BadAtGender Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 205m Sisters - 22m Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Road Chip - 14m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BourneFan #1 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Let's go people! I know the contest stole some of this thread's thunder but there should be more predictions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Star Wars:215 million, Sisters:15 million, Alvin 4:12.6 million Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Star Wars - 234M Alvin - 14.5M Sisters - 10.1M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Star Wars - 247.5m Alvin - 14m Sisters - 9m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Oh, and as entertaining as it is, I'm not taking Boxofficerules predict at face value. I'm as amused as everyone else, and I'm extremely flexible when it comes to what constitutes a valid predict, but that's not a serious predict. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 (edited) Here we go. A lot of folks are chickening out on making predictions on TFA, making finding predicts for TFA more difficult than I expected. But they're devoting 100% of their attention to it anyway, so even references to Road Chip and Sisters even harder to find. Oh, well. Compared to other sides, we're a little optimistic on TFA and Road Chip, but pretty much in the middle on Sisters, given the relative lack of other predicts this weekend. To be fair, predicts are kinda all over the place on TFA. Usually, the error Ratio goes down as predicted BO goes up. MJ2 was 11.56%, Spectre was 11.39%, etc. But as has been discussed, that seems to break down once a movie is predicted to open over $100M or so. After that, it seems to slowly start working in the other direction as the pool of comparables suddenly gets really small. Anyway, I'm sure most of us are catching TFA tonight, and I'm looking forward to that. The Force Awakens Mean: 234.3M Median: 233.6M StnDev: 38.01M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 16.22% High: 313M Low: 155M BO.com 229M Deadline 203M ScreenRant.com Variety 210M Road Chip Mean: 12.9M Median: 13.2M StnDev: 3.44M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.55% High: 21.4M Low: 5M BO.com 12.5M Deadline 12M ScreenRant.com Variety 12M Sisters Mean: 13.3M Median: 13.7M StnDev: 4.69M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 35.30% High: 22M Low: 4.5M BO.com 229M Deadline 15M ScreenRant.com Variety 13M Edited December 17, 2015 by Wrath 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 A fun weekend, and one of our best ever in predictions. Force Awakens Prediction: 234.3M +/- 38.01M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 248M (off by 13.7M, so 0.36 stndev) An astounding BO result and a solid prediction by us. Plus, solidly better than anyone else as the folks who did predict mostly went low except BO.com who simply didn't go as high as we did. Grats to DAJK as best predictor on the biggest opening movie ever by guessing 248M. Road Chip Prediction: 12.9M +/- 3.44M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 14.3M (off by 1.4M, so 0.40 stndev) Another solid predict by us, and once again we had the best predict as everyone else went just a touch lower (12-12.5M). Mrs Wrath absolutely made my weekend by promising me she wouldn't even try to make me take the kids to go see this thing. But I do seem to have a connection of sorts with this franchise, as I had the best predict for it, at 14.5M, albeit just barely over 4 folks who all predicted 14M. Sisters Prediction: 13.3M +/- 4.69M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 13.9M (off by 0.6M, so 0.13 stndev) Outstanding prediction and once again the best predict of the lot. Impressively, we weren't the highest guess this time, we were just the closest. Best predict was by Krissykins at 14M. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...