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We're in the Endgame Now | Week 33

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For Wide Releases in the upcoming weeks I think you can put:

 

Fall (Already Added) (August 12)

Mack and Rita (August 12)

Bodies, Bodies, Bodies (August 12-Wide)

Beast (August 19)

The Invitation (August 26)

Three Thousand Years of Longing (August 26)

Honk For Jesus,Save Your Soul (September 2)

Gigi and Nate (Potentially Wide Release) (September 2)

Spider Man No Way Home (Re-Release) (September 2)

 

But, other than that its going to be a quiet period until Halloween Kills arrives.

 

 

Edited by Goldenhour36
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I wonder how well an entry would fare this week using a flat drop % for all week 3+ holdovers, and a different one for the week 2 movies ...

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48 minutes ago, Goldenhour36 said:

Does the deadline closes before early Friday mornings because I was not able to get my predictions in?

Deadline closes Friday at 5:55am Pacific time zone

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19 hours ago, M37 said:

I wonder how well an entry would fare this week using a flat drop % for all week 3+ holdovers, and a different one for the week 2 movies ...

Pretty well

Spoiler

Just make sure to choose the right flat drop 👀

 

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28 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Seems I play the pessimist this week. Should fail or succeed in spectacular fashion

I started to play the optimist again, then remembered how badly I got burned last week and turned pessimistic, before revising this morning to something in between ... and somehow ended up close to the Derby average for all but 2-3 movies

Bill Murray Reaction GIF

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5 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Seems I play the pessimist this week. Should fail or succeed in spectacular fashion

 

4 hours ago, M37 said:

I started to play the optimist again, then remembered how badly I got burned last week and turned pessimistic, before revising this morning to something in between ... and somehow ended up close to the Derby average for all but 2-3 movies

 

 

While I could (and probably will) end up being wrong, I expect this weekend to be the first of noticeable larger jumps now that summer has ended for nearly all school districts. 

 

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1 hour ago, In XXR We Trust said:

 

 

While I could (and probably will) end up being wrong, I expect this weekend to be the first of noticeable larger jumps now that summer has ended for nearly all school districts. 

 

The effect is usually more staggered/stair-stepped through August, but I’m not sure how many schools go back on which week this year (mine just started, thankfully

 

I just couldn’t decide how much weekend will be rise above daily trend: a little (pessimistic), a lot (optimistic), or something in the middle. Can make a reasonable case for any of those outcomes, and it may not even be consistent across the titles 

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1 hour ago, M37 said:

The effect is usually more staggered/stair-stepped through August, but I’m not sure how many schools go back on which week this year (mine just started, thankfully

 

I just couldn’t decide how much weekend will be rise above daily trend: a little (pessimistic), a lot (optimistic), or something in the middle. Can make a reasonable case for any of those outcomes, and it may not even be consistent across the titles 

 

For reference, here's how the holdovers (not including BT or ES) increased over last weekend from their Thursday numbers last week...

 

Super Pets = +393%

Nope = +443%

Minions = +387%
Thor = +440%

TGM = +478%

Elvis = +414%

Crawdads = +385%

 

Now, if all of these held exactly as it last weekend we'd be looking at the following for this weekend. 

 

Super Pets = $6.02M

Nope = $5M

Minions = $4.05M

Thor = $4.54M
TGM = $5.44M

Elvis = $2.32M
Crawdads = $3.69M

 

Since I believe this particular weekend will have a more marked upward trajectory over last weekend (no major releases + less summer-centric weekday/weekend skew), I expect most of these to increase 50-100 percentage points over last weekend. Due to PLF and theater expansion, I expect TGM to hit an increase of 125-175 percentage points.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by In XXR We Trust
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15 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Upcoming weekend:

Dragon Ball

Beast

Bullet Train

Top Gun

Pets

Thor

Minions

Nope

Crawdads

Bodiesx3

Ugh … Bodies^3 is going to be a tricky one, but almost have to include it. So yeah, that’s the list for next week, no notes

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16 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Upcoming weekend:

Dragon Ball

Beast

Bullet Train

Top Gun

Pets

Thor

Minions

Nope

Crawdads

Bodiesx3

 

Current thoughts...

 

11

9

6.8
5.9

4.5
3.6

3.45

3.45

2.75

1.7

 

 

 

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