Sophie Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 (edited) I'm just curious in taking some inventory and seeing what other people's opinions on each movie's chances are. Sorry if this thread doesn't belong here. So far we've got 6. These are the ones left and the percentage chance that I think they'll get there: Moana: 95% Joker: 90% Mufasa: 80% Venom: 45% Wicked: 40% Sonic: 35% Beetlejuice Beetlejuice: 20% Gladiator 2: 10% I think it would be cool to see the whole top 10 above half a billion and it would be cool to see the entire top 10 be Hollywood films for the first time since 2019. Edited August 4 by Sophie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madhuvan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Wicked has more chance than Venom easily imo. If Wicked gets great reception, even Moana storm won't stop it. Plus it will become automatic anti Disney choice in Holidays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Maybe Moana if everything falls into place and those streaming metrics really are reflected in the box office take, but I don't see anything else reaching that milestone this year. I don't think "anti-Disney" is a hook for wicked. If anything it's the most Disney looking movie the rest of the year that isn't actually from Disney. I don't see it hitting 500m even in most optimal circumstances but the smallest inkling of a chance it might have would be if it's a quality hit with audiences and Moana isn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Deetz Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 This domestic or worldwide? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Oh if it's worldwide then I yeah I do think most of those movies have a pretty good shot. Gladiator should be way higher though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Youngstar Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 3 minutes ago, Eric is Trapped said: This domestic or worldwide? has to be worldwide, otherwise the 6 movies that already made 500M wouldn't make sense. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophie Posted August 4 Author Share Posted August 4 Yes I mean total gross ofc. Not domestic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Moana and Joker are definitely doing it, but I think Moana has a slightly higher chance of missing since animated movies rely on legs usually and the quality might not be too high. Mufasa surely as well, Venom too (hard to see it missing when the last installment passed the mark w/o China in a Covid market). Sonic I think will get there thanks to the holidays, Gladiator I’m big on so I think it will do it. Beetlejuice probably not unless International markets come out for it. Wicked maybe has a 10% chance, I think it has a similar problem as Beetlejuice (not well-known outside Anglosphere) but I give it a lesser chance since it will be much smaller domestically Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 1. Dune Part Two 2. Kung Fu Panda 4 3. Godzilla x Kong 4. Despicable Me 4 5. Inside Out 2 6. Deadpool 3 I predict: (numbers pulled off the top of my head calculated on nothing but vibes) 7. Joker 2 - 800M 8. Gladiator 2 - 550M 9. Mufasa - 800M I'm 50/50 on Moana 2, I think it will definitely underperform, but whether it drops below 500M, i'm not sure either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 44 minutes ago, Flip said: Moana and Joker are definitely doing it, but I think Moana has a slightly higher chance of missing since animated movies rely on legs usually and the quality might not be too high. Mufasa surely as well, Venom too (hard to see it missing when the last installment passed the mark w/o China in a Covid market). Sonic I think will get there thanks to the holidays, Gladiator I’m big on so I think it will do it. Beetlejuice probably not unless International markets come out for it. Wicked maybe has a 10% chance, I think it has a similar problem as Beetlejuice (not well-known outside Anglosphere) but I give it a lesser chance since it will be much smaller domestically Venom 2 didn't miss out on China because of Covid. It got banned in China because of its "anti-China" subject matter. I would assume that Venom 3 also will be rejected by China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 hours ago, Avatree said: Venom 2 didn't miss out on China because of Covid. It got banned in China because of its "anti-China" subject matter. I would assume that Venom 3 also will be rejected by China. It got banned because China was strict on Hollywood 2021-2022. Now China approves pretty much everything, even stuff like Deadpool. I think it’ll release there but have a big drop from the 1st one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Beetlejuice, Joker, Venom, Gladiator 2, Moana 2, Sonic, and Mufasa have chances. Last year Wonka was the only film to make >500m after Summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
