mexico Mexico Box Office | Inside Out 2 now #3 all-time, $82M; loud $4.7M OW for A Quiet Place: Day One

[Purple Minion]

More info about Believer, from Deadline: second-best start of a Blumhouse film post-pandemic. It’s in line with The Curse of La Llorona, and more than double Scream VI, M3GAN and Smile.

 

Some totals: The Nun 2 $21.6M, about 375M lc and positioning as #6 of the year; Paw Patrol $4.5M, The Creator $1.6M, 49% drop.

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Shanks]

1. The Exorcist: Believer -  $67.5M
2. Paw Patrol - $23.6M //  $80.4M
3. Saw X - $17M //  $67.2M
4. Nun II - $8.6M  // $373.4M
5. Creator - $8.3M  //  $28.8M
6. SobreviviendoMisXV - $8M  //  $52.2M 
7. Sound of Freedom - $3.6M  // $208M

 

[Purple Minion]

According to the latest numbers by CANACINE, Gran Turismo reached 136.1M lc and 1.9M tickets sold! Vrooom!

 

Well well, Believer grossing more than Saw X after just one weekend. Supernatural rules this market.

 

 

[Carlangonz]

On 10/4/2023 at 3:25 PM, Carlangonz said:

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (T-9 Days)

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	ATP	Total sales in $
The Eras Tour	130	14519	24196	60.01%	$220.61	$3,203,039.10

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (T-2 Days)

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9	ATP	Total sales in $
The Eras Tour	131	15147	24268	62.42%	+4,33%	$221.71	$3,358,268.50

 

Yeah this is as front-loaded as pretty much most of these musical events. There was a show added for a VIP theater on Friday night which inmediately filled so this is going to definitely skew big cities; out of the sample is among main Mexico City where occupancy is o/u 80% but Metro Area is abour 45%-50%.

Sunday still stagnant in most places so I don't know if walk-ins may give it a final push so likely Saturday will remain its biggest day. I wonder how it would've performed without Sunday but more screens on Fri-Sat.

ATP is going up in the sample because better sales for VIP shows but because of it and less VIP screens on 2nd and 3rd tier cities I'm expecting it to be lower.

Sticking with mid-$70M but could be lower. Hard to tell if walk-ins are going to ramp up because unlike other comps like BTS or Coldplay, shows and seats are actually there on Sunday and with Cinemex and smaller chains as well.

 

[Carlangonz]

It's been just an hour of sales for Freddy at Cinépolis and 

Universal messed up with screens

[Carlangonz]

On 7/5/2023 at 8:00 PM, Carlangonz said:

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR - 0.5 HOURS

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Growth from T-6 Hours	Occupancy
Insidious 5	19	2153	2614	39.81%	82.36%

Destroyed in less than 6 hours by FNAF so I guess I'll go without any direct comp

[Purple Minion]

That's crazy about Freddy, an autumn breakout will be very welcome!!!!

 

The Equalizer telly series was quite popular in the 80's, but Denzel's movies haven't enjoyed the same traction.

 

Movie	OW lc	OW audience	Total lc	Total audience
Equalizer 2	MXN 26,545,448	454,251	MXN 70,423,838	1,325,070
Equalizer	MXN 17,689,355	329,707	MXN 47,948,606	1,033,956

 

I want to believe it will pass movie #2 at least in lc gross.

[Carlangonz]

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREEDY'S (PREVIEWS) - FIRST 6 HOURS (T-13 DAYS)

 

Two theaters are lagging so that info is missing from data.

 

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy
5 Nights at Freddy's	1999	3911	51.11%
Insidious 5 (T-7)	58	2036	2.85%
Spiderverse (T-14)	2203	17820	12.36%
Barbie (T-21)	1312	20805	6.31%
Fast X (T-14)	825	15448	5.34%

Some clarifications:

• Everything except for Insidious 5 was taken until 12 hours of sales. Also in the case of Barbie and Spiderverse they were taken for the full opening day since they didn't held previews.
• I'm dropping Insidious 5 for maybe a week but taking it back on the final days because I'm interested on how pace correct things. This year horror has always started slow but accelerated incredibly on final days so Freddy should be the exception.
• I'll keep Spiderverse because I'm expecting it to be closer on upfront demand and screen allocation as well. Barbie and Fast X are being dropped definitely but I just wanted to use them to show how massive these first hours were.

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

6 hours ago, Carlangonz said:

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREEDY'S (PREVIEWS) - FIRST 6 HOURS (T-13 DAYS)

 

Two theaters are lagging so that info is missing from data.

