mexico Mexico Box Office | Inside Out 2 close to $72M; will Day One create much noise?

[Carlangonz]

Since Rise of the Beasts last week I've been running an extra count half hour before first shows start. The Flash seems to be performing better on walk-ins; +30% compared to +25% on Transformers. Occupancy is still below at 43% compared to 49% of Paramount's flick tho.

Adjusted comp with ROTB went up $0.7M to $17M previews. Its only weakness compared to it is worst performance on late night shows on the Metro Area so it's up to see if they're able to pick up on pure walk-ins.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

Final allocation sits at 40k; above both Spiderverse's 33k and Beasts' 31k but below Fast X's 47k.

 

Thursday sales don't seem to indicate frontloadness and suggest somewhere between $32M-$37M opening day with previews. That's a relief after previews.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

On 6/14/2023 at 3:29 PM, Carlangonz said:

Internal multi should be better than any of the Guardians/Fast X comp due to addition of IMAX, 4DX and PLFs from Thursday onwards so somewhere around $150M on opening weekend including previews which is similar to Quantumania. 

For better or worse so far does seem to be there after $65M from Wed-Thu-Fri. Luckily for it, ER on Fri went even better than on Thu so could make it close to $9M. 

[Purple Minion]

ER is unbelievable!

 

150M lc is not a terrible OW but with such high ATP I was expecting it to be closer to 200M lc. Audience on level with Shazam!

Edited June 17, 2023 by Purple Minion

[charlie Jatinder]

So Endgame admits give $110-120M today

[Purple Minion]

$9.4M OW for The Flash, 2nd largest OS after China. Close to 160M lc.

[Purple Minion]

Other totals: TLM $19.7M, Spider-Verse 2 $23.7M, Transformers 6 $13M+ (ouch).

[Carlangonz]

Flash should beat Quantumania but honestly don't know if it could surpass Little Mermaid or even The Rise of the Beasts. Honestly not a good year for CBM. 

 

Little Mermaid remains the most impressive to me, now it looks like it could top $380M depending how Elemental impacts it on screen retention.

 

Rise of the Beasts is looking like $350M final; it doesn't have direct competition and even stuff like Indy or Mission Impossible won't be bigger than it. 

 

Spiderverse still looking like o/u $500M; sandwiched between Homecoming and Far From Home.

 

Both Fast X and Guardians 3 took a hit losing not only screens/shows but also theaters. At least Guardians has managed to beat The Batman and Fast X is looking at $660M on par with Fast 8.

[Purple Minion]

Fast X ($36.7M) finally passed GOTG3 ($36.1M). Bogeyman is now at $1.7M.

[Carlangonz]

Indy 5 it's having presales in the end. Although for one week only; I'm expecting an opening close to a Bond title so $60M-$70M. Anyway I'll track it to use data in case Death Reckoning or even Oppenheimer open advanced sales and Dune II later this year 

[Purple Minion]

Saw this in Twitter: Mexico is the only country so far in the Top 5 OS of all this year's tent-poles: Quantumania, Super Mario Bros, GOTG3, Fast X, Little Mermaid, Spider-Verse 2, Transformers 6 and The Flash.

 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Gavin Feng]

5 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

Saw this in Twitter: Mexico is the only country so far in the Top 5 OS of all this year's tent-poles: Quantumania, Super Mario Bros, GOTG3, Fast X, Little Mermaid, Spider-Verse 2, Transformers 6 and The Flash.

 

every time I see overseas numbers I’m curious why Mexico like cinema so much…

[Bobzaruni]

19 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

every time I see overseas numbers I’m curious why Mexico like cinema so much…

A strengthening economy and a growing middle class coupled with what seems to be a heightened interest is making Mexico as important as it is now

Edited June 19, 2023 by Bobzaruni

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

every time I see overseas numbers I’m curious why Mexico like cinema so much…

Kids from 90s who witnessed birth of multiplex now have resources to attend even or more frequently than before and older crowds attend just as much.

 

Most multiplex also locate at malls so is easier for exhibitors to draw audiences into them. Unlike US where malls are dying they're thriving in here because several factors like socialization, security and convenience as some of them integrate even offices or train stations.

 

I think innovation factors as well. Stuff like VIP (dine-in), 4DX and reserved seating have existed long before than in most places except for Asia so people has been keeping up with a more pleasant experience than it used to be.

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

Saw this in Twitter: Mexico is the only country so far in the Top 5 OS of all this year's tent-poles: Quantumania, Super Mario Bros, GOTG3, Fast X, Little Mermaid, Spider-Verse 2, Transformers 6 and The Flash.

 

I think streak should extend to Elemental and Ruby Gillman but missing with either Dial of Destiny or Death Reckoning if Maverick is any indication. But inevitably should pick up again with Barbie, Meg 2, TMNT and Blue Beetle.

[Purple Minion]

2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

every time I see overseas numbers I’m curious why Mexico like cinema so much…

From a statistical point of view, the Top 5s have been triggered by a quite high ATP and the lower ER since Dec 2015. If peso had stayed as weak as during pandemic levels, Mexico may not be in some of those tops.

[Purple Minion]

Actuals for The Flash lower than estimates, 149.3M lc and 1.9M tickets. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

Actuals for The Flash lower than estimates, 149.3M lc and 1.9M tickets. 

So 4-Day without previews actually went under Little Mermaid's 

[Purple Minion]

If this market follows the trend in Argentina, Elemental is going to devour The Flash next week. Wonder if there will be last-minute screen reassignments...

[Carlangonz]

41 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

If this market follows the trend in Argentina, Elemental is going to devour The Flash next week. Wonder if there will be last-minute screen reassignments...

I'm thinking $90M for Elemental but it'll be the biggest walk-in release since Creed 3 so could push for $100M+ beating Flash's second weekend which may be $60M