South Korea Box Office

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Elemental gained over 300 screens today compared with its start yesterday. MI7 actually lost 29. I don't wanna get too ahead of myself but it seems like a recovery is on the cards and Elemental is being rewarded for its superior per showing average.

[upriser7]

Admissions start - Saturday (as of 3AM)

 

MI7 - 240,638 (+196% YD)

Elemental - 112,011 (+273% YD, -13% LW)

Edited July 14, 2023 by upriser7

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

22 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

Admissions start - Saturday (as of 3AM)

 

MI7 - 240,638 (+196% YD)

Elemental - 112,011 (+286% YD, -13% LW)

You're gonna want to compare this with yesterdays 3am numbers, not the 1am ones since there's still people prebooking saturday tickets early in the morning that get added onto the pile. I think Elemental was at around 30k at 3am yesterday so the comp is still around +273%. From now until around 9am nothing really changes much since theatres aren't open and not many people are prebooking in the middle of the night.

[upriser7]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

You're gonna want to compare this with yesterdays 3am numbers, not the 1am ones since there's still people prebooking saturday tickets early in the morning that get added onto the pile. I think Elemental was at around 30k at 3am yesterday so the comp is still around +273%. From now until around 9am nothing really changes much since theatres aren't open and not many people are prebooking in the middle of the night.

Oh, I thought nothing much would have changed between 1AM-3AM..so I was comparing it with yesterday's 1AM numbers.

[pepsa]

Numbers at 1AM where 108(.5ish)k

[TalismanRing]

 

July 15, 2023 (Saturday - 9AM)

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Mission: Impossible	Jul 12, 2023	$2,032,673 ($8,338,355)	250,905 (1,041,570)	2,250	61.69%
2		Elemental	Jun 14, 2023	$883,139 ($30,116,498)	116,925 (3,878,883)	1,223	26.8%

[TalismanRing]

July 15, 2023 (Saturday - 11AM)

Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1   Mission: Impossible Jul 12, 2023 $2,275,252 ($8,580,934) 282,995 (1,073,660) 2,265 61.15% 2   Elemental   Jun 14, 2023 $1,022,438 ($30,255,796) 135,693 (3,897,651) 1,236 27.47%

Edited July 16, 2023 by TalismanRing

[TalismanRing]

							July 15, 2023 - Saturday 1PM   Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1   Mission: Impossible Jul 12, 2023 $2,638,412 ($8,944,094) 329,047 (1,119,712) 2,271 60.57% 2   Elemental   Jun 14, 2023 $1,234,704 ($30,468,063) 162,704 (3,924,662) 1,240 28.34%

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

So far based in the 1pm update (162,704) Elemental's walkups are running at 81.5% of last week. We'll see how that holds in the key 1pm-5pm hours but if it maintains that all day it will end around 275k (-18%).

 

Really curious to see the number of showtimes it took off of MI7 since its walkups are running at nearly 60% of it today (versus nearly 40% yesterday).

[TalismanRing]

July 15, 2023: Saturday 3PM

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Mission: Impossible	Jul 12, 2023	$3,098,536 ($9,404,218)	386,176 (1,176,841)	2,277	60.1%
2		Elemental	Jun 14, 2023	$1,500,159 ($30,733,349)	195,742 (3,957,679)	1,250	29.1%

[TalismanRing]

July 15, 2023: Saturday 5PM

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Mission: Impossible	Jul 12, 2023	$3,489,900 ($9,795,582)	434,395 (1,225,060)	2,289	59.88%
2		Elemental	Jun 14, 2023	$1,712,152 ($30,945,334)	221,754 (3,983,690)	1,254	29.38%

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

On 7/8/2023 at 1:09 AM, TalismanRing said:

Elemental SATURDAY

(on 1,639! screens)

 

9am:    138,504

11am:  161,419

1pm:   194,688  (+9.99% last Saturday)

3pm:   236,326  (+12%)

5pm:   273,119  (+11.02%)

7pm:   300,089  (+14.53%)

9pm:   321,597 (+14.83%)

11pm: 332,408   (+15.41%)

END:  334,432  (+15.34%)

 

 

 

Saturday July 15 - 5PM

 

MI7: 434,395

Elemental: 221,754 (-19% LW)

 

Elemental is probably drifting to -20% (~267k), MI7 has had 183.5k walkups since 9am versus 134.6k for Elemental last week between 9am and 5pm (+36%). Not a perfect comparison but it'll do for now and points to 267k total walkups. Adding that on to the 251k start gives a finish of 518k (+124% YD).

 

I'd guess we're looking at around 1.8-1.9m admissions for the 5-day and 1.25-1.3m for the 3-day depending on the Sunday hold.

