Australia Australian Box Office | ....

[JJ-8]

ok new update

HP8 vs TF3 vs TA

1: 18.4m/25.5m vs 12.4m/15.0m vs 13m/19m

2: 8m/38.7m vs 7m/27.2m vs 8.2m/31.1m

3: 3.8m/44.5m vs 3m/32.9m vs 5.2m/39.0m

4: 2.3m/47.8m vs 1.5m/35.5m vs ?

Projections for TA:

4: 3.3m/43.8m

5: 2.0m/46.3m

6: 1.2m/48.0m

7 (Queens Birthday): 800k/1.1m/49.5m

8: 450k/50.1m

-- School holidays roll out from here -- (really depends if it holds screens or not by now)

9: 310k/50.6m

10: 250k/51.0m

11: 250k/51.5m

...

Total = 53.0m

I think that looks about right. just amazing either way...

HP8 vs TF3 vs TA

1: 18.4m/25.5m vs 12.4m/15.0m vs 13m/19m

2: 8m/38.7m vs 7m/27.2m vs 8.2m/31.1m

3: 3.8m/44.5m vs 3m/32.9m vs 5.2m/39.0m

4:2.3m/47.8m vs 1.5m/35.5m vs 3.5m/43.9m

Project run now:

5: 2.2m/47.0m

6: 1.4m/49.0m

7 (Queens Birthday): 1.0m/1.3m/50.6m

8: 600k/51.4m

-- School holidays roll out from here -- (really depends if it holds screens or not by now)

9: 450k/52.1m

10: 400k/52.8m

11: 300k/53.3m

Total = 55m

Very very interesting... closer and closer to titanic it gets........

[lab276]

[Robertron]

The Avengers is now Number 10 All-Time!Should be good enough for Number 3 or 4 All-Time when all is said and done!

[lab276]

Also, Marigold Hotel should now be the third highest grossing film of the year, jumping ahead of Sherlock Homes 2.

[JJ-8]

The Avengers is now Number 10 All-Time!

Should be good enough for Number 3 or 4 All-Time when all is said and done!

number 3 is after that hold me thinks.

heck i'd say it's an outside shot for number 2 (given MPDAA is tracking titanic 3D seperately

[lab276]

heck i'd say it's an outside shot for number 2 (given MPDAA is tracking titanic 3D seperately

Kind of a cheap way to be second then isn't it? Considering they added Avatar's rerelease gross on.

[JJ-8]

Kind of a cheap way to be second then isn't it? Considering they added Avatar's rerelease gross on.

yes true... ok then ... first runs then + in the case of avatar's rerelease, I don't think avatar had actually finished it's run at the cinemas at the time hence it technically just expanded again, so really it could be considered to be 1 single run with a speed hump at the end.The only films excluding much much older films that benifitted a lot from a rerelease were the star wars films and really only the first got the most out it almost pushing it to 30m.

[Robertron]

Kind of a cheap way to be second then isn't it? Considering they added Avatar's rerelease gross on.

Yes, but no.Avatar was a 3D rerelease of a 3D movie,with only 2 minutes of extra footage and probably not even of a movie that had finished its initial run - call it an expansion.Titanic, on the other hand, was a 3D rerelease of a 2D movie, 15 years after it was initially released.

[Totem]

Good for Dictator, terrible for WIB

[lab276]

I contributed to WIB! It's a good film, so it could have legs.

[Robertron]

Good for Dictator, terrible for WIB

I worked Saturday and Sunday, and I think I remember selling 3 or 4 tickets personally to WiB..

[Robertron]

So, what are we thinking for Men In Black 3?Its either going to open big, or really disappoint, I believe. Lets take a look at the past two:MIB1: Est. 910,000 tickets sold with a finish of just over 3.1m. Using ScreenAustralias ATP of $7.47 for 1997, we get somewhere in the vicinity of $23.2m - which seems quite high, especially for 1997 - RTH can you shed any light on this?MIB2: 6.4m 5-day OW - 17.5m finishUrbanCinefile have been a pain in the ass with this and changed from guestimated tickets sold to actual money made right at the end of MIB1s run, so its not 100% until RTH or someone else is able to confirm.Using the above data, clearly the love for MIB has shown quite the drop. That being said, Will Smith is still a huge draw here, so here I go:MIB3:OW - 6.9mTotal - 19.1mI think it might play out roughly the same as the last in raw dollar figurs. but represent an utterly disgusting drop in ticket sales due to inflation AND 3D

[Robertron]

^Just found on Screen Australia Webstie:Men In Black 2 made $22.7m in the 1997 Calendar year - unknown as to whether or not it made any more in 1998.

[DeeCee]

Don't you mean just MIB?Also, I wish screen Australia would rank the top 50 just by year of release not the gross in the calender year. It's stupid.

Edited May 22, 2012 by DeeCee

[lab276]

^Just found on Screen Australia Webstie:Men In Black 2 made $22.7m in the 1997 Calendar year - unknown as to whether or not it made any more in 1998.

It wouldn't be anything substantial, that's probably it's full gross.

[lab276]

And I can't say I disagree with your analysis. Obviously I'd like it to do better, but that seems like wishful thinking. Hopefully the good reviews will sway the undecided.

[JJ-8]

Here is the history of the MIB FranchiseMen in Black (1997) - ??* / 22,789,539 (#3 for Year)Men in Black II (2002) - 5,353,291 / 17,617,086 (#12 for Year)* Men in Black opened to approx 855k tickets sold. Also of note it was on a then record 359 screens at the time!PS - i think someone got their wires acrossed above. the 22.7m should be MIB not MIB2

[JJ-8]

I think we can say that if MIB3 opens < 5m is a failure given it's in 3D and well frankly 10 years since the last film (inflation)here are my bars for success:< 3m - FLOP territory - it ain't going anywhere!3m to 6m - disappointment on opening, needs excellent WOM and strong legs to save it.6m to 8m - Target range for this film and it's a pass at this point.8m to 12m - we have a breakout and the stigma from no.2 had no effect.12m+ - this is WTF territory!

[JJ-8]

Don't you mean just MIB?Also, I wish screen Australia would rank the top 50 just by year of release not the gross in the calender year. It's stupid.

Agree - when i finally get around to updating my top 20's on here - i use the total grosses not calendar grosses so my charts are more in line with other countries (US for example). Screen Australia just like to be different

[lab276]

I prefer the calendar gross thing. But they should have some option for year of release.

Edited May 22, 2012 by lab276