Will Days of Future Past Move?

[Master Scottb]

Here is a silly, stupid, hypothetical question. What if the Hobbit movies disappoint? We all seem to be assuming that the Hobbit trilogy will see success on a level similar to the LOTR trilogy ($430m-$500m adjusted). But, what if the Hobbit movies fall short? I'm not saying that they will, but here we are talking about the 3rd Hobbit movie and how much it will impact the next X-Men movie, when the 1st Hobbit movie hasn't even come out yet.2014 is a long way off, and there are going to be 2 Hobbit movies out before then. I think Fox should wait and see what the other Hobbit movies do before deciding to move the X-Men. If they end up being mega huge successes like people are expecing then yes move X-Men, if however the Hobbit movies don't live up to expectations, keep X-Men where it is and let New Line sweat it out.

Edited October 1, 2012 by scottb

[Neo]

Here is a silly, stupid, hypothetical question. What if the Hobbit movies disappoint? We all seem to be assuming that the Hobbit trilogy will see success on a level similar to the LOTR trilogy ($430m-$500m adjusted). But, what if the Hobbit movies fall short? I'm not saying that they will, but here we are talking about the 3rd Hobbit movie and how much it will impact the next X-Men movie, when the 1st Hobbit movie hasn't even come out yet.2014 is a long way off, and there are going to be 2 Hobbit movies out before then. I think Fox should wait and see what the other Hobbit movies do before deciding to move the X-Men. If they end up being mega huge successes like people are expecing then yes move X-Men, if however the Hobbit movies don't live up to expectations, keep X-Men where it is and let New Line sweat it out.

It could always move back like Pacific Rim did. The scenario sounds reasonable though.

[fishstick]

Here is a silly, stupid, hypothetical question. What if the Hobbit movies disappoint? We all seem to be assuming that the Hobbit trilogy will see success on a level similar to the LOTR trilogy ($430m-$500m adjusted). But, what if the Hobbit movies fall short? I'm not saying that they will, but here we are talking about the 3rd Hobbit movie and how much it will impact the next X-Men movie, when the 1st Hobbit movie hasn't even come out yet.2014 is a long way off, and there are going to be 2 Hobbit movies out before then. I think Fox should wait and see what the other Hobbit movies do before deciding to move the X-Men. If they end up being mega huge successes like people are expecing then yes move X-Men, if however the Hobbit movies don't live up to expectations, keep X-Men where it is and let New Line sweat it out.

Disappointment or not, the franchise is still way stronger than X Men. TF2-level Hobbit tripe would have outgrossed TDK-level X Men masterpeice by a large margin. Just look at POTC, TF and Twilight. No matter how shitty some of the movies in those series are they make insane amount a money that X Men franchise doesn`t. It`s just the way it is. Fandom is huge. Shitty Hobbit 1 or 2 wouldn`t have had a Narnia-type of a nose-dive for the next sequel. I mean, AWE was so shitty it did in fact have over $100 mio drop but it still made over 950 mio WW and 3D and expanded markets absolutely saved OST`s face. X Men was never really a true mainstream thing.

[Master Scottb]

Disappointment or not, the franchise is still way stronger than X Men. TF2-level Hobbit tripe would have outgrossed TDK-level X Men masterpeice by a large margin. Just look at POTC, TF and Twilight. No matter how shitty some of the movies in those series are they make insane amount a money that X Men franchise doesn`t. It`s just the way it is. Fandom is huge. Shitty Hobbit 1 or 2 wouldn`t have had a Narnia-type of a nose-dive for the next sequel. I mean, AWE was so shitty it did in fact have over $100 mio drop but it still made over 950 mio WW and 3D and expanded markets absolutely saved OST`s face. X Men was never really a true mainstream thing.

If The Hobbit movies end up being big letdowns (think Star Wars OT vs PT) that fanbase will scream "Peter Jackson raped my childhood" and attendance will suffer. Specially if they maintain the 3 hour plus runtimes. A 3 hour and 20 minute shitty Hobbit movie opening in the middle of July against a decent X-Men movie with a 2 hour runtime probably wouldn't be a good scenario.As for the X-Men not being mainstream enough. X-Men: The Last Stand opened to $102m and made $234m (or $125m/$287m adjusted) and had the 2nd biggest opening of 2006 behind DMC. X2 was no slouch either opening to $85m and making $215m (or $114m/$286m adjusted) and again good enough for 2nd best opening of 2003. If the next X-Men could return to that type of attendance it would pose a problem for The Hobbit if neither moved.

[Neo]

If The Hobbit movies end up being big letdowns (think Star Wars OT vs PT) that fanbase will scream "Peter Jackson raped my childhood" and attendance will suffer. Specially if they maintain the 3 hour plus runtimes. A 3 hour and 20 minute shitty Hobbit movie opening in the middle of July against a decent X-Men movie with a 2 hour runtime probably wouldn't be a good scenario.As for the X-Men not being mainstream enough. X-Men: The Last Stand opened to $102m and made $234m (or $125m/$287m adjusted) and had the 2nd biggest opening of 2006 behind DMC. X2 was no slouch either opening to $85m and making $215m (or $114m/$286m adjusted) and again good enough for 2nd best opening of 2003. If the next X-Men could return to that type of attendance it would pose a problem for The Hobbit if neither moved.

Imagine DofP getting the 2nd best OW of 2014, that would be crazy.

[fishstick]

Lucas raped geek childhoods with TPM and yet AOTC still made $300 mio dom and over that OS. My point is that shitty TH won`t suffer from X men competition. It cna only suffer from its shittiness.X Men minus Wolverine is weak, not qualitywise but Wolvie was the star. FC had greta reviews and WOM and dropped like regular twilight. Go figure. There`s no interest outside of fanbase. TH has much more appeal with casual movie goers who don`t care about the color of Bombur`s cloak.

[Neo]

Lucas raped geek childhoods with TPM and yet AOTC still made $300 mio dom and over that OS. My point is that shitty TH won`t suffer from X men competition. It cna only suffer from its shittiness.

X Men minus Wolverine is weak, not qualitywise but Wolvie was the star. FC had greta reviews and WOM and dropped like regular twilight. Go figure. There`s no interest outside of fanbase. TH has much more appeal with casual movie goers who don`t care about the color of Bombur`s cloak.

What does that mean?

[fishstick]

It dropped over 60%.

[cwhitty]

I am sceptical of the Hobbit part 3 being placed in the summer and it leads me to question whether a 3rd film is necessary, I mean if these films are good why not follow the same release pattern as LOTR and let the expectations build for the last film

[Shawn Robbins]

It'll definitely move, unless Jackson needs more time to finish the third Hobbit movie and they push it back to December 2014. But there's no way Fox and WB will go at each other like the schedule currently suggests. No chance, not happening.

[DAR]

What does that mean?

Only fish knows. Only fish knows.

[Dilusha Bandara]

IT is already moving!!!