Hiccup Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Alright make your predictions for the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 (edited) January 3-5 Call Me Maybe OW: 6.2M Total: 12.7M January 10-12 MaZ3 OW: 7.8M Total: 19.6M The Homestarmy Invades! OW: 2.1M Total: 4.6M January 17-19 Sasquatch 3D OW: 23.2M Total: 55.7M The Immune OW: 37.5M Total: 108.7M January 24-26 A Stark Night OW: 25.6M Total: 78.9M January 31-February 2 Columbine OW: 5.4M Total: 9.3M Lady Gaga: Born This Way 3D OW: 10.2M Total: 43.1M February 7-9 Bone - Vernal Equinox OW: 48.1M Total: 153.5M Madea’s Valentine OW: 24.2M Total: 62.7M February 14-17 Pokemon: Rise of the Rockets OW: 61.2M Total: 172.4M Forever Yours OW: 26.6M Total: 94.5M Unbalanced OW: (2/7; Limited) $0.7M, (Wide) 15.6M Total: 56.4M February 21-23 Army of Two OW: 40.6M Total: 112.4M Six Souls 3D OW: 20.1M Total: 43.2M February 28-March 2 Phone Conversations with Mother OW: 27.2M Total: 65.4M City of Darkness OW: 17.2M Total: 56.2M March 7-9 The 39 Steps OW: 11.1M Total: 52.4M The Conondrum OW: 35.1M Total: 107.4M March 14-16 Dawn of Souls II: Rebirth OW: 85.3M Total: 276.7M March 21-23 Sylvarius OW: 52.4M Total: 191.2M The Lost Planet of the Shrieking Creature OW: 9.3M Total: 34.2M March 28-30 Illusiono 2 OW: 25.4M Total: 80.7M On the Set OW: (3/14; Limited) $0.3M, (Wide) 1.2M Total: 6.3M Edited September 15, 2012 by Blankments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 January Call Me Maybe - 5.7/11.6 Sasquatch 3D - 14.8/50.9 The Immune - 28.3/80.4 A Stark Knight - 21.6/70.2 Columbine - 12.1/28.7 Lady Gaga: Born This Way 3D - 11.5/27.8 February Bone: Vernal Equinox - 38.2/142.4 Final Fantasy: Dawn Of Souls - 15.4/38.2 Tyler Perry's Madea's Valentine - 26.3/55.7 Unbalanced - 2.7/16.3/37.5 Pokemon: Rise Of The Rockets - 43.8/132.7 Forever Yours - 27.7/88.3 Army Of Two - 26.9/72.3 Six Souls 3D - 6.5/13.2 City Of Darkness - 13.6/29.5 Phone Conversations With Mother - 12.5/45.8 March The 39 Steps - 13.6/47.0 The Conundrum - 18.4/61.8 Dawn Of Souls II: Rebirth - 82.7/235.7 On The Set - 0.5/1/1.8/8.8 Sylvarius - 47.5/196.9 Lost Planet Of The Sleeping Creature - 10.7/24.2 Illusiono 2 - 42.7/97.3 April Wierd Al Yankovic: Insert Title Here In 2D - 6.8/17.3 Mermaid - 8.6/26.3 Best Friends Forever - 11.7/31.5 Decker - 25.3/93.1 Paranoia 2 - 23.8/52.1 Death Of A Strawberry - 9.2/27.4 Service - 4.6/11.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 You guys are all so quick, I've barely read a quarter of all the movies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 (edited) April 4-6 Weird Al Yankovic: Insert Title Here in 2-D OW: 4.2M Total: 11.9M Mermaid OW: 22.7M Total: 43.6M April 11-13 Best Friends Forever OW: 7.8M Total: 26.9M Decker OW: 35.2M Total: 108.9M April 18-20 Paranoia 2 OW: 32.2M Total: 76.3M April 25-27 Death of a Strawberry OW: 43.2M Total: 131.3M Service OW: 5.6M Total: 10.7M May 2-4 Divisions OW: 96.3M Total: 278.4M May 9-11 The Flash OW: 83.2M Total: 224.7M May 16-18 Call of Duty: Of Their Own Accord OW: 110.8M Total: 303.1M May 23-26 Once Upon a Mattress OW: (4-Day) 42.7M; (3-Day) 35.6M Total: 144.3M Battle: Mars 3D OW: (4-Day) 12.4M; (3-Day) 9.2M Total: 24.8M May 30-June 1 Our City OW: 27.8M Total: 106.4M June 6-8 Midnight Children of the Damned OW: 12.4M Total: 25.6M June 13-15 Taking Names OW: 32.3M Total: 145.4M June 20-22 Booster Gold OW: 45.6M Total: 145.8M Giant Spiders OW: 29.6M Total: 80.1M June 27-29 Spark OW: 54.8M Total: 272.7M Rivals: The Abyss OW: 72.3M Total: 163.7M Bohemian OW: (5/23; Limited) $0.3M, (Wide) 13.7M Total: 35M Edited September 15, 2012 by Blankments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Must be a typo for Decker, there's no way that a family film that opens 30m+ will do less than 1.7 multiplier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 May Divisions - 70.5/217.8 The Flash - 50.3/131.4 Call Of Duty: On Their Own Accord - 110.7/283.6 Once Upon A Mattress - 33.9/117.3 Battle: Mars 3D - 2.6/5.3 Our City - 41.8/157.8 Bohemian - 0.3/3.4/29.3 June Midnight: Children Of The Damned - 17.8/43.9 Taking Names - 40.8/152.7 Booster Gold - 47.3/142.6 Giant Spiders - 15.2/37.5 Rivals: The Abyss - 61.8/154.7 Spark - 62.9/247.1 July Pippi Longstocking - 3.5/9.6 Nirvana - 78.3/317.2 The Suicide King - 21.8/56.3 Jane & Tony - 5.3/13.8 The Last Six - 88.3/257.1 Comedians - 57.3/148.8 Cruisers - 13.9/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Must be a typo for Decker, there's no way that a family film that opens 30m+ will do less than 1.7 multiplier.This. There are also some other really low multipliers, not unrealistic, but certainly quite low, they'd actually make the record books for highest OW not to reach a target if they happened in real life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiccup Posted September 12, 2012 Author Share Posted September 12, 2012 Man I got a dull year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Sorry, I'll go fix them. This is my first time ever doing a lot of predictions, real or fake, so I don't really know that many rules of box office... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 August Island Of The Blue Dolphins - 34.6/130.1 Shut Up & Take My Memes! - 0.9/1.6/9.6 The Glass Castle - 17.8/81.4 Summer Jobs - 12.8/31.9 Martian Manhunter - 44.7/124.3 Breakout Character - 15.2/47.6 Student Film - 11.3/40.8 Knights Of The Lunch Table - 10.7/37.6 Remember Flight 175 - 4.5/14.6/45.1 Grunge - 2.8/1.9/19.3 September Invaders Must Die: The Tale Of Doogie Rounds - 31.7/95.8 Lake Of The Psychopaths- 6.9/13.7 Duck In Space - 38.7/136.9 Prisoners - 10.8/23.9 Tomb Raider - 7.8/33.1/108.7 LoveBytes - 15.8/58.2 October The Good Die Young - 25.8/116.8 The Flowers Of Arvika - 2.1/6.9/33.8 The Simulation - 17.6/60.2 Hope-Fear-Adventure - 21.8/57.4 The 13th Night - 8.2/18.3 The Party Party - 29.3/104.7 Silence! Part 2 - 27.3/53.4 Defiance - 17.7/39.7 The Vast Dark: Part III - 14.9/27.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 (edited) July 4-6: Pippi Longstocking OW: 6.7M Total: 19.5M Nirvana OW: 82.3M Total: 240.7M July 11-13 The Suicide King OW: 35.6M Total: 107.6M Jane and Tony OW: 5.3M Total: 30.5M July 18-20 The Last Six OW: 93.1M Total: 255.3M July 25-27 Comedians OW: 47.9 Total: 135.7M Cruisers OW: 10.1M Total: 35.3M August 1-3 Island of the Blue Dolphins OW: 37M Total: 186.4M August 8-10 Summer Jobs OW: 9.3M Total: 27.6M The Glass Castle OW: 23.1M Total: 102.3M August 15-17 Martian Manhunter OW: 60.3M Total: 165.7M August 22-24 Breakout Character OW: 32.3M Total: 93.2M August 29-September 1 Knights of the Lunch Table OW: 12.3M Total: 43.3M Student Film OW: 15.6M Total: 63.7M September 5-7 Remember Flight 175 OW: (8/29; Limited) 1.7M; (Wide) 20.3M Total: 70.6M September 12-14 Invaders Must Die!: The Tale of Doogie Rounds OW: 37.5M Total: 96.3M September 19-21 Grunge OW: (Limited; 8/29) 0.2M; (Wide) 1.3M Total: 5.2M Lake of the Psychopaths OW: 14.3M Total: 37.5M Duck in Space OW: 41.2M Total: 125.8M September 26-28 LoveBytes OW: 37.2M Total: 99.6M Prisoners OW: 17.6M Total: 49.9M Edited September 15, 2012 by Blankments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Blankments, have you ever been a member of Box Office Mojo? None of your predictions make any sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Blankments, have you ever been a member of Box Office Mojo? None of your predictions make any senseI joined in July... And the only predictions I've made here besides these are the 2013 predictions currently in Box Office Discussion. :/ I'm hoping to learn how to predict over the next year, but for now I just guess what sounds good to me based off my opinion of the film, effecting word-of-mouth, and then my knowledge of the genre of film generally doing at the box office. I also look at directors, MPAA rating, and actors. Sorry they aren't that good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 (edited) Every little bit of predictions helps, Blankments. The thing you probably need to get the best feel of is for legs. -Animated films typically achieve at least 3x, if not 4x (when WOM is really good or it has a strong summer/winter date) -Dramas have legs directly related to the film's quality, at least in most cases. -Most horror films average at about 2-2.5x in terms of multipliers. -Action films generally fall below 3x multipliers, unless they get good reviews/WOM -Independent films that expand typically have large OW PTAs, which are