Frozen OS thread

[BadAtGender]

Yup. Thought of that last week. $300m. Could happen

 

Could, but highly unlikely. We're talking Spirited Away levels of business. Or beyond it, actually, considering the population of Japan has declined in the past 12 years.

 

It does really showcase how much more of a movie-going country SK is than Japan.

[mfantin65]

WikiUsing the annual estimate for October of each year, the population peaked in 2008 at 128,083,960 and had fallen 285,000 by October 2111quote name="DamienRoc" post="1331602" timestamp="1397007746"]Could, but highly unlikely. We're talking Spirited Away levels of business. Or beyond it, actually, considering the population of Japan has declined in the past 12 years. It does really showcase how much more of a movie-going country SK is than Japan.

[Murgatroyd]

Another week, another set of graph updates.

 

 

 

And, a new one, with weekly progress:

 

Overall, it looks like beating TWR is very likely, Ponyo is quite possible, and even Howl isn't completely out of the question.  Anyone who thinks it has a chance at Spirited Away should have their head examined.

[mfantin65]

Another week, another set of graph updates.

And, a new one, with weekly progress:

Overall, it looks like beating TWR is very likely, Ponyo is quite possible, and even Howl isn't completely out of the question. Anyone who thinks it has a chance at Spirited Away should have their head examined.

Anyone who thinks beating TWR is only likely needs to go back to grade school and study mathematics. 150m is a lock. 200m is likely. I love the crazy comments. Most people said 75m at best. You realize any "crazy" person that said 230m is going to be a closer than the "silly" person that came up with that foolish number. Edited April 9, 2014 by mfantin65

[Murgatroyd]

Anyone who thinks beating TWR is only likely needs to go back to grade school and study mathematics. 150m is a lock. 200m is likely. I love the crazy comments. Most people said 75m at best. You realize any "crazy" person that said 230m is going to be a closer than the silly people that came up with that foolish number.

All right, I may have used the wrong descriptor.  Using the IPCC's definitions, I would currently classify it as "extremely likely" (p>0.95) rather than "very likely" (p>0.90).  If next week's numbers are what I expect, I'll probably upgrade it to "virtually certain" (p>0.99).  I would also classify Ponyo as "about as likely as not" (0.33<p<0.66) and Howl as "very unlikely" ( p<0.10). Also note that I'm doing all comparisons in yen, not dollars.

Edited April 9, 2014 by Murgatroyd

[mfantin65]

All right, I may have used the wrong descriptor.  Using the IPCC's definitions, I would currently classify it as "extremely likely" (p>0.95) rather than "very likely" (p>0.90).  If next week's numbers are what I expect, I'll probably upgrade it to "virtually certain" (p>0.99).  I would also classify Ponyo as "about as likely as not" (0.33<p<0.66) and Howl as "very unlikely" ( p<0.10). Also note that I'm doing all comparisons in yen, not dollars.

you do realize 150m is can't miss now. 100%

[catlover]

Anyone who thinks beating TWR is only likely needs to go back to grade school and study mathematics. 150m is a lock. 200m is likely. I love the crazy comments. Most people said 75m at best. You realize any "crazy" person that said 230m is going to be a closer than the "silly" person that came up with that foolish number.

 

To be fair, if Frozen finishes with $150M, $75M will be closer than $230M. Also, in Yen, even if Frozen makes 18b ($180M), those $75M predictions will still be closer than Spirited Away number (30b). And you have to admit, the probability for Frozen to exceed 18n yen is not that big, so in the end, those "foolish" predictions made by "silly" people will be closer than the "reasonable" Spirited Away ones.

[edroger3]

Japan vs South Korea vs China

 

  South Korea Japan China
Week 1  $ 8.787.964 $ 9.731.697 $14.110.000
Week 2  $22.591.208 $29.535.712 $31.840.000
Week 3  $44.479.362 $51.579.593 $40.520.000
Week 4  $58.035.620 $75.093.431 $44.830.000
Week 5  $66.994.336 $47.100.000
Week 6  $71.978.926 $48.240.000
Week 7  $75.110.539
Week 8  $76.250.734
Week 9  $76.695.633

Total  $200.029.064

[mfantin65]

To be fair, if Frozen finishes with $150M, $75M will be closer than $230M. Also, in Yen, even if Frozen makes 18b ($180M), those $75M predictions will still be closer than Spirited Away number (30b). And you have to admit, the probability for Frozen to exceed 18n yen is not that big, so in the end, those "foolish" predictions made by "silly" people will be closer than the "reasonable" Spirited Away ones.

