Australia Australian Box Office | ....

[DeeCee]

Americans would be totally confused reading the last few posts.

[RthDeadWov]

Americans would be totally confused reading the last few posts.

LOL.. I could add to that but I wont

[DeeCee]

LOL.. I could add to that but I wont

What the heck. I'll add to it. It will especially confuse Americans coming here for Austrian box office numbers.

[Wormow]

Who's catching American Hustle today?

[Robertron]

Great charts, Jajang!Will be really interesting to see where CF ends up!

[DeeCee]

Will JLaw replace JLaw at the top of the Aussie chart this weekend?

[DeeCee]

Will Hustle win the weekend?

[Robertron]

Anything interesting open?

[RthDeadWov]

Will Hustle win the weekend?

maybe atm CF/AH very close

[DeeCee]

My free ticket went to AH today.

[JJ-8]

[JJ-8]

[JJ-8]

Edited December 16, 2013 by Jajang

[JJ-8]

Upcoming:

 

So remaining in 2013, we have 2 key releases with a number of mid level releases and some minor ones (of course).

 

The big hitters:

 

The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug (26th December 2013, M)

 

The first film opened to a reasonable but not over the top, 12m (impressive 17.9m including the wednesday).  Given the the fact it was a prequel to the lord of the rings, I think a lot of us expected more possibly threatening Harry Potters hold on the OW record (which he still holds today).  Remember the LOTR films broke the OW record twice (FOTR did it first in 2001 and TTT took the record in 2002 from Potter and held that record for close to 7 years before Harry took it back (twilight took it again before the final harry smashed a few records).  Also of note, ROTK held the biggest OD record until the final harry potter film smashed it in 2011.  So much more was expected of the hobbit, and while it did very well, managing it's way to 42m, it didn't quite live up to it's predecessors, not only in takings but in quality too.  DOS has a lot to live up to and the disappointing opening in the US over the weekend has indicated that we could be in for more disappointment.  Frankly, I had this weekend pegged as a potential record breaker when it was announced way back.  This year is the perfect storm if DOS can do it.  The OD which is boxing day (the biggest cinema day of the year), falls on the normal 4 day weekend giving DOS a perfect chance to smash through the records set by Potter.  The real question is can DOS overcome AUJ shortcomings.  i'm not entirely sure as I still don't feel the US is the best comparison here as these films have tended to be stronger in Australia.  I think if DOS opens under AUJ then's it's a massive disappointment and on it's way to failure frankly.  (when i say opens under i'm talking about the normal 4 day opening weekend excluding the wednesday.)  The key here will be the WOM filtering from overseas... is it any good etc etc... 

 

Prediction:

OD = 6m (I think DOS can match AUJ opening day and possibly even out open it ~ my range is 5.5m to 6.5m and no i don't see it breaking potters OD record here)  ~ btw as far as I am aware there are no midnights for this film

OW = 16m (all i will say if this falls below 12m it's bad bad bad.... but i think this could go as high as 20m if the OD is close to Potters record)

Total Potential = 35m to 45m (all depends on how big the OW is and how well the film is received here) ~ going with 40m for now.

 

Frozen (26 Dec 2013) EDIT ~ sneaks on the 20th Dec 2013.

 

About 2 months ago, I didn't even have this pegged on my radar and yet i'm now planning to take my daughters to this film over the christmas break.  I am beginning to think this could be a big breakout here.  For comparison, Tangled opened after New years in 2011 to an impressive 5.8m on it's way to over 22m at the box office.  I could see Frozen outpacing that film quite easily here... the only real competition here for kids is Cloudy 2 which will have been in the market for 3 weeks by then.  

 

OD = 2.5m

OW = 9m (it could go higher but i'm not sure on that OD as I feel hobbit could suck a bit of the audience away that day) 

 

EDIT - i've since noted that Frozen is in sneaks on the 20th, 21st, 22nd Dec and appears to opening on christmas day itself in some cinemas.  the sneaks i suspect could be as high as 2m and given it's got also christmas day in some cinemas, i think the OD and OW shoul dbe revised as follows:

 

OD (boxing day) = 1.8m

OW = 7.5m (total ~ 10.5m)

Total potential = 30m (i could see this surprising and making its way to 30m (and possibly beyond) but i'm leave this here for now)

 

Other films of interest that are opening:

 

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues (18 Dec 2013)

 

I'm still not sure how successful this can be here, but it has potential to do well, but as i said i'm not sure.  There is plenty of promotion for the film and I do think the promotion has been excellent but you must remember the first film only managed 2.3m here in total so it's going to be massive step up if this explodes here.  frankly i wouldn't be surprised if this opened under 1m.  but i'm thinking it can open reasonably and outgross the first film quite easily.

