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Year 4 Part 2: Predictions

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January 3-5

Call Me Maybe

OW: 6.2M

Total: 12.7M

January 10-12

MaZ3

OW: 7.8M

Total: 19.6M

The Homestarmy Invades!

OW: 2.1M

Total: 4.6M

January 17-19

Sasquatch 3D

OW: 23.2M

Total: 55.7M

The Immune

OW: 37.5M

Total: 108.7M

January 24-26

A Stark Night

OW: 25.6M

Total: 78.9M

January 31-February 2

Columbine

OW: 5.4M

Total: 9.3M

Lady Gaga: Born This Way 3D

OW: 10.2M

Total: 43.1M

February 7-9

Bone - Vernal Equinox

OW: 48.1M

Total: 153.5M

Madea’s Valentine

OW: 24.2M

Total: 62.7M

February 14-17

Pokemon: Rise of the Rockets

OW: 61.2M

Total: 172.4M

Forever Yours

OW: 26.6M

Total: 94.5M

Unbalanced

OW: (2/7; Limited) $0.7M, (Wide) 15.6M

Total: 56.4M

February 21-23

Army of Two

OW: 40.6M

Total: 112.4M

Six Souls 3D

OW: 20.1M

Total: 43.2M

February 28-March 2

Phone Conversations with Mother

OW: 27.2M

Total: 65.4M

City of Darkness

OW: 17.2M

Total: 56.2M

March 7-9

The 39 Steps

OW: 11.1M

Total: 52.4M

The Conondrum

OW: 35.1M

Total: 107.4M

March 14-16

Dawn of Souls II: Rebirth

OW: 85.3M

Total: 276.7M

March 21-23

Sylvarius

OW: 52.4M

Total: 191.2M

The Lost Planet of the Shrieking Creature

OW: 9.3M

Total: 34.2M

March 28-30

Illusiono 2

OW: 25.4M

Total: 80.7M

On the Set

OW: (3/14; Limited) $0.3M, (Wide) 1.2M

Total: 6.3M

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January

Call Me Maybe - 5.7/11.6

Sasquatch 3D - 14.8/50.9

The Immune - 28.3/80.4

A Stark Knight - 21.6/70.2

Columbine - 12.1/28.7

Lady Gaga: Born This Way 3D - 11.5/27.8

February

Bone: Vernal Equinox - 38.2/142.4

Final Fantasy: Dawn Of Souls - 15.4/38.2

Tyler Perry's Madea's Valentine - 26.3/55.7

Unbalanced - 2.7/16.3/37.5

Pokemon: Rise Of The Rockets - 43.8/132.7

Forever Yours - 27.7/88.3

Army Of Two - 26.9/72.3

Six Souls 3D - 6.5/13.2

City Of Darkness - 13.6/29.5

Phone Conversations With Mother - 12.5/45.8

March

The 39 Steps - 13.6/47.0

The Conundrum - 18.4/61.8

Dawn Of Souls II: Rebirth - 82.7/235.7

On The Set - 0.5/1/1.8/8.8

Sylvarius - 47.5/196.9

Lost Planet Of The Sleeping Creature - 10.7/24.2

Illusiono 2 - 42.7/97.3

April

Wierd Al Yankovic: Insert Title Here In 2D - 6.8/17.3

Mermaid - 8.6/26.3

Best Friends Forever - 11.7/31.5

Decker - 25.3/93.1

Paranoia 2 - 23.8/52.1

Death Of A Strawberry - 9.2/27.4

Service - 4.6/11.4

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April 4-6

Weird Al Yankovic: Insert Title Here in 2-D

OW: 4.2M

Total: 11.9M

Mermaid

OW: 22.7M

Total: 43.6M

April 11-13

Best Friends Forever

OW: 7.8M

Total: 26.9M

Decker

OW: 35.2M

Total: 108.9M

April 18-20

Paranoia 2

OW: 32.2M

Total: 76.3M

April 25-27

Death of a Strawberry

OW: 43.2M

Total: 131.3M

Service

OW: 5.6M

Total: 10.7M

May 2-4

Divisions

OW: 96.3M

Total: 278.4M

May 9-11

The Flash

OW: 83.2M

Total: 224.7M

May 16-18

Call of Duty: Of Their Own Accord

OW: 110.8M

Total: 303.1M

May 23-26

Once Upon a Mattress

OW: (4-Day) 42.7M; (3-Day) 35.6M

Total: 144.3M

Battle: Mars 3D

OW: (4-Day) 12.4M; (3-Day) 9.2M

Total: 24.8M

May 30-June 1

Our City

OW: 27.8M

Total: 106.4M

June 6-8

Midnight Children of the Damned

OW: 12.4M

Total: 25.6M

June 13-15

Taking Names

OW: 32.3M

Total: 145.4M

June 20-22

Booster Gold

OW: 45.6M

Total: 145.8M

Giant Spiders

OW: 29.6M

Total: 80.1M

June 27-29

Spark

OW: 54.8M

Total: 272.7M

Rivals: The Abyss

OW: 72.3M

Total: 163.7M

Bohemian

OW: (5/23; Limited) $0.3M, (Wide) 13.7M

Total: 35M

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May

Divisions - 70.5/217.8

The Flash - 50.3/131.4

Call Of Duty: On Their Own Accord - 110.7/283.6

Once Upon A Mattress - 33.9/117.3

Battle: Mars 3D - 2.6/5.3

Our City - 41.8/157.8

