Mexico Box Office | Apes repeat on top; good $3.2M OW for IF; no bright future for Tarot

[Sophia Jane]

I doubt The Marvels even able to beat The Incredible Hulk worldwide

Edited October 30, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[Purple Minion]

Radical #2, Trolls #3; Paw Patrol's total $6.6M.

 

Captain Marvel did well because it lead directly to Endgame, and it was packed with nostalgia. The MCU movies post-Thanos have very fragmented, complicated storylines; with so many intertwined TV shows with subpar writing and acting, I can't understand where things are going... I am still trying to digest the awful Secret Invasion. Also, the Multiverse is becoming very repetitive (pun not intended). I mean, where else can you go from the all-time Spider-Man rush?

Edited October 30, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

$164M were reported for Five Nights at Freddy's. Down from initial estimate from Universal, on line with forecast and best result for horror not only this year but since 2019's It: Chapter Two. Remains to be seen if it beats The Nun II.

Radical decreases only 28% to $30M and along with excellent weekdays is now up to $92M. Killers of the Flower Moon also holds well (-43%) with $8.1M and collects $27.7M.

 

Trolls 3 is kinda meh as it opens to $27.6M which is below what Paw Patrol did earlier this month. Same as Hypnotic with only $6.8M

6. The Exorcist: Believer - $6M/$165.3M

7. Equalizer: Final Chapter - $4.1M/$63.9M

8. The Eras Tour - $3.5M/$142.8M

9. Mira - $3.3M/$16.4M

10. Paw Patrol - $2.7M/$118.4M

 

[Carlangonz]

On 10/27/2023 at 11:43 AM, Carlangonz said:

30 hours update

 

125 sold / 13,979 available

 

Across the Spiderverse (36 hours) - 4,876/19,284

Barbie (30 hours) - 2,627/22,440

The Little Mermaid (30 hours) - 449/11,662

 

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-10 DAYS

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
The Marvels	285	27155	1.05%	+128%

 

Comps at the same point before release

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-13	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Little Mermaid	778	15285	5.095	+73.27%	36.63%	$8.64M
Spiderverse	6663	19284	34.55%	+36.65%	4.28%	$1.88M

 

Even I'm taking these comps with a grain of salt because those numbers are simply awful. I'm not using Barbie because of different presale schedule and Flash is also useless given they were Wed previews + Thu opening day. Transformers and Insidious could've been good comps because they represent best-case scenario for final days but they had the same release pattern as Flash. 

I know people say DOM sales are bad but at least they don't point towards Blue Beetle territory. And unlike Brazil where it saved some face beating Flash and Shazam 2, here it remains DC's biggest flop since 2003's Catwoman.

Hopefully all this is a fluke and opens at least to $80M-$90M.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Carlangonz

[BOfficeStats]

1 hour ago, Carlangonz said:

8. The Eras Tour - $3.5M/$142.8M

 

Is that correct? 

 

A 92% drop from last weekend ($43.6M) is crazy.

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, BOfficeStats said:

Is that correct? 

 

A 92% drop from last weekend ($43.6M) is crazy.

Yeah but it also lost most of its shows as well

[Purple Minion]

Great for Radical, proving that Derbez is still a BO magnet.

 

That's a huge drop from estimates for Freddy's. And The Marvels.... yikes. Hope walk-ins are decent.

[Carlangonz]

6 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

That's a huge drop from estimates for Freddy's.

Hadn't included previews so it's up to $189M. $25M in previews so after all my comps on tracking were actually on point despite screen count.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

17        192,000,000  Shazam: Fury of the Gods

18        189,400,000  Five Nights at Freddy's

19        184,100,000  Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part I

 

Finally another movie makes it into the Top 20 of the year in lc. 2.9M tickets sold for the animatronics.

[Carlangonz]

On 10/30/2023 at 4:45 PM, Carlangonz said:

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-10 DAYS

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
The Marvels	285	27155	1.05%	+128%

 

Comps at the same point before release

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-13	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Little Mermaid	778	15285	5.095	+73.27%	36.63%	$8.64M
Spiderverse	6663	19284	34.55%	+36.65%	4.28%	$1.88M

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-8 DAYS

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-10
The Marvels	376	25462	1.48%	+31,93%

 

Comps at the same point before release

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-10	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Little Mermaid	1092	17685	6.17%	+40.36%	34.43%	$8.13M
Spiderverse	7558	19284	39.19%	+13.43%	4.97%	$2.19M

 

As M37 pointed out in DOM thread; similarly in here it's probably due to Halloween and Dia de Muertos that pace has slowed down but still not good news that it went below Little Mermaid. Considering the holidays extend until Thursday and therefore many schools and even offices have decided to stay off-labor until Monday we either see a great jump or a bigger drop.

This is still struggling to surpass Little Mermaid's first 30 hours of sales and even considering that one didn't even held midnights makes it worse. I think is safe to say that 4-Day opening is looking very much likely to go under Captain Marvel's opening day back in 2019 - $79M.