 

OW = 2.5m

Total potential = 8.5m (could make it 10m but i'm not seeing it yet)

 

The Secret life of Walter Mitty (26 Dec 2013)

 

This is a film i've been struggling to place to date... it seems an interesting premise but i see this film easily running in third place to the big guns and could even up being a miss and fall under the radar.

 

Like Frozen it's got a sneak this weekend coming and opens on christmas day (official release remains boxing day though for most)

 

OD = 1.5m

OW = 5m

Total Potential = 15m (this will only happen if it catches on a bit... but could also go the other way yet....)

 

The Railway Man (26 Dec 2013)

 

I don't know a lot about this australian / united kingdom production accept that it stars Nicole Kidman and Colin Firth.  I could see this cornering some parts of the market if it's any good.  And there should be enough room for the film to breath over the christmas / new years break.  Still this isn't the kind of film to open big. it's more likely to grow legs if it's any good.

 

OD = 1m

OW = 3m

Total Potential = 5m to 12m (really depends on the quality of the film but it could easily leg it out to 12m or more if it finds traction in the market)

 

January Films (that potentialy impact the big players and maybe big players themselves)

1st Jan - August: Osage County ~ really not sure if this will impact much at this point...

9th Jan - The book thief

16th Jan - 47 Ronin (OW could be anywhere between 2m and 5m if it breaks out)

23rd Jan - Paranormal Activity ~ maybe 1m at most ?

 

There are other potentials in Jan, but there isn't a lot of competition i can see there as yet.

 

- jajang

[Robertron]

I think CF will break the $40m - just look at DH1! CF should be able to follow that, especially with the WOM it's getting.

[RthDeadWov]

 

Top 20 Films of 2013 (to date)

 

Updated to 16th December 2013.  Film must have opened in 2013 to be included in this chart (and yes i am aware that most sites post the calendar year grosses for Australia ~ 3 films would be included in the chart - The Hobbit 1 - 23.8m; Les Miserables - 18.9m; Wreck it Ralph - 18.3m).  Highlighted films are still in this weeks top 20.

 

Not a lot of change from last weekend.  Catching Fire continues to close on Despicable Me 2 for 2nd place (School is still out as to whether Catching Fire has enough steam to make to the top spot (Beating Iron Man 3).  Thor will only remain in the top 10 until The Hobbit 2 arrives.  Even Frozen has a chance of sneaking into the top 10 of 2013.  This could well drive us to 14 films that opened in 2013 that make it past the 20m mark which would be a record.

 

POS Weeks Movie Rating  Opening Weekend  Theatres  Total Gross  1 9 Iron Man 3 M  $ 14,090,713 631  $ 39,230,000 2 12 Despicable Me 2 PG  $ 5,030,201 489  $ 35,820,000 3 4 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire M  $ 12,495,983 580  $ 31,976,793 4 12 Life of Pi PG  $ 4,937,861 545  $ 28,290,000 5 7 Fast and Furious 6 M  $ 11,088,061 513  $ 27,470,000 6 11 The Great Gatsby M  $ 6,789,897 587  $ 27,380,000 7 11 The Croods PG  $ 3,737,198 516  $ 25,280,000 8 7 Man of Steel M  $ 8,877,913 560  $ 24,340,000 9 10 Monsters University G  $ 3,852,783 494  $ 24,260,000 10 7 Thor: The Dark World M  $ 7,209,749 609  $ 22,690,559 11 6 The Hangover Part III MA15+  $ 8,928,674 496  $ 21,010,000 12 11 Gravity M  $ 3,546,776 469  $ 20,658,110 13 7 World War Z M  $ 6,003,673 464  $ 18,820,000 14 10 Now you see me M  $ 3,981,757 265  $ 17,220,000 15 8 Star Trek Into Darkness M  $ 5,257,366 486  $ 16,420,000 16 10 Django Unchained MA15+  $ 3,802,439 330  $ 16,030,000 17 7 The Wolverine M  $ 6,112,500 578  $ 15,870,000 18 8 OZ: The Great and Powerful PG  $ 4,773,684 558  $ 15,465,715 19 7 The Heat MA15+  $ 3,880,355 336  $ 15,080,000 20 10 The Silver Linings Playbook M  $ 2,340,858 242  $ 13,990,000

