days to burn off demand instead of 3). It’s not though...which means it’s holding much better. Better weekday holds = better weekend holds in most cases.
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I think people are underestimating what BP is going to do this weekend and in total. If we look at most MCU movies released outside of summer (June thru Aug), the increase for the 2nd Friday coming from Thursday is generally greater than 130%. If we apply this to BP it looks as such:
Tues: 21M
Wed: 15.5M (-26%)
Thurs: 14.2M (-9%)
Friday: 32.66M (+130%)
Saturday: 48.99M (+50%)
Sunday: 34.3M (-30%)
2nd Weekend: 116M
And this is actually being generous with drops. If I was more aggressive, we could be looking at a 120-130M weekend
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1 minute ago, MOVIEGUY said:
I highly doubt it'll get nominated for best picture or director or any acting nominations, at best I think it could get nominated for adapted screenplay but who knows. I feel like it's probably a shoe-in for costume design and some other technicals, and I would LOVE Kendrick to get nominated for an oscar, even if it were for All the Stars or Pray for Me which are two of his worst songs, that would be the most exciting thing out to come out of any of this.
Nope, it’s a work of art that will sweep the nominations.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/top/bestofrt/
See? 😂
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3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
If Crash can get a nomination then Black Panther can get a nomination. (i could probably list dozens of shitty movies that got nominated)
But if I had to choose from a snob trophy and BP making 1.2 billion and becoming a global phenomenon then I think the choice is obvious.
Obviously it’s guaranteed a nomination. After all, there has never been a movie greater than Black Panther (check the link 2 posts above what I replied to and prepare to literally lol)
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Omg, you guys have to see this!! 😂
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/top/bestofrt/
Black Panther is the best Movie of ALL TIME according to RT
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Just now, Telehilation said:
Eh, most people here are pretty mellow. And BoT bigger than Mojo ever was. Welcome.
Most people are, I agree. But there are also some who act like pricks. I also could have sworn there was more back then, but also I haven’t really been around much on these forums because of work as I was on the old one (and the brief stint on the one before here)
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1 hour ago, KJsooner said:
Why don’t you think long and hard before you make another stupid post like this.
Wow, you don’t have to be an asshole. Ugh, with new users like you...no wonder this place isn’t as popping as the old Mojo forums
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