Derbvis | Week 26

[ChipDerby]

Maybe I should quit predicting, lol

https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

[ChipDerby]

1	Legion and Thunder	81.150%	67.537%	82.663%	8.569%	13	10
	2	8wombi7	79.586%	60.221%	81.737%	7.005%	12	10
	3	TalismanRing	79.199%	41.835%	83.351%	6.618%	11	10
	4	M37	78.487%	62.851%	80.225%	5.906%	10	10
	5	StormbreakerXXR	77.942%	63.978%	79.494%	5.361%	9	10
	6	Grebacio	76.270%	40.471%	80.247%	3.689%	8	10
	7	glassfairy	74.539%	31.356%	79.338%	1.958%	7	10
	8	IdahoJacket	71.828%	59.628%	73.184%	-0.753%	6	10
	9	datpepper	71.030%	61.605%	72.078%	-1.551%	5	10
	10	Goldenhour36	70.157%	15.204%	76.263%	-2.424%	4	10
	11	Sandro Mazzola	65.946%	86.655%	63.644%	-6.636%	3	10
	12	AN9815	61.170%	35.508%	64.021%	-11.411%	2	10

[M37]

What an awful scoring week - how about a collective mulligan on that one? 

[ChipDerby]

53 minutes ago, M37 said:

What an awful scoring week - how about a collective mulligan on that one? 

 

Agreed I'll delete

[M37]

44 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Agreed I'll delete

I was mostly being facetious, was just a very difficult week to forecast, but that’s someone else’s call.

 

I‘m sure @Legion and Thunder won’t mind losing a 1st place finish 😉

[Comeback Legion]

And now, witness the true power of predicting 47M for Jurassic World 

[Grebacio]

I almost got 0% on lightyear, since I had it at 100M+ until Thursday night

[M37]

I'm sitting at ~86% (91%/85%) after Sunday estimates - how about everyone else? Both Disney movies killed my score

[Grebacio]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

I'm sitting at ~86% (91%/85%) after Sunday estimates - how about everyone else? Both Disney movies killed my score

83.33%.

My highlights are a perfect score on Bob's Burgers and 98.6% on Black Phone, while my lowest scores are 63.41% on Elvis and 68.13% on Bad Guys

 

[Comeback Legion]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

I'm sitting at ~86% (91%/85%) after Sunday estimates - how about everyone else? Both Disney movies killed my score

You’re up 2.5 on grebacio, should be pretty locked https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BMEPoyDk7TN25-3VIR_jGTOPZlYulc6H6VbkXYDXkp0/edit

Edited June 26, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

You’re up 2.5 on grebacio, should be pretty locked https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BMEPoyDk7TN25-3VIR_jGTOPZlYulc6H6VbkXYDXkp0/edit

 

Those sub $1M movies are so difficult to get precise, a fair amount of luck involved.  Just curious: why were ya'll so much higher on Bad Guys? I thought I had miscalculated something when I saw the average and range

[Comeback Legion]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

Those sub $1M movies are so difficult to get precise, a fair amount of luck involved.  Just curious: why were ya'll so much higher on Bad Guys? I thought I had miscalculated something when I saw the average and range

I forget the exact calcs at this point but I think I felt that with a -48 wed vertical the wknd should be softer than that especially since it was rebounding from the LY hit and TC loss wasn’t that bad.

[Grebacio]

9 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

I forget the exact calcs at this point but I think I felt that with a -48 wed vertical the wknd should be softer than that especially since it was rebounding from the LY hit and TC loss wasn’t that bad.

Same, I thought last weekend's drop was due Lightyear and that it would have stabilize this weekend

[M37]

21 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Same, I thought last weekend's drop was due Lightyear and that it would have stabilize this weekend

Ah, I see: I didn’t plan for a rebound given how non-family LY’s audience was. So the -45% drop + TC and expected show loss got me under $500K

[ChipDerby]

Honestly predicting holdovers now is extremely difficult. So props to anyone who can do it well consistently.

[XXR!™]

On 6/26/2022 at 11:46 AM, M37 said:

 

Those sub $1M movies are so difficult to get precise, a fair amount of luck involved.  Just curious: why were ya'll so much higher on Bad Guys? I thought I had miscalculated something when I saw the average and range

I have a hamster that picks random numbers for me and that’s the whole basis of my prognostication. 
 

#HamsterQuant