 

LOL on the bold part above so true even for DOM

 

I'm going to assume some of your #'s are original estimates

DM2 35.720 (will increase again)

FF6 26.995

WWZ 18.534

STID 16.310

OZ 15.255

[JJ-8]

Surprised some of r still earning. I have been trying get the updated data. Thanks for the update mate. As for the calendar gross, just acknowledging the fact. Lol. I still prefer charts based upon the year they open

[JJ-8]

I think CF will break the $40m - just look at DH1! CF should be able to follow that, especially with the WOM it's getting.

Agreed. I think cf can get there too. The trouble is how much of a hit cf takes on Boxing Day. While the likely scenario is a finish right on 40m, I think it's still possible for a total closer to 42m.

[iceroll]

 

Catching Fire Showdown

 

Catching Fire has continued to track ahead of New Moon on weekend totals but still trails by 1.6m at the same point.  It does seem at this point in time that Catching Fire should be able to outgross New Moon.  The real question is whether CF can surpasse 40m in it's run.  Compared to Deathly Hallows Part 1, if you exclude the opening weekend where the films differed by 3m, the films 2 films have tracked a very similar trajectory with Catching Fire slowly catching on Deathly Hallows Part 1.   As it stands, CF is still 2.5m behind DH1 at the same point it's run (especially important as DH1 opened at a similar timeframe in 2010.).  DH1 as mentioned started with a 3.2m lead over CF but as noted we now have a 2.5m lead after 4 weekends of play.  Given we have Christmas coming up and CF appears to earn more each time, this could indicate that the films are heading for a similar end point.  DH1 made 42.3m and CF currently trails at the same point by 2.5m, meaning if they earnt the same from this point on, CF ends with 39.8m.  Given CF is catching (no pun intended), I'd say 40m is very much on the cards.  Only the Hobbit 2 will stand in Catching Fire's way now i think.  oh and another note as expected, Catching Fire has now passed the hunger games.  Here is the showdown:

 

Wk New Moon Goblet of Fire Deathly Hallows Part I The Hunger Games Catching Fire   19-Nov-2009 1-Dec-2005 18-Nov-2010 22-Mar-2012 21-Nov-2013             1: 16.1m/16.1m 12.4m/14.4m 15.3m/15.3m 9.1m/9.1m 12.5m/12.5m Scns/Ave - 552/22,383 610/25,071 471/19,218 580/21,545 2: 6.0m/26.3m 5.1m/20.9m 6.7m/25.9m 4.8m/16.2m 6.8m/22.7m 3: 2.6m/30.8m 2.6m/25.6m 3.4m/31.2m 3.2m/21.3m 3.5m/28.3m 4: 1.6m/33.6m 1.2m/28.2m 2.1m/34.5m 2.3m/26.0m 2.2m/32.0m 5: 964k/35.3m 1.5m/31.1m 1.3m/36.7m 1.5m/28.4m   6: 492k/36.4m 886k/33.0m 567k/38.1m * 683k/29.8m   7: 403k/37.4m 563k/34.2m 799k/39.8m 398k/30.4m   8: 216k/37.8m 346k/34.9m 480k/40.9m 184k/30.7m   9: 123k/38.1m 163k/35.2m 222k/41.5m 101k/30.9m   10:     79k/41.8m 44k/31.0m         * Estimated     TOTAL: 38.7m 35.7m 42.3m 31.1m 31.98m           39m

 

Great analysis!  And I think that it will do 40m as well, and kick IM3 from the top spot.  If DOS falls a bit from AUJ it could be #1 of the year too right?

[JJ-8]

Great analysis! And I think that it will do 40m as well, and kick IM3 from the top spot. If DOS falls a bit from AUJ it could be #1 of the year too right?

Yep. DOS can slip slightly from AUJ and still pass 40m. And we only need 39.5 or so to be #1 for the year.