First. 75 is 100% off. Thats zero% correct. In prediction % proximity is commonly used. Those that mentioned S.A. were talking US dollard. 150 is the floor. 200 is looking likely. 30m away or just 15%.if you thought an army approaching your flank was 75k, and 150k was there, you just got annihilated. If you thought 120k was very likely after revising estimates on your other flank and its 200k, your all dead, your women raped and children sold into slavery :pI'd rather be crazy than dead.Btw I never said SA . I was called crazy for 130 in feb. That may turn out to be a silly little number Edited April 9, 2014 by mfantin65

[Rsyu]

First. 75 is 100% off. Thats zero% correct. In prediction % proximity is commonly used. Those that mentioned S.A. were talking US dollard. 150 is the floor. 200 is looking likely. 30m away or just 15%.if you thought an army approaching your flank was 75k, and 150k was there, you just got annihilated. If you thought 120k was very likely after revising estimates on your other flank and its 200k, your all dead, your women raped and children sold into slavery :PI'd rather be crazy than dead.

 

My question to you, I only ever see you talk numbers about frozen. Have you watched it? did you enjoy it as a movie??

[mfantin65]

I enjoy tracking BO. I dont watch cartoons. Lol. Seriously. When I was 12, the target audience for star wars in 77, I fell asleep in the theater, havent watched another since. But tracked the BO in the newspaper every week. musicals? Only liked sound of music. Didnt watch les mis or chicago. I watched 20 minutes LOTR1 and returned dvd. Scifi, fantasy, musicals not my thing. I only watch creation stories for comic book movies. First superman, batman etc..Shawshank redemption, goodwill hunting, seven years in tibet, silver linings playbook, the fighter are my favorite type films.I watch lawrence of arabia, the godfather and jaws about every 5 years. Jaws got me into tracking bo when I was 10. Line around the block every weekend for months.Bugs bunny rules! The only toons I watched as a kid.

Edited April 9, 2014 by mfantin65

[Rsyu]

I enjoy tracking BO. I dont watch cartoons. Lol. Seriously.When I was 12, the target audience for star wars in 77, I fell asleep in the theater, havent watched another since. But tracked the BO in the newspaper every week. musicals? Only liked sound of music. Didnt watch les mis or chicago. I watched 20 minutes LOTR1 and returned dvd. Scifi, fantasy, musicals not my thing. I only watch creation stories for comic book movies. First superman, batman etc..Shawshank redemption, goodwill hunting, seven years in tibet, silver linings playbook, the fighter are my favorite type films.I watch lawrence of arabia, the godfather and jaws about every 5 years. Jaws got me into tracking bo when I was 10. Line around the block every weekend for months.Bugs bunny rules! The only toons I watched as a kid.

 

[edroger3]

I enjoy tracking BO. I dont watch cartoons. Lol. Seriously.When I was 12, the target audience for star wars in 77, I fell asleep in the theater, havent watched another since. But tracked the BO in the newspaper every week. musicals? Only liked sound of music. Didnt watch les mis or chicago. I watched 20 minutes LOTR1 and returned dvd. Scifi, fantasy, musicals not my thing. I only watch creation stories for comic book movies. First superman, batman etc..Shawshank redemption, goodwill hunting, seven years in tibet, silver linings playbook, the fighter are my favorite type films.I watch lawrence of arabia, the godfather and jaws about every 5 years. Jaws got me into tracking bo when I was 10. Line around the block every weekend for months.Bugs bunny rules! The only toons I watched as a kid.

Also I like the numbers and statistics, but even more I like cartoons and Frozen is at the top of the list, and for that I am very happy it had such a great success. However, usually I don't comment movies that do not interest me. So I'm surprised that you don't have ever see Frozen, also saw how many comments you're doing about this movie. Anyway, if n°1 movie of your favorite list is The Shawshank Redemption (best movie ever for me), in my opinion you have the right to comment what you want about all movies.

[mfantin65]

Its just a numbers thing. Tracking BO and trading stocks. Both prediction games. This is a once in ten year event. Frozen japan is like titanic US, just kept hanging out at 25-30m then 15-20m. Hard to say in week 4 if it could do 500m or 800m. Hard to gauge and it becomes a brain teaser, have to dig into the numbers. Its exciting to see the resinance and WOM reflected in the numbers. You dont see me posting in Noah whether it will do 98 or 100m, not a challenge there. Ill track it though on sunday on bom, and ill watch it too. I like aronofsky and Crowe. I think it breaks 100 w easter bump.Stai Italian?Sono italiano.mi padre viene de pordenone. I dont speak it well. I want spend a year in Italy and become fluent.

