Mexico Box Office | Apes repeat on top; good $3.2M OW for IF; no bright future for Tarot

[Purple Minion]

2023: Biopics and videogame movies are hot, Disney and DC are not. Let's see if Aquaman II can revert the trend.

 

Top Movies 2023 (lc)

 

05        497,000,000  Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

06        387,300,000  Five Nights at Freddy's

07        384,300,000  The Nun 2

---

17        211,800,000  Sound of Freedom

18        198,200,000  Radical

19        192,000,000  Shazam: Fury of the Gods

 

Hopefully Freddy can reach 400M with few competition this week.

 

 

[Purple Minion]

Wish barely sold half a million tickets, 525K to be exact. That's lower than Meet The Robinsons.

 

The Marvels reached 1.5M tickets, based on current drops it will become the first MCU movie with less than 2M viewers.

 

Really hope Tótem does well, it's a great movie. Papá o mamá is a local remake of a Spanish movie that could perform decently. Both open on Thursday. For the rest of the year it's Wonka and Aquaman. Could Migration be a surprise hit?

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

20 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

Really hope Tótem does well, it's a great movie. Papá o mamá is a local remake of a Spanish movie that could perform decently. Both open on Thursday. For the rest of the year it's Wonka and Aquaman. Could Migration be a surprise hit?

Tótem is going to be its distributor's widest release ever with 400+ screens so hopefully WOM catches it. H2 of 2023 has been from decent to great for local cinema and it would be awesome to end well on this one.

 

Wonka has surprisingly seen good metrics all along but presales have been somewhat lacking. We'll see if good reception is there and becomes another TGS/Jumanji. 

 

Migration is getting a strong push from Universal with ads everywhere including Cinépolis' spots right before every show this month.

 

Boh The Boy and the Heron and Godzilla Minus One are opening on December 28th with the former having a limited release on Christmas Day and tickets going on sale soon.

[Purple Minion]

No numbers yet for Renaissance but doesn't look like it opened on top. Totals available so far: Trolls $6.3M (great legs), Wish $3.6M (so so legs).

[Carlangonz]

16 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

No numbers yet for Renaissance but doesn't look like it opened on top. Totals available so far: Trolls $6.3M (great legs), Wish $3.6M (so so legs).

Should've been a rough weekend. Renaissance most likely went sub-$10M.

[Purple Minion]

Songbirds and Snakes $8.7M total. Still no info about who won the weekend.

[Carlangonz]

NOVEMBER 30 - DECEMBER 3 WEEKEND.

1. Napoleon - $24M/$86.8M (-50.72%)
2. Wish - $19M/$61.7M (-45.24%)
3. Papá o Mamá - $18M
4, Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $15.6M/$149.5M (-46.94%)
5. Thanksgiving - $9.9M
6. Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce - $5.7M
7. Radical - $3,3M/$203.9M (-52.86%)
8. Five Nights at Freddy's - $3.1M/$392.4M (-55.71%)
9. Digimon Adventure 02: The Beginning - $2.9M
10. The Marvels - $2.7M/$107.8M (-64%)

Atrocious week for everything and one of the lowest of the year. Yet Napoleon is on track to beat both Wish, The Marvels and Trolls 3 so there's another win for adult dramas this year.

Wish is looking to potentially go below Dial of Destiny as Disney's worst result of the year and 3rd worst ever for WDAS. Hunger Games still delivering decent numbers and may approach $10M but not above it.

As for new openers local Papá o Mamá did just ok but nothing outstanding and Tótem failed to nab Top 10 so most likely will be just a silent run among art-houses and big cities.

Renaissance as expected didn't make numbers as big as Eras Tour, Yet to Come or even BTS' Suga solo concert. It was a one weekend event at Cinepolis and Cinemex will keep it running in a few locations until Wednesday but will probably just round up to $6M.

The Marvels went real fast from No. 4 to No. 10 so will end up just on par with Blue Beetle. Is kinda nuts that after 2 months the second best result for Q4 after Freddy's has been Radical and even crazier there's nothing assured to top it; Aquaman is looking to make Fury of the Gods' numbers and Wonka/Migration combo could go either way.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

Tragic, them Marvels. It will be the first time a MCU movie doesn't make it to the yearly Top 20. At this rate, not even the Top 30!

 

So sad for Tótem, deserved better.

[Carlangonz]

Wonka rapidly accelerating on sales. Allocation is similar to that of Songbirds and Snakes so $5M should be the target for previews and $60M for the weekend. 

 

Aquaman started today but before doing any counting I'm expecting yet another BB/Marvels-level disaster. It's not pulling good numbers anywhere on engagement metrics. It may save face with holidays but still ugly.

[Carlangonz]

9 hours ago, Carlangonz said:

Wonka rapidly accelerating on sales. Allocation is similar to that of Songbirds and Snakes so $5M should be the target for previews and $60M for the weekend. 

WONKA (T-0.5 HOURS) - WEDNDESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy
Wonka	1420	3285	43.23%

Comps at the same point before launch

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Transformers	2657	5407	49.14%	53.44%	$4.92M
Hunger Games	1792	3567	50.24%	79.24%	$4.52M

As Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes it'll be capped by lack of shows and in theory should act less front-loaded. In theory is a big *asterisk* because honestly Warner isn't giving it much more screens for the rest of the weekend and keeping it with 1,200-1,500 screens which is way less than those 2,500+ of the two comps and below Wish's 2,400 screens two weeks ago. 

If audiences respond well (reviews are quite glowing) then we should see it improving by Sat/Sun and offsetting that initial lack of allocation. 

2005's Charlie and the Chocolate Factory adjusts to $130M which is just a perfect target for Mr Wonka.

