keysersoze123
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Posts posted by keysersoze123
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22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-3) - 18580/378162 279825.48 2543 shows +3758
Friday - 27674/569560 413519.36 3676 shows +7848
Amazing day for Panda. I dont know if @M37 is extrapolating where this is ending up. I want to see another day of growth. But looking at something similar to what most are seeing. Somewhere around 70K finish which should be ~3.75m previews.
Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-2) - 22161/455754 331982.79 3137 shows +3581
Friday - 35874/792963 532176.58 5336 shows +8200
Weird that Tuesday growth was less than yesterday. Friday also went up pitifully(I expected 10K). Let us see where things are tomorrow. Now I am thinking 55K finish which mean be around ~3m previews (it will actually be lower but estimated higher).
Edit: Elemental comps put it at ~3.1m. its overall 28% ahead but daily pace is tad under 10% above that and so the comps will go down.
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its not dropping 27% for sure.
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4 hours ago, YM! said:
Any ideas for True Friday based on 3.75M previews? Ik it’s not Summer and will skew older but doubling Elemental’s true Friday presales at MTC1 is great.
Let us confirm with another day of how the pace goes. Only wrinkle is the Xfinity free tickets deal. Unlike other deals, this impacts not just MTC1 but any chain on Fandango. That will boost its OW.
I am thinking 10K, 15K, 30K, 80K (its outside summer) low 160Kish finish for around 10m true friday.
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Volde was on the point like at 4PM PST.
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On 3/3/2024 at 9:12 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-4) - 14822/322836 224345.20 2106 shows +1608
Friday - 19826/475047 299899.82 2960 shows +3451
Definitely some sign of acceleration. Let us see how final stretch goes. I am still not believing in this breaking out.
Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-3) - 18580/378162 279825.48 2543 shows +3758
Friday - 27674/569560 413519.36 3676 shows +7848
Amazing day for Panda. I dont know if @M37 is extrapolating where this is ending up. I want to see another day of growth. But looking at something similar to what most are seeing. Somewhere around 70K finish which should be ~3.75m previews.
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its crap but could do well like illumination movies. So I am not sure about its BO. Let us see how presales go for this. Its release date seems sub optimal looking at number of releases. But this could still do well in the crowd.
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Just now, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:
What are you thinking for INT so far?
Depends on how high china can go. Its looking really good and I am hoping for good WOM as well. For now I would say 450m OS.
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Charlie predicting 275m finish. This was the number I expected after 1st day of presales for early imax shows. I expected 80/275 due to very strong WOM.
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On 1/24/2024 at 9:01 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Looking at early presales, I am feeling very good about this breaking out. My early prediction would be 80/275m kind of run but it could go higher. Its going to be the 1st big opener/breakout of this year.
Crazy if this comes true 🙂 Now it looks like the most optimal result though I am holding out hope for 300m dom finish.
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Unlikely that Saturday could be off that much.
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Just wanted to see how Dune is looking for 2nd weekend
Dune 2 MTC1Day 8(Friday) - 33702/504655 686411.52 2440 shows
Day 9(Saturday) - 50182/539227 945246.98 2636 shows
Its way ahead of Panda for the days and of course ATP for Dune 2 is way higher as well.
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It would be great if Dune and Zilla break out in China. I think 250m yuan OW is reasonable looking at the pace. It should hopefully get chunk of Imax in big markets and so ATP would be high.
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1 hour ago, JustLurking said:
Australia did open, IMDB is wrong.
You are right. I did not consider AU for sure. few big markets left are China, Japan and Gulf region.
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14 minutes ago, M37 said:
Just a general word of caution...
I know the box office has been boooring for a while, and Dune II is the shiny new to to play (math) with, but wouldn't try to read too much into the IM or daily fluctuations (Sat/Sun and Sun/Mon drops, etc). Not only is the film itself in its own category as far as demos, its also Spring Break period, and that added grossing potential not uniform for previous comps
Should have a fairly good idea where its heading by this upcoming Sunday. But for the record, would expect Dune II to make between ~$6.0-$7.5M on Monday (~21-26% of its Saturday gross)
You are overstimating the spring break effect. Its not across all states(my kids had week after valentine off and will have another week around Easter off as well). IM is a big deal as its weekday as a % of OW will be higher and it being adult focused will still have big Fri/Sat increases. We will definitely see WOM be a big factor for this movie.