 

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy
5 Nights at Freddy's	1999	3911	51.11%
Insidious 5 (T-7)	58	2036	2.85%
Spiderverse (T-14)	2203	17820	12.36%
Barbie (T-21)	1312	20805	6.31%
Fast X (T-14)	825	15448	5.34%

First 12 hours with all remaining shows included

 

3475/5045 - 68.8% 

 

Well this may be the best or second biggest Day One for anything this year excluding musical events otherwise it would be below BTS' Yet to Come and The Eras Tour.

 

Apparently Cinépolis didn't exclude Wednesday Discount for previews and a lot of cheap tickets are taking down the ATP so can't really tell how it could go.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

$1.8M OW for Equalizer 3, higher in lc than movie #2 but not by much. No info yet for Eras Tour.

 

Other totals: Exorcist: Believer $6.7M, around 120M lc; Paw Patrol $5.7M.

 

Edited October 15, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Purple Minion]

No numbers on The Eras, only that it was a #1 opener. 

[Carlangonz]

11 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

No numbers on The Eras, only that it was a #1 opener. 

Guesstimate but may pull through $5M/$90M+ depending on how far Sunday goes.

[Shanks]

1. Eras Tour - $93.8M
2. The Exorcist: Believer -  $36.6M  //  $124.6M
3. Equalizer 3 - $31.2M
4. Paw Patrol - $15.6M //  $101M
5. Saw X - $10.5M //  $83.48M
6. Sobreviviendo Mis XV - $5.28M  //  $59.8M 
7. Nun II - $5M  // $381M
8. Creator - $4.6M  //  $36M
9. Gran Tursimo - $2.2M //  $139.1M
10. Max - $2M

[Purple Minion]

@Carlangonz you were spot on with your Eras prediction! Nice $5.3M opening, although lower than BTS' gig movies in lc.

 

Exorcist > Equalizer, wow. Another week on the Top 10 for Gran Turismo 😁

[Carlangonz]

On 10/12/2023 at 3:34 PM, Carlangonz said:

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREEDY'S (PREVIEWS) - FIRST 6 HOURS (T-13 DAYS)

 

Two theaters are lagging so that info is missing from data.

 

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy
5 Nights at Freddy's	1999	3911	51.11%
Insidious 5 (T-7)	58	2036	2.85%
Spiderverse (T-14)	2203	17820	12.36%
Barbie (T-21)	1312	20805	6.31%
Fast X (T-14)	825	15448	5.34%

 

 

On 10/12/2023 at 10:18 PM, Carlangonz said:

First 12 hours with all remaining shows included

 

3475/5045 - 68.8% 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S (PREVIEWS) - T-9 DAYS

 

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth on sales from T-13	Increase on seats
Five Nights at Freddy's	4504	6075	71.14%	+29.61%	+1029

 

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy
Spiderverse (T-10)	6663	19284	34.55%
Fast X (T-9)	3045	17085	17.82%
The Flash (T-9)	1612	11682	13.8%
GOTG 3 (T-0)	6643	12606	52.69%

 

We're already seeing an increase on shows from several locations but still occupancy remains crazy high for a release with such time before release.

Decided to keep Fast X comp given I don't have many previews to work with but still not doing comps in $ until maybe T-5. It's just matter of hours before it beats Flash's final count (4,812 at T-0.5 hours)

Some shows were just added during Sunday so we'll see how it'll sustain pace and if theaters get additional shows. So far within the sample there are two locations that haven't got more shows and they're over 95% full.

About ATP, Cinepolis has already corrected it so no more Discount Wedesday although Cinemex is keeping it for some locations. Also no IMAX, 4D or Dolby shows; only regular PLFs.

Even if front-loaded this is massive and other chains are showing the same. Unlike other markets and because love for horror in here seems like even if GA doesn't know the property buzz can eventually catch it. So we're in for another breakout, Nun II's $150M is a good target but no ceiling atm.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

@Carlangonz you were spot on with your Eras prediction! Nice $5.3M opening, although lower than BTS' gig movies in lc.

Always tricky but yeah, Taylor and BTS are way ahead of anyone else, the former wins in admissions and the latter in lc:

• BTS: Permission to Dance on Stage (Single day event): $120M/380K admissions across 1,970 screens. 
• Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (Fri-Sun event): $93.8M/420K admissions across 1,355 screens
• BTS: Yet to Come (Wed-Sat event): $109.1M/340K admissions across 624 screens

Apparently other cities overperformed Mexico City (particularly Metro Area) and it shows on my sample.