Bohemian - 0.3/3.4/29.3

June

Midnight: Children Of The Damned - 17.8/43.9

Taking Names - 40.8/152.7

Booster Gold - 47.3/142.6

Giant Spiders - 15.2/37.5

Rivals: The Abyss - 61.8/154.7

Spark - 62.9/247.1

July

Pippi Longstocking - 3.5/9.6

Nirvana - 78.3/317.2

The Suicide King - 21.8/56.3

Jane & Tony - 5.3/13.8

The Last Six - 88.3/257.1

Comedians - 57.3/148.8

Cruisers - 13.9/35

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Must be a typo for Decker, there's no way that a family film that opens 30m+ will do less than 1.7 multiplier.

This. There are also some other really low multipliers, not unrealistic, but certainly quite low, they'd actually make the record books for highest OW not to reach a target if they happened in real life.
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August

Island Of The Blue Dolphins - 34.6/130.1

Shut Up & Take My Memes! - 0.9/1.6/9.6

The Glass Castle - 17.8/81.4

Summer Jobs - 12.8/31.9

Martian Manhunter - 44.7/124.3

Breakout Character - 15.2/47.6

Student Film - 11.3/40.8

Knights Of The Lunch Table - 10.7/37.6

Remember Flight 175 - 4.5/14.6/45.1

Grunge - 2.8/1.9/19.3

September

Invaders Must Die: The Tale Of Doogie Rounds - 31.7/95.8

Lake Of The Psychopaths- 6.9/13.7

Duck In Space - 38.7/136.9

Prisoners - 10.8/23.9

Tomb Raider - 7.8/33.1/108.7

LoveBytes - 15.8/58.2

October

The Good Die Young - 25.8/116.8

The Flowers Of Arvika - 2.1/6.9/33.8

The Simulation - 17.6/60.2

Hope-Fear-Adventure - 21.8/57.4

The 13th Night - 8.2/18.3

The Party Party - 29.3/104.7

Silence! Part 2 - 27.3/53.4

Defiance - 17.7/39.7

The Vast Dark: Part III - 14.9/27.7

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July 4-6:

Pippi Longstocking

OW: 6.7M

Total: 19.5M

Nirvana

OW: 82.3M

Total: 240.7M

July 11-13

The Suicide King

OW: 35.6M

Total: 107.6M

Jane and Tony

OW: 5.3M

Total: 30.5M

July 18-20

The Last Six

OW: 93.1M

Total: 255.3M

July 25-27

Comedians

OW: 47.9

Total: 135.7M

Cruisers

OW: 10.1M

Total: 35.3M

August 1-3

Island of the Blue Dolphins

OW: 37M

Total: 186.4M

August 8-10

Summer Jobs

OW: 9.3M

Total: 27.6M

The Glass Castle

OW: 23.1M

Total: 102.3M

August 15-17

Martian Manhunter

OW: 60.3M

Total: 165.7M

August 22-24

Breakout Character

OW: 32.3M

Total: 93.2M

August 29-September 1

Knights of the Lunch Table

OW: 12.3M

Total: 43.3M

Student Film

OW: 15.6M

Total: 63.7M

September 5-7

Remember Flight 175

OW: (8/29; Limited) 1.7M; (Wide) 20.3M

Total: 70.6M

September 12-14

Invaders Must Die!: The Tale of Doogie Rounds

OW: 37.5M

Total: 96.3M

September 19-21

Grunge

OW: (Limited; 8/29) 0.2M; (Wide) 1.3M

Total: 5.2M

Lake of the Psychopaths

OW: 14.3M

Total: 37.5M

Duck in Space

OW: 41.2M

Total: 125.8M

September 26-28

LoveBytes

OW: 37.2M

Total: 99.6M

Prisoners

OW: 17.6M

Total: 49.9M

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Blankments, have you ever been a member of Box Office Mojo? None of your predictions make any sense

I joined in July... And the only predictions I've made here besides these are the 2013 predictions currently in Box Office Discussion. :/ I'm hoping to learn how to predict over the next year, but for now I just guess what sounds good to me based off my opinion of the film, effecting word-of-mouth, and then my knowledge of the genre of film generally doing at the box office. I also look at directors, MPAA rating, and actors. Sorry they aren't that good though. :(
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Every little bit of predictions helps, Blankments. The thing you probably need to get the best feel of is for legs.

-Animated films typically achieve at least 3x, if not 4x (when WOM is really good or it has a strong summer/winter date)

-Dramas have legs directly related to the film's quality, at least in most cases.