[edroger3]

Its just a numbers thing. Tracking BO and trading stocks. Both prediction games. This is a once in ten year event. Frozen japan is like titanic US, just kept hanging out at 25-30m then 15-20m. Hard to say in week 4 if it could do 500m or 800m. Hard to gauge and it becomes a brain teaser, have to dig into the numbers. Its exciting to see the resinance and WOM reflected in the numbers. You dont see me posting in Noah whether it will do 98 or 100m, not a challenge there. Ill track it though on sunday on bom, and ill watch it too. I like aronofsky and Crowe. I think it breaks 100 w easter bump.Stai Italian?Sono italiano.mi padre viene de pordenone.I dont speak it well. I want spend a year in Italy and become fluent.

I live near Florence.

[Murgatroyd]

you do realize 150m is can't miss now. 100%

 

A steep fall is still theoretically possible.  Extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

 

MU-level holds from here out put it at ¥14.1B.

[edroger3]

See mon/wed run in Japan, It's sure that today Frozen passes 1,1B$ WW / 700M$ OS (12th movie ever to do this and 2nd animated), and saturday will pass Skyfall to reach #8 WW.

[mfantin65]

A steep fall is still theoretically possible. Extremely unlikely, but not impossible.MU-level holds from here out put it at ¥14.1B.

MU's 4th weekend was down 60% from the first already. It wasn't holding still in summer. Week 7 was the end of summer and midweek sales evaporated and the big weekend decline occurred. Frozen has golden week for week 8 and 9. Could be at 135-140m by the end of GW.TS 3 also had a quick death when summer was over. If it were to drop like them, it would have dropped 30% this past weekend and not be down just 18% today from the first wed. We are dealing with different animal. Edited April 9, 2014 by mfantin65

[catlover]

First. 75 is 100% off. Thats zero% correct. In prediction % proximity is commonly used. Those that mentioned S.A. were talking US dollard. 150 is the floor. 200 is looking likely. 30m away or just 15%.if you thought an army approaching your flank was 75k, and 150k was there, you just got annihilated. If you thought 120k was very likely after revising estimates on your other flank and its 200k, your all dead, your women raped and children sold into slavery :PI'd rather be crazy than dead.Btw I never said SA . I was called crazy for 130 in feb. That may turn out to be a silly little number

 

What the hell are you talking about? It's box office, not a war lol. Overestimation is not better than underestimation. It might cause you a huge loss too (overproducing a product, overestimating the number of people who are going to see a concert or a movie that you produced, etc). And what do you mean by "100% off means 0% correct"? So if I predict 60m and it ends up with 150m does that mean I'm 150% off and -50% correct? That doesn't even make sense.

 

Yes percentage is used to show the accuracy of a prediction, but it's relative to the actual value, not the predicted value. So you use the same value (the actual value) as your base. Assume that the actual value is 150m. If your prediction is 75m, then you're 50% off, and if you're prediction is 230m, then you're 53.3% off. How can you compare percentages if you use different bases? I'm a mathematician, and I deal with statistics and probability everyday. Maybe you have a different method so correct me if I'm wrong, but that's how I understand it and use it in mathematics.

 

And wow, I'm surprised you haven't even seen Frozen. Maybe you should. But then you might not like it since musicals aren't your thing. I respect your taste in movies though. The Godfather and Shawshank Redemption are two of my favorite movies of all time. I also love the other movies you mentioned.

Edited April 9, 2014 by catlover

[mfantin65]

quote name="catlover" post="1332618" timestamp="1397063789"]What the hell are you talking about? It's box office, not a war lol. Overestimation is not better than underestimation. It might cause you a huge loss too (overproducing a product, overestimating the number of people who are going to see a concert or a movie that you produced, etc). And what do you mean by "100% off means 0% correct"? So if I predict 60m and it ends up with 150m does that mean I'm 150% off and -50% correct? That doesn't even make sense.Yes percentage is used to show the accuracy of a prediction, but it's relative to the actual value, not the predicted value. So you use the same value (the actual value) as your base. Assume that the actual value is 150m. If your prediction is 75m, then you're 50% off, and if you're prediction is 230m, then you're 53.3% off. How can you compare percentages if you use different bases? I'm a mathematician, and I deal with statistics and probability everyday. Maybe you have a different method so correct me if I'm wrong, but that's how I understand it and use it in mathematics. :)And wow, I'm surprised you haven't even seen Frozen. Maybe you should. But then you might not like it since musicals aren't your thing. I respect your taste in movies though. The Godfather and Shawshank Redemption are two of my favorite movies of all time. I also love the other movies you mentioned.

Edited April 9, 2014 by mfantin65