[Joyous Legion]

Man that is barely 60% up from opening sat, it truly is joever

[Brian Miller]

35 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Saturday July 15 - 5PM

 

MI7: 434,395

Elemental: 221,754 (-19% LW)

 

Elemental is probably drifting to -20% (~267k), MI7 has had 183.5k walkups since 9am versus 134.6k for Elemental last week between 9am and 5pm (+36%). Not a perfect comparison but it'll do for now and points to 267k total walkups. Adding that on to the 251k start gives a finish of 518k (+124% YD).

 

I'd guess we're looking at around 1.8-1.9m admissions for the 5-day and 1.25-1.3m for the 3-day depending on the Sunday hold.

Given the low competition for nearly 2 weeks & positive word of mouth, do you think DR1 has a shot to cross Fallout?

[TalismanRing]

July 15, 2023: Saturday 7PM

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Mission: Impossible	Jul 12, 2023	$3,784,594 ($10,090,241)	470,751 (1,261,412)	2,292	59.82%
2		Elemental	Jun 14, 2023	$1,863,546 ($31,096,719)	240,219 (4,002,154)	1,258	29.45

 

Elemental hits 4m admissions

Edited July 15, 2023 by TalismanRing

[pepsa]

Just now, Brian Miller said:

Given the low competition for nearly 2 weeks & positive word of mouth, do you think DR1 has a shot to cross Fallout?

I only has one 'free' week going forward. In it's 3rd / 4th weekend, local blockbusters will open and IM7 will take a big hit.

Also I think we shoudn't use the 166.5k in previews in estimating the OW multi going forward. Yeah IM7 will open to about 1.7-1.8m but 0.166 is in previews so the real OW is more like 1.6m, maybe a bit less. Currently I am thinking a 3x OW multi would be very good => 4.7m + 0.166 previews => 4.87m total.

 

However with competition looking quite rough then next weeks 3x multi will be very hard and atm I woudn't bet on it. That said lets see how sunday drop is, let's see the monday drop, second weekend etc. There is still a lot that can happen but currently nothing is indicating that it will have insane legs.

[Brian Miller]

2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I only has one 'free' week going forward. In it's 3rd / 4th weekend, local blockbusters will open and IM7 will take a big hit.

Also I think we shoudn't use the 166.5k in previews in estimating the OW multi going forward. Yeah IM7 will open to about 1.7-1.8m but 0.166 is in previews so the real OW is more like 1.6m, maybe a bit less. Currently I am thinking a 3x OW multi would be very good => 4.7m + 0.166 previews => 4.87m total.

 

However with competition looking quite rough then next weeks 3x multi will be very hard and atm I woudn't bet on it. That said lets see how sunday drop is, let's see the monday drop, second weekend etc. There is still a lot that can happen but currently nothing is indicating that it will have insane legs.

4.87m admits means it will be around $45M right? That'd be less than Fallout. I was expecting $50M from SK at least.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

17 minutes ago, Brian Miller said:

Given the low competition for nearly 2 weeks & positive word of mouth, do you think DR1 has a shot to cross Fallout?

Fallout opened way higher (2.3m 3-day, 3.3m 5-day) but only had a 2.86 multiplier off the 3-day to finish at 6.58m admissions. This is obviously starting lower so will need much better legs to surpass Fallout. TGM is the second comp and is probably a better one since it also opened on a Wednesday before holidays started. The numbers are quite similar so far:

 

Day	TGM	Dead Reckoning 1
EA	64,704	166,787
Wed	188,312	229,759
Thu	146,105	162,721
Fri	216,163	231,398
Sat	472,306	518,000*
Sun	438,673
3-day	1,127,142
OW	1,526,263
Final	8,177,446
Multiplier (FSS)	7.26

 

If DR1 can finish at 518k that would be the exact same Thu -> Fri jump TGM had. It's not quite holding as good as TGM overall though since its Wed -> Sat multiplier is 2.25x versus 2.51x for TGM, but it's definitely gonna be leggier than Fallout. The problem is the competition. Elemental slowly chipping away at its screen count + Conan next week + Smugglers after that and Ransomed after that is a MUCH tougher first four weeks than what TGM had to deal with (500k local opener week 2, Love & Thunder opening to 1.75m week 3 but being very frontloaded, nothing in week 4). By the end of week 4 TGM had 5.73m admissions, I think DR1 would be very lucky to have 5m by the same point, but even 4m would be a good achievement.

 

IMO 5-6m admissions as the ceiling seems right but maybe other people have more insights to share that might work in its favour.

 

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[mr1006]

According to Korean media, Elemental passed 4 million admissions at 6:37pm local time with 4,000,150 admissions

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, Brian Miller said:

4.87m admits means it will be around $45M right? That'd be less than Fallout. I was expecting $50M from SK at least.

Admission times 8 is the current dollar value but that might go down a bit during its run. So 7.8-7.9 x admission seems safe. With current ATP 4.87m addmision would mean $39m.

Edited July 15, 2023 by pepsa