Great results for both Exorcist and Saw X. October needed a relief between them and Nun's great staying power. Jigsaw may fall short of $100M but would be incredible to reach it for the first time in the saga's history.

Wonder if Equalizer 3 was affected by adults picking any of the horror options instead but overall not bad; on par with John Wick 3 unadjusted which adds up considering John Wick plays better with younger audiences.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

On 10/16/2023 at 2:15 PM, Carlangonz said:

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S (PREVIEWS) - T-9 DAYS

 

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth on sales from T-13	Increase on seats
Five Nights at Freddy's	4504	6075	71.14%	+29.61%	+1029

 

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy
Spiderverse (T-10)	6663	19284	34.55%
Fast X (T-9)	3045	17085	17.82%
The Flash (T-9)	1612	11682	13.8%
GOTG 3 (T-0)	6643	12606	52.69%

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S (PREVIEWS) - T-7 DAYS

 

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth on sales	Increase on seats
5 Nights at Freddy's	5144	7135	72.1%	+14.21%	640

 

Comps at the same point before release

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-7	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X (T-7)	3970	17153	23.14%	+30.38%	129,57	$47.94
The Flash (T-7)	1924	12276	15.67%	+19.35%	267,36	$43.58

 

Comps at T-0

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
The Flash (T-0)	4812	11053	43.54%	106.9%	$17.1
GOTG 3 (T-0)	6643	12606	52.69%	77.43%	$18.58

 

As expected pace isn't going as amazing as comps but theaters still continue to add shows in order to meet demand although I'm expecting them to slow down by now or even completely stop. Still as latest shows were recently added I'm pretty sure we'll finish with occupancy o/u 85% which is above final counts for Fast X (60%), Insidious 5 (82%) and as shown; Flash and Guardians 3 as well.

In a mix of overwhelming demand and lack of supply I'm leaning on high 10s to low 20s for previews on this one which would be on par with Guardians 3 which had better walk-ins due to more screens and shows.

 

WEDNESDAY PREVIEWS + THURSDAY OPENING

 

Day	Number of shows	Seats sold	Total seats	Occupancy
Wednesday (T-7)	34	5144	7135	72.10%
Thursday (T-8)	54	3406	11876	28.68%
Total	88	8550	19011	44.97%

 

Comps at the same time before release. None of them held previews but rather full opening Thursday.

 

Day	Number of shows	Seats sold	Total seats	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Spiderverse (T-8)	84	7558	19284	39.19%	113.13%	$49.78
Barbie (T-8)	106	10456	23117	45.23%	81.77%	$87.09

 

I'm using these ones because allocation in the end ends up somewhat similar and may make it for lack of screens in the case of Freddy's. The fact that is outpacing Spiderverse and this close to Barbie is quite astonishing and even though will be losing ground to Barbie in coming days that Spiderverse comp will get interesting as time goes by because by the end they may end up very close in shows and screens.

 

Because of its core audience is still young FSS are going equally strong and spreading demand so don't think this will be much front-loaded. I do have to mention ATP calculation is going to be kinda tricky as this one won't get neither of 3D, IMAX or 4D and Dolby remains a question mark so will deflate a lot.

Another quick note: this is seemingly performing better in Metro Area than Mexico City itself. Theaters where is performing better are located in urban but centric areas or suburbs which are populated mostly by families, like following examples:

• Buenavista - 70.5% and 71.9% occupancy for Wednesday and Thursday respectively
• Las Americas - 88.8% and 33.3% occupancy for Wed and Thu respectively

On the other hand I'm seeing theaters located in urban and upper class neighborhoods that are populated mostly by single people in their 20s-30s or families with kids under 10 where the movie is up to a point underperforming. This will definitely skew young but if it turns out to be good or entertaining enough will get little by little all those older audiences who don't know the property and have no rush to see it will join the party as well and drive walk-ins.

 

Let's see how pace sustains over the following and by Monday once theaters get their full schedules but I'm thinking high 30s to mid 40s opening day incl previews and $170M-$200M opening week which may very well be the third highest opening weekend for a horror title only below The Nun and It: Chapter One.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

Any buzz about Radical? Eugenio Derbez has the highest grossing local movie, but no idea how this one is tracking.

 

Killers of the Flower Moon also opens today. The Scorsersverse has been more or less consistent if we exclude the limited release of The Irishman. Reaching 1M audience would be a good result.