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Dune has below markets left to open. It should add something non significant for sure. China PS is very promising. Its ahead of all 2023 Hollywood movies except Meg which was a co production.
QuoteChina March 8, 2024
United Arab Emirates March 14, 2024
Australia March 14, 2024
Bahrain March 14, 2024
Ecuador March 14, 2024
Egypt March 14, 2024
Bulgaria March 15, 2024
Japan March 15, 2024
Lithuania March 15, 2024
South Africa March 15, 2024
Kuwait April 11, 2024-
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3 hours ago, Issac Newton said:
⊃∪∩⪽ Part II (T-3)
¥9.053.500 (+¥1.954.900) at 27,040 Shows (+3,964 Shows) // 175K tix sold
Total Pre-Sales - ¥15.245.600
For COMPs
¥6.888.800 (+¥1.820.800) | Fast X (+11,483 Shows)
¥6.644.500 (+¥2.308.800) | Jurassic World: Dominion (+9,634 Shows)
¥4.632.000 (+¥1.089.100) | Oppenheimer (+5,429 Shows)
¥4.212.600 (+¥1.998.200) | Transformer: Rise Of Beast (+11,114 Shows)
¥3.585.100 (+¥1.701.900) | ⊃∪∩⪽ Part I (+9,748 Shows)
¥2.751.200 (+¥1.646.700) | Mission Impossible 7 (+10,435 Shows)
¥2.384.400 (+¥677.400) | Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3 (+6,490 Shows)
¥2.338.000 (+¥984.400) | 007: No Time To Die (+9,415 Shows)
¥1.585.600 (+¥433.600) | Expend4bles (+8,182 Shows)
¥1.364.600 (+¥509.800) | The Flash (+8,022 Shows)
Any Maoyan prediction for OW. Both daily pace and overall OD PS seem ahead of 2023 releases. I am hoping for PS to hit 30-35m and it doing something like double that for OD. With the weekend hopefully that translates to 250m yuan plus OW and finish around double that number.
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1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:
Without EA, around 9x IM right?
No huge signs of frontloaded franchise. I’m fully expecting second weekend drop to be in the low 40’s
yes. Somewhere from low 9s to 80.5m is great. with Imax selling extremely well. Look at 3PM show outside summer at lincoln sq. I am thinking 7m+ Monday(just a guess).
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What is most impressive about Dune 2 BO is its IM from previews. That bodes extremely well for its legs.
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22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-5) - 13214/322625 200562.14 2104 shows +1300
Friday - 16375/474716 248630.99 2957 shows +2495Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-4) - 14822/322836 224345.20 2106 shows +1608
Friday - 19826/475047 299899.82 2960 shows +3451
Definitely some sign of acceleration. Let us see how final stretch goes. I am still not believing in this breaking out.
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21 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
They should not, but who knows. Seems like bad karma on his end if he ditches Universal right after they helped him have massive success with Oppenheimer.I think it goes 2 ways. Nolan helped Universal as well with this. That said going back to WB sounds crazy anyway.
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Spielberg has been amazingly consistent. He rarely has delivered outright failures until very recently. BFG, west side story and fablemans are BO failures. off that I agree with WSS being a victom of COVID era BO. It was a solid movie otherwise. I am sure he can make another successful movie at the BO if he gets the right subject. But I am not sure that is his priority. He has delivered enough all time blockbusters in his times that its not a big deal any more.
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Dune 2 showcount is so disappointing. Its playing similar to Oppenheimer in this regard. China is discounting hollywood movies and so hesitate to give the show times we used to see earlier. Anyway I would be happy with 50m in China.
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41 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:
KFP4 could be number 1 next weekend...
Nah. I am confident Dune 2 wins next weekend. It will have big ATP advantage as well plus Panda 4 will be mediocre.
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I am expecting 3m boost with actuals.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Xfinity offer has been around for a while and its for Fandango and so not specific to any TC. As long as your theater sells tickets through Fandango you are good and I think most chains do that these days.