ChipDerby Posted August 9, 2022 Share Posted August 9, 2022 Y'all are going to have to help me these next 2 months or so. Because I'm not going to be sure which films to put in since it's about to be desolate. This week I added Fall, because I saw a TV spot for it. https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldenhour36 Posted August 9, 2022 Share Posted August 9, 2022 (edited) For Wide Releases in the upcoming weeks I think you can put: Fall (Already Added) (August 12) Mack and Rita (August 12) Bodies, Bodies, Bodies (August 12-Wide) Beast (August 19) The Invitation (August 26) Three Thousand Years of Longing (August 26) Honk For Jesus,Save Your Soul (September 2) Gigi and Nate (Potentially Wide Release) (September 2) Spider Man No Way Home (Re-Release) (September 2) But, other than that its going to be a quiet period until Halloween Kills arrives. Edited August 9, 2022 by Goldenhour36 Added Dates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 9, 2022 Share Posted August 9, 2022 I'll go back to making suggestion posts on Mon. Probably would have gone with bodies bodies bodies this weekend but fall is fine too 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 I wonder how well an entry would fare this week using a flat drop % for all week 3+ holdovers, and a different one for the week 2 movies ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldenhour36 Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 Does the deadline closes before early Friday mornings because I was not able to get my predictions in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 48 minutes ago, Goldenhour36 said: Does the deadline closes before early Friday mornings because I was not able to get my predictions in? Deadline closes Friday at 5:55am Pacific time zone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 19 hours ago, M37 said: I wonder how well an entry would fare this week using a flat drop % for all week 3+ holdovers, and a different one for the week 2 movies ... Pretty well Spoiler Just make sure to choose the right flat drop 👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 Seems I play the pessimist this week. Should fail or succeed in spectacular fashion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, Legion By Night said: Seems I play the pessimist this week. Should fail or succeed in spectacular fashion I started to play the optimist again, then remembered how badly I got burned last week and turned pessimistic, before revising this morning to something in between ... and somehow ended up close to the Derby average for all but 2-3 movies 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 5 hours ago, Legion By Night said: Seems I play the pessimist this week. Should fail or succeed in spectacular fashion 4 hours ago, M37 said: I started to play the optimist again, then remembered how badly I got burned last week and turned pessimistic, before revising this morning to something in between ... and somehow ended up close to the Derby average for all but 2-3 movies While I could (and probably will) end up being wrong, I expect this weekend to be the first of noticeable larger jumps now that summer has ended for nearly all school districts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 1 hour ago, In XXR We Trust said: While I could (and probably will) end up being wrong, I expect this weekend to be the first of noticeable larger jumps now that summer has ended for nearly all school districts. The effect is usually more staggered/stair-stepped through August, but I’m not sure how many schools go back on which week this year (mine just started, thankfully I just couldn’t decide how much weekend will be rise above daily trend: a little (pessimistic), a lot (optimistic), or something in the middle. Can make a reasonable case for any of those outcomes, and it may not even be consistent across the titles 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, M37 said: The effect is usually more staggered/stair-stepped through August, but I’m not sure how many schools go back on which week this year (mine just started, thankfully I just couldn’t decide how much weekend will be rise above daily trend: a little (pessimistic), a lot (optimistic), or something in the middle. Can make a reasonable case for any of those outcomes, and it may not even be consistent across the titles For reference, here's how the holdovers (not including BT or ES) increased over last weekend from their Thursday numbers last week... Super Pets = +393% Nope = +443% Minions = +387% Thor = +440% TGM = +478% Elvis = +414% Crawdads = +385% Now, if all of these held exactly as it last weekend we'd be looking at the following for this weekend. Super Pets = $6.02M Nope = $5M Minions = $4.05M Thor = $4.54M TGM = $5.44M Elvis = $2.32M Crawdads = $3.69M Since I believe this particular weekend will have a more marked upward trajectory over last weekend (no major releases + less summer-centric weekday/weekend skew), I expect most of these to increase 50-100 percentage points over last weekend. Due to PLF and theater expansion, I expect TGM to hit an increase of 125-175 percentage points. Edited August 12, 2022 by In XXR We Trust Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Not getting there with those Easter and Fall Sats. Looks like Idaho vs fairy mostly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 The real winner this is week is Derby Average 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 27 minutes ago, M37 said: The real winner this is week is Derby Average The real loser is diff from avg ☠️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Poor showing from me. Ah well, it happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katnisscinnaplex Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Probably should have thought about Fall for more than a second. Other than that not too bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Upcoming weekend: Dragon Ball Beast Bullet Train Top Gun Pets Thor Minions Nope Crawdads Bodiesx3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, Legion By Night said: Upcoming weekend: Dragon Ball Beast Bullet Train Top Gun Pets Thor Minions Nope Crawdads Bodiesx3 Ugh … Bodies^3 is going to be a tricky one, but almost have to include it. So yeah, that’s the list for next week, no notes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, Legion By Night said: Upcoming weekend: Dragon Ball Beast Bullet Train Top Gun Pets Thor Minions Nope Crawdads Bodiesx3 Current thoughts... 11 9 6.8 5.9 4.5 3.6 3.45 3.45 2.75 1.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
