The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[AniNate]

I guess Michael Cimino. I have seen neither Deer Hunter nor Heaven's Gate, but I understand they're polar opposites in terms of quality.

There's four guys who have him beat adjusted: Milos Forman (Amadeus) with Valmont, Bruce Beresford (Driving Miss Daisy) with Mister Johnson, Bernardo Bertolucci (The Last Emperor) with The Sheltering Sky, and Paul Haggis (Crash) with In the Valley of Elah.We all know who the biggest earner is, of course Edited August 21, 2012 by tribefan695

[lab276]

Something interesting I've noticed is that 2012 is, so far anyway, the anti-2011. Whenever any 2011 month was down in gross from 2010, 2012 has been up. If this pattern continues, September will be down, and October-December will all be up.

[lab276]

You know, I don't think there's any way August makes it over 100m admissions. That's under my lowest expectations.

[Rudolf]

2012 is only 3.7% ahead 2011 (it has come down steadily from 23.7% end of March)it wll further come down because September 2011 was record settingafter that it should stay clear and come in between 2011 and 2010

[lab276]

It's just dawned on me how strong October looks. There could be a slew of success in there, although there are too many movies on the 26th. From mid-September, I think we'll be seeing a nice recovery from a very weak summer.

[Shawn Robbins]

Doing some research for the upcoming Number Crunch Summer Re-Cap ... and it looks like this summer will be in a dead-heat with 2010's 15-year low in tickets sold.

[Shawn Robbins]

It's just dawned on me how strong October looks. There could be a slew of success in there, although there are too many movies on the 26th. From mid-September, I think we'll be seeing a nice recovery from a very weak summer.

Agreed, the 26th looks like a huge mess. I don't think anything cracks $20 million...and maybe only one or two get to $15 million. Cloud Atlas feels like a disappointment-in-waiting to me.

[CJohn]

Doing some research for the upcoming Number Crunch Summer Re-Cap ... and it looks like this summer will be in a dead-heat with 2010's 15-year low in tickets sold.

Very curious to read that Number Crunch.

[kayumanggi]

2012 is only 3.7% ahead 2011 (it has come down steadily from 23.7% end of March)it wll further come down because September 2011 was record settingafter that it should stay clear and come in between 2011 and 2010

It's because summer 2011 was a record-breaking summer season.

[AniNate]

I know it hasn't been very long, but might we be at the point now where we're so far ahead in this quarter from last year that we can say we're out of a recession? The fall/holiday season has made up for the disappointing summer in spades. I admit I was one of those who was pretty skeptical that the box office could rebound so strongly but it seems to have done just that.

Edited December 17, 2012 by tribefan695

[Chewy]

So in the end stronger product equaled stronger turnout, as many keep saying every time a "box office recession" is brought up

[lab276]

If the rest of the year follows [year], 2012 would end up with:2011: 1366.5m2010: 1367.4m2009: 1392.5mIn any case, it would be a very strong end to the year. At the low end, the increase over 2011 would be 6.5%, the biggest year-on-year increase since 1998.As for next year, I expect a drop in admissions, my too early estimate is 1.35b tickets.

[lab276]

I know it hasn't been very long, but might we be at the point now where we're so far ahead in this quarter from last year that we can say we're out of a recession?

You could say the same thing for the first quarter. But then Summer happened.

[AniNate]

You could say the same thing for the first quarter. But then Summer happened.

Yeah, overall this has been a very good year. It's just the season everyone expected to carry the load ended up not living up to expectations.It's difficult for me to see how 2013 can match up, though. There's plenty of intriguing possibilities, but not as many guarantees.

[lab276]

It's difficult for me to see how 2013 can match up, though. There's plenty of intriguing possibilities, but not as many guarantees.

I think the weakest months (relatively) will be March and July. May and November look excellent. Edited December 17, 2012 by lab276

[kayumanggi]

I think the weakest months (relatively) will be March and July. May and November look excellent.

June looks amazing too. I hope July surprises.

[kayumanggi]

As far as I am concerned, 2012 hasn't been in a recession and is not disappointing.

[Wormow]

I think the weakest months (relatively) will be March and July. May and November look excellent.

Big months like November-December with Thor 2, Ender's Game, Catching Fire and The Hobbit, the Summer seasons gonna be great next year.

[AniNate]

Jan-Feb don't look very good. I won't be surprised if we're back thinking about a recession by early March.

[CJohn]

They look both very weak compared to last year. Specially February. We had 3 100M movies in February this year!

Edited December 26, 2012 by CJohn