mikeymichael Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Has Spizzer released an estimated tickets sold update for TFA. Figure it's probably around 85 million, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 1 hour ago, mikeymichael said: Has Spizzer released an estimated tickets sold update for TFA. Figure it's probably around 85 million, right? It should be over 90M. I've it around 90-91M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 weekend prediction BO.com Quote Kung Fu Panda 3 Jan 29, 2016 Fox / DreamWorks $51,000,000 $51,000,000 The Revenant (2015) Dec 25, 2015 Fox $11,200,000 $136,800,000 Star Wars 7 Dec 18, 2015 Disney $10,000,000 $894,400,000 The Finest Hours Jan 29, 2016 Disney $9,200,000 $9,200,000 Fifty Shades of Black Jan 29, 2016 Open Road $8,500,000 $8,500,000 Ride Along 2 Jan 15, 2016 Universal $7,000,000 $69,400,000 Dirty Grandpa Jan 22, 2016 Lionsgate $6,800,000 $22,000,000 The 5th Wave Jan 22, 2016 Sony / Columbia $5,900,000 $19,200,000 13 Hours... Benghazi Jan 15, 2016 Paramount $5,800,000 $42,300,000 The Boy Jan 22, 2016 STX $5,700,000 $19,300,000 http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2016-01-weekend-forecast-kung-fu-panda-3-the-finest-hours-fifty-shades-of-black Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 4 hours ago, mikeymichael said: Has Spizzer released an estimated tickets sold update for TFA. Figure it's probably around 85 million, right? We got a 120M domestic IMAX figure yesterday or Monday, so 13.6%. 3D was running pretty high even past the 3rd weekend (and then we got a weird report that suggested 3D share had jumped significantly since OW, I'm ignoring that), so given the relatively low share of gross done in the last couple of weeks, we're looking at 24-25% from RealD and 6-7% from PLF. That puts the tickets sold at 85-86M. Every dollar from here on out basically increases the confidence that TPM attendance has been crossed. Should cross 90M tickets once it hits the 915-920M range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 17 hours ago, spizzer said: We got a 120M domestic IMAX figure yesterday or Monday, so 13.6%. 3D was running pretty high even past the 3rd weekend (and then we got a weird report that suggested 3D share had jumped significantly since OW, I'm ignoring that), so given the relatively low share of gross done in the last couple of weeks, we're looking at 24-25% from RealD and 6-7% from PLF. That puts the tickets sold at 85-86M. Every dollar from here on out basically increases the confidence that TPM attendance has been crossed. Should cross 90M tickets once it hits the 915-920M range. I think one of your basic premises may be faulty. At least what I interpret your premise to be. If IMAX is worth 13% of total gross, its % of total tickets would be much lower than that. TFA is also playing like a family film and even during the holidays it was disproportionately better during matinees. That is why we had much better than expected holds on both CMAS eve and NY eve (2 days where evening showing are stunted and matinees are where the business is at). So while TFA has hadexceptional business from IMAX, it still has around 750 million non IMAX. I am not saying I think you are way off, but you could be low balling TFA's ticket sales by a few million. I think your estimate of 10.50 or so dollars a ticket is a bit high. You could be right, I just think you are weighting IMAX and evenings too heavily into the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 20 hours ago, tokila said: I think one of your basic premises may be faulty. At least what I interpret your premise to be. If IMAX is worth 13% of total gross, its % of total tickets would be much lower than that. TFA is also playing like a family film and even during the holidays it was disproportionately better during matinees. That is why we had much better than expected holds on both CMAS eve and NY eve (2 days where evening showing are stunted and matinees are where the business is at). So while TFA has hadexceptional business from IMAX, it still has around 750 million non IMAX. I am not saying I think you are way off, but you could be low balling TFA's ticket sales by a few million. I think your estimate of 10.50 or so dollars a ticket is a bit high. You could be right, I just think you are weighting IMAX and evenings too heavily into the equation. I'm estimating % of IMAX tickets at 8.7% so I'm not sure what you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 3 hours ago, spizzer said: I'm estimating % of IMAX tickets at 8.7% so I'm not sure what you mean? ok, that is what I was wondering if what you are doing? What is your matinee split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 32 minutes ago, tokila said: ok, that is what I was wondering if what you are doing? What is your matinee split? There's no feasible way to do a matinee split, we've never been provided the numbers outside of a few of the record-level opening days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 3 hours ago, spizzer said: There's no feasible way to do a matinee split, we've never been provided the numbers outside of a few of the record-level opening days. ya thats what I figured. I believe based on the daily trends TFA favors matinees compared to most movies. Thus the extremely good holds on NY Eve and CMas eve (2 days where evenings are weak). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...