shaven by 50%-70% with most expansions. -Comedies are wild cards, but legs usually corrolate with WOM. Summer also helps for Comedy legs, though competition can be brutal. November The Nutcracker & The Mouse King - 29.7/123.3 Chuck Norris & Liam Neeson Vs. The Abominable Snowman - 35.8/84.7 The Triple Nickels - 24.7/116.9 Kardashians! The World's Greatest Family - 1.7/2.8 Never Say Goodbye - 3/8.9/50.3 Insurgent - 83.6/204.7 Citizen Hughes - 32.9/130.8 The Sketchbook - 29.4/101.6 Wenan - 23.8/114.9 December The Road Home - 0.1/8.6/81.6 Death Of A Salesman - 0.2/8.2/67.2 La Bourrage Marron - 3.0/9.1 Bellringer Of Notre Dame - 26.1/119.6 Ready Player One - 17.2/67.3 Alesia - 41.6/219.7 A Series Of Unfortunate Events - 30.6/127.3 Miracle Boys - 5.4/47.1 Lord Madship - 43.7/187.8 In The Line Of Service - 6.8/39.2 Edited September 14, 2012 by Spaghetti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Every little bit of predictions helps, Blankments. The thing you probably need to get the best feel of is for legs.-Animated films typically achieve at least 3x, if not 4x (when WOM is really good or it has a strong summer/winter date)-Dramas have legs directly related to the film's quality, at least in most cases.-Most horror films average at about 2-2.5x in terms of multipliers.-Action films generally fall below 3x multipliers, unless they get good reviews/WOM-Independent films that expand typically have large OW PTAs, which are shaven by 50%-70% with most expansions.-Comedies are wild cards, but legs usually corrolate with WOM. Summer also helps for Comedy legs, though competition can be brutal.Thanks. I'll take these in consideration with my final predictions. I'll also edit my previous ones with different totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiccup Posted September 14, 2012 Author Share Posted September 14, 2012 The average multiplier for most action/fantasy/sci-fi films is 2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 The average multiplier for most action/fantasy/sci-fi films is 2.7And for higher quality ones it generally goes from 3 to anywhere from 5 or more. Bad ones, well..... they can have pretty crap ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 October 3-5 Tomb Raider OW: (Limited; 9/26) 7.2M; (Wide) 49.2M Total: 121.2M The Good Die Young OW: 39.3M Total: 114.7M October 10-12 The Simulation OW: 39.3M Total: 115.8M Hope-Fear-Adventure OW: 12.5M Total: 27.8M October 17-19 The Flowers of Arvika OW: (Limited; 10/3) 0.8M; (Wide) 7.5M Total: 38.9M The 13th Night: Vengeance of Hell OW: 3.2M Total: 7.4M October 24-26 The Party Party OW: 54.8M Total: 108.1M Silence! Part 2: The Revenge OW: 22.8M Total: 47.2M October 31-September 2 The Vast Dark Part III: The Execution OW: 44.6M Total: 81.2M November 7-9 Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Abominable Snowman OW: 32.3M Total: 78.7M The Nutcracker and the Mouse King OW: 27.8M Total: 87.6M November 14-16 Kardashians! World’s Greatest Family OW: 7.5M Total: 19.7M The Triple Nickels OW: 17.6M Total: 98.7M November 21-23 Insurgent OW: 82.3M Total: 231.2M November 26-30 Citizen Hughes OW: (5-Day) 33.7M (3-Day) 25.8M Total: 87.4M The Sketchbook OW: (5-Day) 52.3M; (3-Day) 46.7M Total: 109.8M Wenan OW: (5-Day) 22.3M; (3-Day) 18.9M Total: 86.2M December 5-7 Never Say Goodbye OW: (11/14; Limited) 1.6M; (Wide) 8.9M Total: 66.8M La Bourrage Marron OW: 1.2M Total: 3.1M December 12-14 The Bellringer of Notre Dame OW: 21.3M Total: 97.5M Ready, Player One OW: 42.3M Total: 113.7M December 19-21 A Series of Unfortunate Events OW: 44.4M Total: 145.8M Alesia OW: 61.3M Total: 196.8M December 25-28 Lord Madship OW: (4-Day) 36.0M (3-Day) 29.5M Total: 192.3M In the Line of Service OW: (4-Day) 20.4M; (3-Day) 15.9M Total: 127.4M Death of a Salesman OW: (Limited; 12/5) 0.3M; (Wide; 3-Day) 23.5M; (4-Day) 27.6 Total: 108.3M The Road Home OW: (Limited; 12/5) 0.2M; (Wide; 3-Day) 16.5M; (4-Day) 19.2M Total: 71.8M Miracle Kids OW: (Limited; 12/19) 6.3M; (Wide; 3-Day) 25.8M; (4-Day) 29.9M Total: 111.5M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I've now updated all of my predictions to hopefully be more precise according to the advice you've given me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