Also looking to contest Blue Beetle as the lowest grossing CBM of the year and The Incredible Hulk as lowest grossing MCU ever. Although in the end this one may have the edge.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

On 11/1/2023 at 4:30 PM, Carlangonz said:

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-8 DAYS

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-10
The Marvels	376	25462	1.48%	+31,93%

 

Comps at the same point before release

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-10	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Little Mermaid	1092	17685	6.17%	+40.36%	34.43%	$8.13M
Spiderverse	7558	19284	39.19%	+13.43%	4.97%	$2.19M

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-6 DAYS

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-8
The Marvels	509	25462	2%	+35.37%

 

Comps at the same point before release

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-8	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Little Mermaid	1393	17685	7,88	+27.56%	36.54%	$8.62M
Spiderverse	8692	19284	45,07	+15%	5.86%	$2.58M
Barbie	12557	23117	54,32	+20.09%	4.05%	$4.29M

 

It has finally surpassed Mermaid's first 30 hours! Next target is The Flash's 634 tickets which only accounted for previews instead of full Day One. So still not good at all.

Pace is improving so is good to see holidays didn't completely buried it and managing to stay neck on neck with Little Mermaid. I think it can keep acceleration on par with that one but I don't know if walk-ins will be equally as healthy considering this is still an MCU entry. 

All that said, jumps aren't anything spectacular so unless where witnessing something completely unprecedented for a movie this size I'm staying on my position on par with Blue Beetle and somewhere on low to mid 40s opening weekend. High 30s and below DC's title would be something else but if Quatumania-like scenario happens in terms of reception I guess there's that chance.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

THE HUNGER GAMES: BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - FIRST 12 HOURS (T-12 DAYS)

 

126 sold tickets / 997 total available

For any future reference. I don't really have much comps for this one; I took data for Rise of the Beasts until T-7 and Little Mermaid was a full-day opening just like Marvels. Overall seems like a healthy start -above MI7 and double of Marvels- but I'm aware there may be a fan-rush.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

How do you Live? (aka The Boy and the Heron) has secured a local distributor. They have December reserved for Koreeda's Monster so probably won't arrive until late January on time for awards season.

 

Unfortunately they don't have a wide reach as they focus mostly on certain complexes within 1st tier cities so won't make much as I expected initially. PSA shall be high tho.

[Purple Minion]

2 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

How do you Live? (aka The Boy and the Heron) has secured a local distributor. 

 

Do you know how it will be called in Mexico?

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

 

Do you know how it will be called in Mexico?

Is keeping US translation Boy and the Heron (El Niño y La Garza)

[Purple Minion]

Freddy's total is now $16.8M.

[Carlangonz]

On 11/3/2023 at 1:18 PM, Carlangonz said:

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-6 DAYS

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-8
The Marvels	509	25462	2%	+35.37%

 

Comps at the same point before release

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-8	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Little Mermaid	1393	17685	7,88	+27.56%	36.54%	$8.62M
Spiderverse	8692	19284	45,07	+15%	5.86%	$2.58M
Barbie	12557	23117	54,32	+20.09%	4.05%	$4.29M

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-3 DAYS

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-6
The Marvels	717	25462	2.82%	+40,86%

Comps at the same point before release

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Little Mermaid	1949	17685	11.02%	+39,91%	36.79%	$8.68M
Spiderverse	9797	19284	50.8%	+12.71%	7.32%	$3.22M
Barbie	15226	23117	65.86%	+21,26%	4.71%	$4.99M
Indy 5	345	11086	3.11%		207.83%	$12.89M

 

It still lives! Unlike DOM where looks like it's plummeting here is getting a better traction and once again above Little Mermaid on pace.

I'm adding Dial of Destiny as a comp due to that one's particular closeness to Little Mermaid on pace right at the end. Both grew over 80% from T-3 to T-1 so it'll be interesting to see how it gets there.

Now how close will end up to Blue Beetle is up to reception. Low-end seems to be right on $30M and high-end on $55M but of course it requieres GOTG3 levels of reception. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

On 11/3/2023 at 1:28 PM, Carlangonz said:

THE HUNGER GAMES: BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - FIRST 12 HOURS (T-12 DAYS)

 

126 sold tickets / 997 total available

BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-9 DAYS

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy
Hunger Games	292	2324	12.56%

 

Still not adding comps until T-7. 

[Carlangonz]

NOVEMBER 2-5 WEEKEND. 

1. Five Nights at Freddy's - $76.4M/$301.6M (-53.41%)
2. Radical - $30M/$132.9M (-1%)
3. Trolls: Band Together - $27.9M/$61.7M (+1.09%)
4. The Jester - $8.4M
5. Señora Influencer - $7.8M
6. Confesiones - $6.7M
8. Killers of the Flower Moon - $6.6M/$37.5M (-18.52%)
9. Hypnotic - $3.7M/$13.4M (-45.59%)
10. The Exorcist: Believer - $3.3M/$171.4M (-45%)

 

Holidays worked pretty well for everything so we'll see how hard are drops next weekend where there's a massive screen loss. Anyways Trolls seems to be recovering from a dissapointing opening and Radical has become a sleeper hit and the biggest local hit in 4 years. 

Don't think Freddy has enough fuel to blow past $400M or Nun II but still shall manage to become Blumhouse's largest hit in the country surpassing last year's Black Phone and claiming another success for Jason Blum this year along Insidious 5 and to a lesser extent - M3GAN and Exorcist: Believer- which is finishing past Evil Dead: Rise and along Pope's Exorcist.

[Purple Minion]

Wow, amazing holds, so rare to see any movie with 2nd weekend increase!

 

1 hour ago, Carlangonz said:

Radical has become a sleeper hit and the biggest local hit in 4 years. 

 

Was the previous one "Cindy La Regia"?