 

[Carlangonz]

Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom first 12 hours of sales - 33/19,059

 

Only comp would be The Marvels which sold 49 tickets and 35 without accounting sales for midnight shows.

 

Because of the holidays, Aquaman will open on Wednesday (20th) without midnights or previews. 

 

Of course holiday pattern may change things but still won't save it from being another disaster for the genre which even the most miraculous scenario would be just a bit above Fury of the Gods' numbers ($190M).

 

After all, two concert events from BTS and Taylor Swift along with an indie horror film (Talk to Me) and an anime special release (Demon Slayer: TTSV) are looking to be much more compelling successes than 3 of the 6 CBM releases this year. Consume patterns are indeed changing which is something astonishing to witness considering this has been a market that has always been welcoming to superheroes. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

Napoleon may end up grossing more than Marvels. The latter reached 1.6M tickets and I think that's it, just 13% of the first movie's audience.

 

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory sold 1,995,598 tickets, hope Wonka can reach that threshold.

[keysersoze123]

18 hours ago, Carlangonz said:

Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom first 12 hours of sales - 33/19,059

 

Only comp would be The Marvels which sold 49 tickets and 35 without accounting sales for midnight shows.

 

Because of the holidays, Aquaman will open on Wednesday (20th) without midnights or previews. 

 

Of course holiday pattern may change things but still won't save it from being another disaster for the genre which even the most miraculous scenario would be just a bit above Fury of the Gods' numbers ($190M).

 

After all, two concert events from BTS and Taylor Swift along with an indie horror film (Talk to Me) and an anime special release (Demon Slayer: TTSV) are looking to be much more compelling successes than 3 of the 6 CBM releases this year. Consume patterns are indeed changing which is something astonishing to witness considering this has been a market that has always been welcoming to superheroes. 

That is terrible. I thought Mexico would be among the markets to do better than norm. This is DOA globally at this rate. 

[Carlangonz]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is terrible. I thought Mexico would be among the markets to do better than norm. This is DOA globally at this rate. 

Even among CBM-type communities I'm seeing a lot of fatigue. After The Flash a lot of people started to mock on all Blue Beetle/Marvels/Aquaman expecting on them t be disasters and after one's fiasco the mockery increases on the next one.

Seems like it's a rather generalized feeling among audiences.

 

Anyway, Wonka is in fact getting more screens for Friday compared to Thursday and will probably continue to do so throughout the weekend. 

 

[Carlangonz]

Don't have any numbers but Wonka still increasing on shows. One of my locals went from 4 on Thursday to 9 for Saturday. 

 

May be climbing close to Elemental's $80M which would be the best start since Five Nights at Freddy's.

[Purple Minion]

$5.2M OW for Wonka, an excellent 90M lc opening. 2nd  highest OS market.

[Carlangonz]

DECEMBER 8-11 WEEKEND.

1. Wonka - $84M/$89.4M
2. Napoleon - $12.4M/$107,3M (-48.33%)
3. Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $9.7M/$165.8M (-37.82%)
4. Papá o Mamá - $9.2M/$35M (-48.89%)
5. Wish - $8M/$74.7M (-57.89%)
6. It Lives Inside - $4.4M
7. Silent Night - $3.7M
8. Migration - $3.4M
9. Thanksgiving - $2.9M/$16.9M (-70.71%)
10. Radical - $2.3M/$206.3M (-30.30%)

Great for Wonka and great walk-ins for previews which ended up a bit higher than what comps signaled. It is the best opening for the market since Five Nights at Freddy's and with holidays ahead may end up nearing $300M.

Napoleon is doing just okay and at in a few hours shall be surpassing both Blue Beetle and The Marvels. Hunger Games is now benefiting from spillover from young audiences attending Wonka and its splendid wom.

Wish and Thanksgiving are being completely rejected. The latter will make just over $1M USD despite notable efforts from Sony to make it work and the former will join to other non-documentaries from Disney to go under $100M like this year's Dial of Destiny, Solo, Tomorrowland and A Wrinkle in Time.

Migration held early access during Sunday but they went quite poor. We'll see if positive early WOM takes effect once it opens this Thursday but not looking like it'll breakout like Wonka, at least not during opening weekend.

Radical is now leaving the Top 10 having surpassed $200M and outliving several titles from Freddy to The Marvels and Trolls.

[Carlangonz]

At T-10, Aquaman had sold 369/18,906 tickets for opening day which translates to better initial pace than The Marvels which was at 285/25,462.

 

If can keep it up then it'll be more akin to Shazam 2 than Blue Bettle but nevertheless an underwhelming result.  

 

I have to point out as well that T-10 for The Marvels was a Monday whereas for Aquaman was a Sunday so numbers will be a bit tricky to compare.

 

Boy and the Heron started sales last week and they started well but mostly contained to big cities. Godzilla: Minus One starts in a few hours but expecting better numbers from it. Hopefully both can replicate their DOM breakout.

[Purple Minion]

1.2M tickets for Wonka, very good. Nice to see a decent hold by a local movie, pity that Tótem never made it to the Top 10.

 

Those numbers for Wish are something else, is Disney+ affecting the BO performance that bad?

 

[Carlangonz]

On 12/12/2023 at 2:57 AM, Purple Minion said:

Those numbers for Wish are something else, is Disney+ affecting the BO performance that bad?

Disney+ has hurt the brand but overall I think the brand has seen damage by their productions getting cheapened by overwhelming quantity and a lack of quality. 

 

Is pretty much similar as US because Disney is probably the only studio of which people recognize its brands and are aware all of them (Marvel, Pixar, Lucasfilm) are under the same umbrella. So I guess is a strange perception effect where results over one of them affects the others. Kinda like what is happening with SH overall too.