 

Movie	OW LC	OW Aud	Total LC	Total Aud
The Wolf of Wall Street	$15,516,084	242,892	$76,447,656	1,397,826
Shutter Island	$10,675,628	211,774	$53,896,773	1,141,169
The Aviator	$13,624,977	342,492	$50,048,008	1,370,165
Gangs of New York	$12,390,685	312,453	$49,878,849	1,384,198
Hugo	$10,689,657	159,546	$42,546,647	676,380
The Departed	$9,880,081	216,567	$39,783,336	975,812
The Irishman	$235,196	3,244	$610,586	7,914

[Carlangonz]

On 10/18/2023 at 5:16 PM, Carlangonz said:

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S (PREVIEWS) - T-7 DAYS

 

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth on sales	Increase on seats
5 Nights at Freddy's	5144	7135	72.1%	+14.21%	640

 

Comps at the same point before release

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-7	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X (T-7)	3970	17153	23.14%	+30.38%	129,57	$47.94
The Flash (T-7)	1924	12276	15.67%	+19.35%	267,36	$43.58

 

Comps at T-0

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
The Flash (T-0)	4812	11053	43.54%	106.9%	$17.1
GOTG 3 (T-0)	6643	12606	52.69%	77.43%	$18.58

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S (PREVIEWS) - T-5 DAYS

 

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth on sales	Increase on seats
Five Nights at Freddy's	5611	7135	78.64%	+9.08%	0

 

Comps at the same point before release

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-7	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X (T-5)	5098	17153	29.72%	+28.41%	110,06%	$40.72M

 

Comps at T-0

Title	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
The Flash (T-0)	4812	11053	43.54%	116.6%	$18.66M
GOTG 3 (T-0)	6643	12606	52.69%	84.46%	$20.27M

 

I didn't get data for Flash on T-5 so excluded from comps at the same point before release. Pace is now starting to shrink as there hasn't been more allocation and occupancy is growing mostly from the latest shows added. I'm lowering my expectations to mid 10s for previews due to lack of seats for walk-ins even in smaller and independent chains where there are even midnight shows.

Two theaters among the sample have surpassed 90% occupancy and other two are over 80%. This is Marvel-levels of fan-rush.

 

On 10/18/2023 at 5:16 PM, Carlangonz said:

WEDNESDAY PREVIEWS + THURSDAY OPENING

 

Day	Number of shows	Seats sold	Total seats	Occupancy
Wednesday (T-7)	34	5144	7135	72.10%
Thursday (T-8)	54	3406	11876	28.68%
Total	88	8550	19011	44.97%

 

Comps at the same time before release. None of them held previews but rather full opening Thursday.

 

Day	Number of shows	Seats sold	Total seats	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Spiderverse (T-8)	84	7558	19284	39.19%	113.13%	$49.78
Barbie (T-8)	106	10456	23117	45.23%	81.77%	$87.09

WEDNESDAY PREVIEWS + THURSDAY OPENING

 

Day	Number of shows	Seats sold	Total seats	Occupancy	Growth from T-8
Wednesday (T-5)	34	5611	7135	78.64%	+9,08
Thursday (T-6)	54	3690	11876	31.07%	+8,34
Total	88	9301	19011	48.92%	+8,78

 

Comps at the same point before release

 

Day	Number of shows	Seats sold	Total seats	Occupancy	Growth fom T-8	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Spiderverse (T-6)	84	8692	19284	45.07%	+15%	107.01%	$47.08M
Barbie (T-6)	106	12557	23117	54.32%	+20.09%	74.07%	$78.88M

 

Thursday is losing pace as well especially in Metro Area where matinees and early afternoon shows aren't particularly hot and is getting hurt by lack of dubbed shows on a later schedule. Two theaters have topped 70% occupancy compared to one for Spiderverse and none for Barbie at the same point.

I've confirmed and this is getting both regular PLFs and Dolby shows so it's releasing similar as Barbie: no 3D, IMAX or 4D so actually lesser than expected impact on ATP as most of its fanbase and target is already up for adult prices.

Pace from T-6 to T-3 shall be interesting as Spiderverse decreased and Barbie increased. I'm thinking this one decreases so it's up to final allocation to see how much more can sustain.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

On 10/19/2023 at 4:11 AM, Purple Minion said:

Any buzz about Radical? Eugenio Derbez has the highest grossing local movie, but no idea how this one is tracking.

 

Sales have being rather strong. I was expecting somewhere o/u $30M but could go higher.

Killers is a rough bet as it seems like there's only going 600-700 screens with a tight schedule so maybe $15M.