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China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

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After 16 days:TA 462M yuanMI4 476.7M yuanUsually movies drop like a rock after 3 weekends in China, however MI4 was boosted by the Valentine's Day and had a big 4th week (80.4M yuan). As for TA, with MIB3 coming in 3D, the best case for its fourth week is the 60M+ yuan range.

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    [*]Weekly box office

Date: 14/05/2012 - 20/05/2012 07/05/2012 - 13/05/2012 30/04/2012 - 06/05/2012 23/04/2012 - 29/04/2012 16/04/2012 - 22/04/2012 09/04/2012 - 15/04/2012 02/04/2012 - 08/04/2012 26/03/2012 - 01/04/2012 19/03/2012 - 25/03/2012 12/03/2012 - 18/03/2012 05/03/2012 - 11/03/2012 27/02/2012 - 04/03/2012 20/02/2012 - 26/02/2012 13/02/2012 - 19/02/2012 06/02/2012 - 12/02/2012 30/01/2012 - 05/02/2012 23/01/2012 - 29/01/2012 16/01/2012 - 22/01/2012 09/01/2012 - 15/01/2012 02/01/2012 - 08/01/2012 26/12/2011 - 01/01/2012 19/12/2011 - 25/12/2011 12/12/2011 - 18/12/2011 05/12/2011 - 11/12/2011 28/11/2011 - 04/12/2011 Unit: Million us$

Rank Title Gross(M us$) Cumulative Gross(M us$) Screening days Screening numbers Admissions Average Ticket Price Distributors 1 Posted Image

The Avengers $20.46 $73.18 16 95494 3003488 $6.8 CFGC

Huaxia 2 Three Musketeers, The $4.44 $4.44 6 42511 671680 $6.6 CFGC 3 The Grey $2.86 $2.86 3 24815 516020 $5.5 Huaxia 4 Titanic $1.64 $154.21 41 11884 231880 $7.1 CFGC

Huaxia 5 Battleship $1.33 $49.78 33 17844 238924 $5.5 Huaxia

CFGC 6 Guns N’Roses $1.18 $23.85 28 20269 223273 $5.3 CFGC

Galloping Horse 7 Shadows of Love $1.09 $2.40 10 27056 215347 $5.0 Yi Ji Ying Shi Yu Le Media Co., LTD

CFGC

Huaxia

Bei Jing An Dan Yang Na Ying Shi Culture Co., LTD

Xin Ying Lian 8 Fairy Tale Killer $0.98 $2.40 10 22049 187930 $5.2 Le vision pictures (bei jing) Industry co,LTD 9 Warriors of the Rainbow $0.92 $1.61 11 11274 163992 $5.6 WanDa Media Co., LTD

Huaxia 10 Hundred Years of A Floating City $0.71 $0.71 3 14965 131140 $5.4 An Zhou Mei E Hua Tian Xia Dian Ying Fa Hang Co., LTD

Note:Screenings -- screening numbers of the week, Admissions -- admissions of the week

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I know TA numbers in China are great, but I'm a little bit disappointed, I wanted $100m :( But we won't be far from it. ;)

It may end up 90m, I guess.And my prediction for MIB3 3-day opening is 20-25 mill, very good start!
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Firedeep, May 21th 21:30pm (GMT+8) updates:

Men in Black 3 / May 21~27th Weekly Box Office Forecast

This Friday, May 25, comes with Will Smith's Men in Black 3. Will's star power was largely built in the late 1990s, especially by the two MIB films. However WS didnt have one single film on the big screen since Hancock in 2008. So is his star power still there? Can his latest filck live up to the ever expanding oversea markets ? Many wonders or doubts. Currently staying at 63% on Rottentomatoes.com, which is not a particularly high score but should be enough for a third installment that started almost 15 years ago, it seems MIB3 actually delivered after all.

Desipte no films released since 2008, Will Smith remains one of the top popular hollywood super star in China. Debuted that July 2th, Hancock collected more than 100M yuan in the Chinese theaters, ranking #5 among all the hollywood movies on the yearly chart. Will's other Chinese releases including Bad Boys(1995, 32.8M yuan, #5) and Enemy of the State (1999, 22M yuan, #4). Not too much WS movies released in China, but all of the released ones ranked the yearly top 5 hollywood films at the box office. If MIB3 can follow this trend, it has great chance of joining the $100M club, or at least should be very close to that mark.

And then how about the marketing of this film ? Sony and Mtime will co-hold its China premiere on 23th May and WS will attend. And the trailer is showing all days recently at the subways in Shanghai. Apparently Sony are really pushing it in China. How about the hype ? Well, still 3 more days to go until it hits the theatres, MIB3 has 12,000+ want to see on Mtime.com and 15,600+ want to see on Douban.com, which respectively are the top 2 movie sites in China. All we know is the figuress are not far-off to, if not higher than, Marvel's The Avengers at the same period of the time. So the marketing is good and the hype is massive, and all it needs is a big opening. However, there is still one little problem, Marvel's The Avengers, which, also coming in 3D, is just entering its third week of theatrical run. The Avengers smashed about 120M yuan(more accurate numbers available later today) last week with a cume of 450M yuan, according to recent reports. And it should still be able to do huge business this week, though a typical 50% weekly drop is expected with the arrival of MIB3. The same weekend of last year, POTC4 opened to about 145M, which is still the 3 days opening record in China. So does MIB3 have any chance of besting that ? The aneswer is yes we think. We first predicted 70M for the Will Smith movie a few days back when making the May forecast, and now with the reviews overall positive pulling in, we have no reason not to insist on that. So if it really did open to around 150M yuan. And with nearly no major competition until Madagascar 3 (June 8th), solid legs can be expected. Thus, a total of about 80M at the end of its run sounds reasonable.

So here is my final weekly(5.21~5.27) top 5 prediction:

1. Men in Black 3 150M yuan ($23.7M) New total: 150M yuan ($23.7M)

2. Marvel's The Avengers 60M yuan -50% ($9.5M) total: 510M yuan ($80.8M)

3. The Three Musketeers 7.5M yuan -70% ($1.18M) total: 32.5M yuan ($5.15M)

4. The Grey 9.6M yuan -40% ($1.5M) total: 25.6M yuan ($4.05M)

5. Titanic 3D 4.0M yuan -60% ($0.63M) total: 975M yuan ($154.5M)

Your prediction of MIB3 is quite close to mine
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