-Most horror films average at about 2-2.5x in terms of multipliers.

-Action films generally fall below 3x multipliers, unless they get good reviews/WOM

-Independent films that expand typically have large OW PTAs, which are shaven by 50%-70% with most expansions.

-Comedies are wild cards, but legs usually corrolate with WOM. Summer also helps for Comedy legs, though competition can be brutal.

November

The Nutcracker & The Mouse King - 29.7/123.3

Chuck Norris & Liam Neeson Vs. The Abominable Snowman - 35.8/84.7

The Triple Nickels - 24.7/116.9

Kardashians! The World's Greatest Family - 1.7/2.8

Never Say Goodbye - 3/8.9/50.3

Insurgent - 83.6/204.7

Citizen Hughes - 32.9/130.8

The Sketchbook - 29.4/101.6

Wenan - 23.8/114.9

December

The Road Home - 0.1/8.6/81.6

Death Of A Salesman - 0.2/8.2/67.2

La Bourrage Marron - 3.0/9.1

Bellringer Of Notre Dame - 26.1/119.6

Ready Player One - 17.2/67.3

Alesia - 41.6/219.7

A Series Of Unfortunate Events - 30.6/127.3

Miracle Boys - 5.4/47.1

Lord Madship - 43.7/187.8

In The Line Of Service - 6.8/39.2

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Every little bit of predictions helps, Blankments. The thing you probably need to get the best feel of is for legs.-Animated films typically achieve at least 3x, if not 4x (when WOM is really good or it has a strong summer/winter date)-Dramas have legs directly related to the film's quality, at least in most cases.-Most horror films average at about 2-2.5x in terms of multipliers.-Action films generally fall below 3x multipliers, unless they get good reviews/WOM-Independent films that expand typically have large OW PTAs, which are shaven by 50%-70% with most expansions.-Comedies are wild cards, but legs usually corrolate with WOM. Summer also helps for Comedy legs, though competition can be brutal.

Thanks. I'll take these in consideration with my final predictions. I'll also edit my previous ones with different totals. :)
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October 3-5

Tomb Raider

OW: (Limited; 9/26) 7.2M; (Wide) 49.2M

Total: 121.2M

The Good Die Young

OW: 39.3M

Total: 114.7M

October 10-12

The Simulation

OW: 39.3M

Total: 115.8M

Hope-Fear-Adventure

OW: 12.5M

Total: 27.8M

October 17-19

The Flowers of Arvika

OW: (Limited; 10/3) 0.8M; (Wide) 7.5M

Total: 38.9M

The 13th Night: Vengeance of Hell

OW: 3.2M

Total: 7.4M

October 24-26

The Party Party

OW: 54.8M

Total: 108.1M

Silence! Part 2: The Revenge

OW: 22.8M

Total: 47.2M

October 31-September 2

The Vast Dark Part III: The Execution

OW: 44.6M

Total: 81.2M

November 7-9

Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Abominable Snowman

OW: 32.3M

Total: 78.7M

The Nutcracker and the Mouse King

OW: 27.8M

Total: 87.6M

November 14-16

Kardashians! World’s Greatest Family

OW: 7.5M

Total: 19.7M

The Triple Nickels

OW: 17.6M

Total: 98.7M

November 21-23

Insurgent

OW: 82.3M

Total: 231.2M

November 26-30

Citizen Hughes

OW: (5-Day) 33.7M (3-Day) 25.8M

Total: 87.4M

The Sketchbook

OW: (5-Day) 52.3M; (3-Day) 46.7M

Total: 109.8M

Wenan

OW: (5-Day) 22.3M; (3-Day) 18.9M

Total: 86.2M

December 5-7

Never Say Goodbye

OW: (11/14; Limited) 1.6M; (Wide) 8.9M

Total: 66.8M

La Bourrage Marron

OW: 1.2M

Total: 3.1M

December 12-14

The Bellringer of Notre Dame

OW: 21.3M

Total: 97.5M

Ready, Player One

OW: 42.3M

Total: 113.7M

December 19-21

A Series of Unfortunate Events

OW: 44.4M

Total: 145.8M

Alesia

OW: 61.3M

Total: 196.8M

December 25-28

Lord Madship

OW: (4-Day) 36.0M (3-Day) 29.5M

Total: 192.3M

In the Line of Service

OW: (4-Day) 20.4M; (3-Day) 15.9M

Total: 127.4M

Death of a Salesman

OW: (Limited; 12/5) 0.3M; (Wide; 3-Day) 23.5M; (4-Day) 27.6

Total: 108.3M

The Road Home

OW: (Limited; 12/5) 0.2M; (Wide; 3-Day) 16.5M; (4-Day) 19.2M

Total: 71.8M

Miracle Kids

OW: (Limited; 12/19) 6.3M; (Wide; 3-Day) 25.8M; (4-Day) 29.9M

Total: 111.5M

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